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Amillex Daily Market Review | Geopolitical Turmoil and Hawkish Pressure: Gold Pulls Back While Oil Surges

On September 25, 2026, global financial markets experienced heightened volatility driven by escalating geopolitics and shifting hawkish expectations surrounding monetary policy. Spot gold traded around $4,271.36 per ounce during early Asian trading hours, hitting a one-week low intraday. This downward pressure on gold was primarily driven by rising oil prices pushing up inflation expectations, alongside Federal Reserve officials adopting a more hawkish tone and strengthening market expectations for further interest rate hikes, which suppressed short-term bullish momentum. 

Meanwhile, energy markets experienced violent fluctuations due to a sudden tightening of tensions in the Middle East. WTI crude oil traded around $94.40 per barrel, having previously surged to a one-week high, triggered by Houthi forces launching a missile at Saudi Arabia, which once again ignited deep market concerns over global crude oil supply disruptions. However, oil prices narrowed their intraday gains as news emerged that the US and Iran were discussing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The future trajectory of prices will remain highly dependent on the substantive progress of geopolitical conflicts and guidance from US macroeconomic data. 

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis 

1. US Stock Market 

Index Performance 

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): The index fluctuated in a narrow range near recent highs. Weighted value stocks traded cautiously during the macroeconomic data vacuum, and the market is closely digesting the uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s subsequent rate path. 
  • S&P 500 Index (SP500): The index encountered a tug-of-war between bulls and bears after approaching key whole-number milestones previously. Technical pullback pressure emerged, and capital gradually concentrated in defensive sectors to hedge against policy-driven disruptions. 
  • Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1): The technology sector experienced divergent adjustments overall. High-valuation growth assets came under pressure amid long-term yield volatility, causing market sentiment to turn wait-and-see. 

Individual Stock Focus 

  • Apple (AAPL): The stock showed strong resilience against declines during the general sell-off cycle of mega-cap tech stocks, with institutional funds maintaining high-level consolidation positioning near key support levels. 

2. Foreign Exchange Market 

  • US Dollar Index (DXY): The US dollar maintained a narrow, slightly soft consolidation stance. Although the Fed’s policy stance remains data-dependent, diverging expectations between global liquidity and other major economy central banks put the dollar under pressure near critical thresholds. 
  • USD/JPY (USDJPY): The exchange rate maintained wide fluctuations at high levels. The ongoing tug-of-war between the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy normalization expectations and the reality of US-Japan interest rate differentials kept carry trade capital flows sensitive. 
  • EUR/USD (EURUSD): The euro hovered below dense resistance levels. Weak recovery momentum in the eurozone’s fundamentals limited its upward breakthrough space during periods of temporary US dollar softness. 

3. Precious Metals and Commodities 

Precious Metals 

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): According to TradingView data (see attached chart XAUUSD, H1), gold prices recently experienced a corrective pullback from highs above approximately $4,380 per ounce, stabilizing after dipping intraday to the $4,245 per ounce region, and are currently consolidating narrowly around $4,267.16. Following consecutive surges earlier, profit-taking pressure from longs was released in stages. Combined with repetitive real interest rate expectations, precious metals have entered a phase of high-level technical correction. 
  • Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Silver fluctuated following the overall rhythm of precious metals. Interwoven with industrial and safe-haven attributes, its intraday elasticity remained significantly higher than that of gold. 

Commodities 

  • Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Crude oil prices maintained a resilient, oscillating bullish structure near key resistance bands, with the geopolitical risk premium and uncertainty on the Middle East supply side continuing to provide a solid floor and support for short-term oil prices. 

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics 

  • Bitcoin (BTCUSD): After encountering technical resistance at previous highs, crypto assets overall presented a volume-backed pullback posture. Expectations of marginal tightening in macro liquidity heightened the willingness of short-term profit-takers to exit. 
  • Ethereum (ETHUSD): Ethereum’s performance continued to lag behind the broader market. During phases of escalating risk-averse sentiment, capital tended to flow toward traditional hard currencies and high-liquidity assets, suppressing its valuation on the trading board. 

5. Key Focus Events Today 

  • Bank of England (BOE) Governor Bailey Speech 
  • US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Final) 
  • US University of Michigan Inflation Expectations (Final)