Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Tariff Tensions Reignite, Gold Targets the 4700 Level

On January 20, 2026, global markets faced a dual squeeze from tariff uncertainty and geopolitical maneuvering, driving safe-haven demand to new highs. Spot gold surged over 1.5% on Monday, extending its rally to a record USD 4690.46 per ounce and approaching the key USD 4700 level. Spot silver maintained strong upside momentum, trading near USD 93.40, though price action shifted into high-level consolidation after briefly testing the historic USD 94.099 zone. In contrast, U.S. crude oil remained relatively stable around USD 59.36 per barrel, as easing unrest in Iran offset part of the geopolitical risk premium. Overall, escalating trade tensions linked to the Greenland issue are accelerating capital flows into physical assets, with market volatility entering a new expansion phase.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Markets

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Currently around 49,360 points (-0.17%). The index is consolidating near previous highs, reflecting the high sensitivity of traditional industrial sectors to potential trade frictions.
S&P 500 Index: Currently around 6,880 points (-0.06%). Although the 7,000-point milestone is within reach, investor sentiment remains cautious. Capital flows show clear structural divergence, with defensive sectors favored.
Nasdaq Composite Index: Currently around 23,350 points (-0.06%). Technology stocks remain relatively resilient, supported by strong fundamentals in the AI chip supply chain, offsetting some of the risk-off selling pressure caused by tariff uncertainty.

Stock highlight

NVIDIA (NVDA): Closing at approximately USD 186.23. The stock is currently in a phase of position rotation, and investors should be alert to potential margin pressure from the pass-through of supply chain costs.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Currently around 99.05, edging lower on the day with a decline of about 0.34%.
EUR/USD: At 1.1640. Due to U.S. tariff threats against certain European countries, the euro continues to test support at lower levels. Despite a modest technical rebound intraday, the pair may break below the psychological 1.1600 level if the Greenland issue and trade retaliation measures worsen further.
USD/JPY: At 158.09. The Japanese yen has found some breathing room in extremely oversold territory and is attempting to form a short-term base near the 158.00 level.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Targeting the 4700 level. Gold remains exceptionally strong today, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and intensifying U.S.–EU tariff frictions, triggering an explosive inflow of safe-haven capital.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): After breaking above the USD 93 level, prices reached an intraday high near the historic zone of USD 94.099 per ounce. Although prices retreated to around USD 93.40 during the North American session, reflecting some profit-taking divergence at extreme highs, the broader uptrend remains firmly intact under the macro re-pricing narrative.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil: Currently around USD 59.36 per barrel. In the absence of additional bullish catalysts, market focus has shifted toward demand-side concerns, keeping oil prices in a weak consolidation below the USD 60 level.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTC): Risk-off sentiment weighs, pulling prices back toward the 92,000 support level. Affected by liquidity concerns stemming from U.S.–EU tariff frictions, Bitcoin failed to rally alongside gold and instead came under pressure, currently trading around USD 92,580.
Ethereum (ETH): Showing notable strength today and moving independently, currently around USD 3,175. After an extended period of base consolidation, ETH has finally released strong catch-up momentum, successfully reclaiming and holding above the critical USD 3,100 threshold.

5. Today’s Focus