Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Dismal Non-Farm Payrolls Propel Gold to Reclaim Lost Ground; Oil Prices Stabilize and Fluctuate Ahead of the Long Weekend

On July 3, 2026, driven by the dual factors of a shifting outlook on macro policies and holiday demand, the global commodity markets displayed prominent defensive characteristics. During the early Asian session, spot gold bulls flexed their muscles once again, keeping the metal trading steadily around $4,130. The core momentum of this rebound stems from the significantly weak U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) data for June. Both wage growth and employment gains fell far short of market expectations, directly triggering institutional reassessments of the Federal Reserve’s future policy path. The previously stubborn hawkish rate-hike expectations cooled rapidly after the data “disappointment,” and the temporary relief of upward pressure on real interest rates prompted funds to flow back into the precious metals market.

Meanwhile, the energy market also demonstrated strong resilience ahead of the holiday, with WTI crude oil consolidating sideways around $68.46 per barrel. In addition to the tailwinds of a softer U.S. dollar brought by the NFP data, Friday marks the start of the U.S. Independence Day long weekend. Potential uncertainties in market supply and demand prompted some short-term traders to take profits before the holiday. Simultaneously, spot buyers flooded the market to replenish inventories to ensure supply security during the break. The combination of these two capital forces provided structural, phase-level support for oil prices. As liquidity thins over the holiday period, market attention will shift further toward the actual recovery resilience of global supply chains.

Market Summary and Fundamental Analysis of Asset Classes

1. U.S. Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 52,905.28 points, surging 595.06 points or 1.14% intraday. As the market digests long-term macro policy uncertainties, capital exhibited a distinct shift from “growth to value.” Cross-asset safe-haven buying drove the Dow sharply higher, led by heavyweight blue-chip value stocks.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Closed at 7,480.00 (7.48K) points, down 16.13 points or 0.22% intraday. The S&P 500 faced clear resistance above the 7,500 psychological barrier, primarily dragged down by significant profit-taking among certain core, highly valued tech giants, as capital rotated into traditional defensive sectors with resilient cash flows.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Closed at 29,576.50 points, up slightly by 20.50 points or 0.07%. The tech-heavy index faced pressure from high-level valuation corrections, entering a sideways consolidation phase above its previous dense trading zone.

Stock Highlights

Apple (AAPL): Traded at $308.63, bucking the trend with a sharp gain of 4.84%, gaining $14.25 in a single day. Against the backdrop of intense divergence within the mega-cap tech sector, Apple’s defensive attribute as a global liquidity “safe haven” was highlighted once again, with the stock stabilizing above the $300 key psychological level.
Tesla (TSLA): Traded at $393.45, plunging $31.85 or 7.49% intraday. Weighted down by a dual blow of fundamental expectation revisions and high-level long-position liquidations, the stock suffered a severe technical pullback, acting as the core drag on growth stock performance for the day.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Currently at 100.979, up 0.131 points or 0.13% intraday. The U.S. dollar stabilized and rebounded below the 101 mark. Although the market remains divided over the Fed’s medium-to-long-term interest rate path, cross-asset safe-haven buying provided indirect support, meaning the dollar’s liquidity premium is unlikely to dissipate entirely in the short term.
USD/JPY: Currently at 161.466, up 0.345 or 0.21% intraday. Depreciating pressure on the yen intensified further, approaching the 162 milestone. Despite repeated verbal intervention signals from the Bank of Japan, speculative carry trades remained active due to the macroeconomic reality of a wide core interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, leading to continuous capital outflows.
EUR/USD: Currently at 1.14225, down 0.00106 or 0.09% intraday. Accompanying the marginal recovery of the U.S. dollar, the euro fluctuated and retraced part of its recent gains. Weak industrial and growth fundamentals within core Eurozone economies continued to restrict the euro’s upward breakthrough momentum.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Traded at $4,138.29 per ounce, rising $14.79 or 0.36% intraday. Gold extended its historic upward channel above $4,100, remaining unconstrained by the dollar’s rebound. The resonance of institutional macro risks and the reassessment of medium-to-long-term inflation expectations supported robust buying of the traditional hard currency.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Traded at $61.21650 per ounce, advancing steadily by 0.24350 or 0.40% intraday. Driven by both its industrial and financial attributes, silver maintained its highly volatile posture.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Currently at $68.76 per barrel, down marginally by $0.05 or 0.07% intraday. The energy market’s pricing of potential geopolitical supply disruptions and the weakening global macroeconomic demand outlook constrained one another, locking oil prices into a narrow tug-of-war within the $68–$70 per barrel pivot zone.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Last traded at $61,288, down $191 or 0.31% intraday. Following a prolonged period of tight range-bound trading, Bitcoin continued its technical consolidation above key psychological levels, impacted by the reassessment of overall macro liquidity expectations and a short-term cooling of market risk appetite.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Last traded at $1,698.08, down slightly by $0.55 or 0.03% intraday. ETH’s performance lagged slightly behind gold and blue-chip equity assets, fluctuating within a tight range below the $1,700 mark. This reflects that in a safe-haven sentiment-driven market, the appeal of high-beta digital assets has temporarily yielded to traditional high-certainty assets.

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