Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Resilient Nonfarm Data Crushes Bullish Sentiment as Gold Falls Below USD 5,000

13 February 2026 — Global precious metals markets were hit by a sharp shakeout during Thursday’s U.S. session. Spot gold plunged more than 3% in a single, heavy bearish candle, forcefully breaking below the key psychological level of USD 5,000. By the New York close, gold settled at USD 4,920, after touching an intraday low of USD 4,878—down as much as 4.2% and marking its lowest level since 6 February.

The core driver behind this “free fall” was the unexpectedly strong resilience of the U.S. labour market, which completely undermined market optimism for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. As rate-cut expectations faded, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets surged, placing intense pressure on gold.

Silver fared even worse, suffering a single-day collapse of nearly 10%. Not only were the previous session’s gains fully erased, but the move also triggered a broad withdrawal of safe-haven capital. Under the weight of tighter policy expectations, both gold and silver entered a synchronized correction.

Market focus has now fully shifted to the upcoming U.S. CPI inflation data. This release will serve as a critical litmus test for the Fed’s future policy path—and will be decisive in determining whether gold can stabilize above USD 4,900 and attempt another push toward the USD 5,000 milestone.

資産パフォーマンスとファンダメンタル分析

1. 米国株式市場

インデックスパフォーマンス

ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均（DJI）： 49,451.98, down 1.34%.
S&P 500 (SP500): 6,836.93, down 0.13%. The index remains range-bound near record highs as bulls and bears engage in intense positioning battles.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1): 24,829.00, up 0.25%. Amid rising global growth uncertainty, capital rotated back into mega-cap tech leaders in search of a “certainty premium.”

Stock in Focus

テスラ（TSLA）： USD 417.07, down 2.62%. Intensifying competition in the EV market and margin pressure dragged the stock lower, with prices once again testing downside support after a recent rebound—making Tesla a key drag on broader indices.

2. 外国為替市場

米ドル指数（DXY）： 96.920, up 0.01%. The dollar traded in a tight range below the 97 level as markets continued to price in the Fed’s latest policy signals.
米ドル/円: 152.865, up 0.10%. Ongoing carry trades kept the yen under pressure, with yield differentials remaining the primary driver of the pair.
ユーロ/米ドル: 1.18678, down 0.02%. Weak eurozone fundamentals capped upside potential, with the pair consolidating at low volatility near 1.19.

3. 貴金属および商品

貴金属

スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）： ~USD 4,943.10/oz, up 0.43%. Gold is consolidating below the historically significant USD 5,000 level. Persistent safe-haven demand and ongoing geopolitical risk pricing continue to underpin its broader bullish structure.
スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）： USD 75.749/oz, up 0.56%. Silver outperformed gold, reflecting bullish sentiment driven by both inflation-hedging demand and its industrial premium.

商品

原油（XTIUSD）： USD 62.90/barrel, down 0.06%. With supply and demand locked in a fragile balance, oil prices hovered near USD 63, lacking a clear short-term directional breakout.

4. 暗号資産とマクロ経済動向

ビットコイン（BTCUSD）： USD 66,027, down 0.27%. Bitcoin continued to consolidate above USD 66,000 as participants awaited clearer signals from macro liquidity conditions. Overall sentiment remained cautious.
イーサリアム（ETHUSD）： USD 1,935.5, down 0.54%. ETH underperformed Bitcoin, reflecting stagnant on-chain activity and a market preference for higher-liquidity bellwether assets amid macro uncertainty.

5. Today’s focus