December 31, 2025. As we approach the final closing bell of 2025, the global markets have fully transitioned into “Holiday Mode.” With institutional desks largely sidelined, the narrative has shifted away from macro fundamentals toward technical position squaring and margin-driven volatility. While equities remain under mild pressure from year-end profit-taking, the precious metals complex has stolen the spotlight, enduring a violent deleveraging event in a thin liquidity environment. The US Dollar Index maintained range-bound consolidation, as the core market conflict shifted from macro data to positioning, margins, and year-end fund allocations. 

按資產類別劃分的市場表現與基本面分析 

1. US Stock Market 

指數表現： The three major U.S. indices were generally weak, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all closing slightly lower. The market lacks a clear main theme, and trading volume is significantly lower than normal, displaying typical year-end characteristics. 

2. 外匯市場： 

• The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged slightly higher but failed to form a trend breakout, reflecting strong wait-and-see sentiment;  

• EUR/USD fluctuated above 1.17, lacking new catalysts;  

• USD/JPY maintained consolidation in the 156–157 range, retreating from highs with limited downward momentum;  

• GBP/USD was relatively resilient, performing slightly better than the Euro, but was similarly restricted by holiday liquidity.  

驅動因素： The FX market has entered a typical “year-end consolidation phase,” where short-term movements are more technical fluctuations than trend-trading windows. 

3. Precious Metals and Commodities 

貴金屬：  

• Spot gold (XAUUSD): Despite short-term pressure, it continues to trade within historical high regions, indicating that the medium-to-long-term bullish structure has not been compromised.  

• Spot silver (XAGUSD): Following a plunge the previous day, silver saw a strong technical rebound, rising over 9% to approximately the $78/oz level (rebounding from the post-selling pressure low to the day’s peak). This “sharp drop followed by a sharp rise” is a classic manifestation of “margin adjustments → forced liquidations → reverse buying/bottom fishing. 

核心驅動因素： 

• Previous “squeeze-style” rallies accumulated a large number of high-leverage longs; 

• Thin year-end liquidity amplified any concentrated closing of positions; 

• Increased exchange margins and risk control requirements triggered passive deleveraging. 

商品：  

• WTI Crude Oil maintained fluctuations around $58/barrel. The trend remains relatively stable, acting as a stabilizer within the energy sector. 

5. 今日重點 

• December FOMC Meeting Minutes. 

• China’s manufacturing PMI for December. 

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending Dec 27.