Amillex Daily Market Review | Weak US Payrolls Dampen Rate Hike Expectations; Escalating US-Iran Tensions Keep Gold Elevated

In early Asian trading on Monday, October 5, 2026, spot gold traded near $4,140/oz, maintaining its strong high-level position. September US non-farm payroll data released last week missed expectations, significantly dampening expectations for further Fed rate hikes, weighing on the US dollar while offering strong support for gold prices. However, the core driver of market direction remains rapidly escalating geopolitical friction. Over the weekend, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament made it clear that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until conditions are met, sparking a continuous influx of safe-haven buying. Meanwhile, disruptions to expansion plans caused OPEC+ to delay its capacity assessment until mid-November. With WTI crude oil trading at a high of $91.24/bbl, the strong interplay between geopolitical risks and energy prices has further fortified gold’s bullish defense.

Looking ahead, geopolitical developments will be the most critical short-term variable shaping market direction. If US-Iran tensions worsen or the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz persists, safe-haven demand combined with inflation concerns could drive gold prices further upward. Conversely, any easing of tensions could trigger profit-taking at elevated levels. Investors should closely monitor US-Iran dynamics and spillover effects from the oil market, remaining cautious amid high-level volatility.

Asset Class Trends & Fundamental Analysis

1. US Equity Market

Indices

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): At 51,182.11, up 250.00 points (+0.49%). Stepping comfortably above the 51,000 threshold, the index was driven by market pricing in a soft landing and robust earnings resilience across industrial and value sectors, led by solid megacap performance.

S&P 500 (SP500): At 7,740.08, up 13.35 points (+0.17%). The broader market held elevated range-bound trading above 7,700. With modest cross-sector earnings expectations, the market remains in a phase of structural consolidation ahead of clearer inflation data and interest rate trajectories.

Nasdaq 100 (NQ1!): At 31,155.75, up 94.00 points (+0.30%). The interplay between tech earnings expectations and high-valuation digests continued, leaving the index consolidating tightly above 31,000.

Stock Highlights

Apple (AAPL): At $333.69, up 1.02%. Supported by steady end-user demand and robust hardware cash flows, the stock held firm above $330.
Tesla (TSLA): At $370.59, surging 4.65%. Leading gains among tech giants, the stock attracted heavy buying interest on rate-cut expectations, consumer discretionary strength, and autonomous driving re-evaluations.
Alphabet (GOOG): At $340.35, up 1.62%. Clearer AI monetization paths helped maintain elevated, bullish momentum.
Amazon (AMZN): At $251.52, up 1.33%. Easing concerns over slowing cloud growth brought capital back into this dual-engine retail and cloud play.

Intel (INTC): At $119.33, down 0.56%. Structural divergence within semiconductors left legacy chipmakers under pressure due to capacity transitions and CapEx demands.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

US Dollar Index (DXY): At 101.952, edging up 0.03%. The dollar fluctuated in an extremely narrow range below 102 as the lack of clear direction on future Fed policy kept the market in wait-and-see mode.
EUR/USD: At 1.12470, down 0.01%. ECB rate cut expectations and subdued economic fundamentals capped upside momentum, leaving the euro moving sideways around 1.1250.
USD/JPY: At 157.784, down 0.02%. Elevated US-Japan yield differentials restricted any meaningful yen rebound, holding the pair near 158.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): At $4,148.03/oz, up $7.51 (+0.18%). Gold firmly held above the $4,100 milestone. Geopolitical tail risks and expected global central bank balance sheet expansion continue to build a strong safe-haven premium into the non-yielding asset.
Spot Silver (SILVER): At $60.824/oz, up 0.62%. Crossing the $60 psychological barrier, silver outperformed gold as industrial demand and precious metal safe-haven flows resonated together.

Commodities

Crude Oil (XTIUSD): At $92.45/bbl, down $1.02 (-1.09%). Pulling back from highs above $90, oil prices reflected a tug-of-war between weak global demand forecasts and supply-side geopolitical risk premiums, prompting short-term profit-taking.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Trends

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): At $86,437, down 0.08%. BTC continued sideways consolidation within the $86,000–$87,000 range. As macro liquidity expectations plateau, capital moved into range trading and position adjustments.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): At $2,727.43, up 0.03%. Prices formed a base near the key $2,700 support. On-chain activity and dApp demand are in a recovery/observation phase, tracking overall market chop.

5. Key Events Today