Amillex Daily Market Commentary | U.S. Jobs Data Reshapes the Narrative, Gold Faces Resistance at 5,100

12 February 2026 — After the sharp volatility seen earlier this year, global precious metals markets have entered a phase of intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. During Thursday’s Asian session, spot gold hovered around the USD 5,060 level, while silver traded in a narrow range above USD 85.

U.S. January nonfarm payroll data released earlier today came in significantly stronger than expected, with job gains of 130,000 versus market forecasts of 70,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%, beating expectations. This unexpectedly resilient labor market has quickly altered rate-cut expectations, with traders pushing the anticipated timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut from June to July. As a result, both the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields rebounded, placing pressure on gold prices after they briefly touched an intraday high of USD 5,120 before pulling back.

From a macro perspective, while strong employment data provides short-term support for the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance, structural tailwinds for gold remain intact. These include sustained central bank gold purchases—particularly from the People’s Bank of China, which has been buying gold for 15 consecutive months—as well as the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

عملکرد دارایی و بررسی اجمالی بنیادی

۱. بازارهای سهام ایالات متحده

عملکرد شاخص

میانگین صنعتی داو جونز (DJI): 50,121.40, down 0.13% on the day. The index continues to hold firmly above the psychological 50,000 level.
S&P 500 (SP500): 6,941.67, down 0.07%. The index is showing caution near the key 7,000 resistance zone.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): 25,228.75, down 0.24%. Growth and technology stocks saw selective profit-taking amid recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields.

Stock in Focus

تسلا (TSLA): USD 428.27, up 0.72%. As a heavyweight constituent, Tesla showed notable resilience despite broader market weakness.

۲. بازار ارز خارجی

شاخص دلار آمریکا (DXY): 96.907, up 0.02%. The dollar remains range-bound below the 97 level as markets reprice stronger-than-expected labor data and recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials.
یورو/دلار آمریکا: 1.1876, up 0.05%. The euro edged higher on technical recovery in Eurozone fundamentals, seeking near-term support around the 1.19 level.
دلار آمریکا/ین ژاپن: 153.19, down 0.02%. The yen remains relatively stable, as expectations around the U.S.–Japan yield spread appear to have reached short-term equilibrium, keeping the pair in consolidation.

۳. فلزات گرانبها و کالاها

فلزات گرانبها

طلای اسپات (XAU/USD): USD 5,061.84/oz, down approximately 0.44%. After its sharp rally and successful hold above USD 5,000, gold is facing pressure as safe-haven demand eases and rate-cut expectations are pushed back.
نقره اسپات (XAG/USD): USD 82.31/oz, down 2.37%. Silver’s industrial exposure has come under pressure amid concerns over slowing global growth, triggering profit-taking in long positions.

کالاها

Crude Oil (WTI): USD 65.01/barrel, up 0.12%.

۴. دارایی‌های رمزنگاری‌شده و تحولات کلان

بیت کوین (BTC/USD): USD 67,408, up 0.53%. After a sharp correction earlier, Bitcoin is finding buying interest near the USD 67,000 level, suggesting risk assets remain attractive amid still-accommodative liquidity conditions.
اتریوم (ETH/USD): USD 1,952.7, up 0.62%. ETH rebounded alongside the broader market, with signs of fading bearish momentum near the key pivot below USD 2,000.

۵. تمرکز امروز