Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Sudden Changes in the Middle East Situation Affect Sentiment, Gold Prices Fluctuate at High Levels While Oil Prices Rebound Significantly

On April 20, 2026, the global commodities market showed a clearly divergent trend at Monday’s opening. Impacted by rising uncertainty in the external situation over the weekend, spot gold did not continue its strength in early Asian trading. Instead, it opened lower technically, trading near USD 4,776 and retesting the key support level of USD 4,750 intraday. Although risk alerts in the relevant region continue, gold price movements reflect that the market is undergoing intense position reshuffling and profit-taking amid extreme volatility. Investors are currently divided on whether safe-haven premiums have been overvalued. The market is in a stage of assessing the deviation between risks and fundamentals. In the short term, the gold market may seek a new confidence center amid wide-range fluctuations.

Compared with gold’s caution, the crude oil market showed strong aggressiveness. As important shipping routes were blocked again, supply-side concerns quickly attracted buying interest. U.S. crude oil rebounded more than 7% at Monday’s opening, with prices returning above USD 88 per barrel. Although relevant parties warned that sentiment-driven trading behavior carries premium risks, market funds’ hedging operations against supply shortages remained significant. This round of oil price recovery is not only a direct result of localized friction, but also a strong reaction to damaged expectations for supply chain stability. The market outlook needs to closely monitor substantive developments in the situation. If supply disruption logic continues to intensify, energy volatility will further transmit into macro inflation expectations, thereby affecting the repricing of global assets.

Market Performance and Fundamental Analysis of Various Assets

1. U.S. Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Reported at 49,447.43. Rose sharply by 868.71 points intraday, up 1.79%. Showing strong resilience near the 50,000-point milestone, funds clearly flowed back into value stocks and industrial heavyweights, with the market holding positive expectations for the breadth of real economic recovery.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Reported around 7.02K. Rose 0.80% intraday. The index successfully held above the 7,000-point psychological level. Although the technology sector showed some divergence, overall market breadth improved, and the joint strength of defensive and cyclical sectors supported the index center.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1): Reported at 26,648.75. Fell 176.75 points, down 0.66%. Against the backdrop of a higher overall market, the Nasdaq underperformed, reflecting that high-valuation growth stocks are undergoing technical valuation corrections amid fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields.

Stock Highlights

Tesla (TSLA) and Apple (AAPL): Performed strongly, rising 3.01% and 2.59% respectively. TSLA reported USD 400.62, breaking a key psychological level; AAPL reported USD 270.23. Core technology heavyweights regained fundamental-driven buying after previous adjustments.
Google (GOOG): Reported USD 341.68, up 1.68%, continuing its recent upward trend driven by AI.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Currently around 98.279. Up slightly 0.05% intraday. The dollar maintained a narrow range above the 98 level. Although uncertainty remains regarding the Federal Reserve’s policy path, the liquidity premium of the dollar as a pricing currency remains solid amid global macro uncertainty.
USD/JPY (USDJPY): Reported at 159.036. Up 0.26% intraday. The exchange rate moved closer again to the key 160 level. The high U.S.-Japan interest rate spread and the slow normalization process of Bank of Japan policy continued to pressure yen carry trades, with capital maintaining an outflow trend.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): Reported at 1.17547. Slightly down 0.10%. Limited by insufficient endogenous growth momentum in Europe, the euro failed to break recent resistance under pressure from a stronger dollar.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Reported around USD 4,765.20 per ounce. Saw a relatively clear pullback intraday, down 1.42%. Gold prices encountered profit-taking after bullish factors were fully priced in at historical highs, and the market is repricing the retreat of safe-haven sentiment caused by geopolitical easing or rising real interest rates.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Reported at USD 79.459 per ounce. Down 1.18%. Silver retreated in tandem with gold, reflecting that precious metals as a whole entered a consolidation phase during a macro logic transition period.

Commodities

Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Reported at USD 90.83 per barrel. Recorded a significant gain of 5.03% intraday. Oil prices broke through the USD 90 resistance in one move, not only reflecting potential supply-side disruptions, but also showing the market pricing in accelerating recovery of global industrial activity.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Reported around USD 74,181. Slightly up 0.48% intraday. After previous sharp volatility, BTC is currently seeking a new support balance point above USD 74,000, while institutional holders’ position structures tend to stabilize.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Reported around USD 2,275.01. Up 0.49%. ETH moved broadly in line with the wider market. Its on-chain activity and technical logic are in a bottom-building stage of a recovery cycle amid improving macro risk appetite.

5. Today’s Focus