On June 23, 2026, the global commodity market experienced a drastic restructuring due to a major shift in supply chain expectations. As relevant multilateral dialogues made substantial progress in Switzerland, long-term inflation concerns previously triggered by supply-side tightness were significantly alleviated. Affected by this, international oil prices faced obvious selling pressure intraday, with US crude oil (WTI) dropping over 3% in a single day to around $74.14/barrel. The volatility of the commodity leader quickly adjusted market inflation expectations, which in turn had a profound impact on liquidity allocation across the entire multi-asset market.
In the precious metals sector, spot gold demonstrated immense resilience after falling continuously last week. Gold prices stabilized and rebounded after hitting a bottom on Monday, shaking higher during the US session and trading around $4,191/ounce in the early Asian session on Tuesday. Although previous tightening signals from the Federal Reserve and expectations of another interest rate hike within the year continued to weigh on gold, the capital reallocation brought about by lower oil prices, combined with the rational transition of market funds from previous highs toward the “uncertainty of the agreement implementation period,” successfully supported gold prices to rebound strongly from a more than one-week low. Looking ahead, the market will closely track the signing details of the final agreement and the actual recovery speed of the commodity supply chain. In the short term, a pattern of gold shaking to build a bottom has begun to emerge.
Asset Market Performance and Fundamental Analysis
1. US Stock Market
Index Performance
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Reported at approximately 7,500 points. Up 80.48 points or 1.08% during the day. Supported by the sector rotation of heavyweight components, the index successfully overcame the downward pressure of some large-cap tech stocks, maintaining an overall biased-bullish pattern of volatile upward movement.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Reported at 51,718.16. Up 147.99 points or 0.29% during the day. Value stocks and traditional cyclical sectors performed robustly, showing that during a phase of macro policy uncertainty, defensive funds flowed into traditional blue chips with high cash flows and low valuations.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Reported at 30,591.25. Down 62.25 points or 0.20% during the day. Due to a clear divergence among tech giants, core Nasdaq tech assets faced pressure at high levels, suppressing the overall rebound space for tech growth stocks.
Stock Focus
Intel (INTC): Reported at $140.94, bucking the trend to surge 5.19%. Benefiting from specific fundamental positives or industry spread expectations, funds engaged in defensive high-to-low switching within the tech sector, driving the stock price up strongly.
Tesla (TSLA): Reported at $405.05, up 1.14% during the day. The stock price stood firm above the $400 psychological milestone, maintaining a strong beta attribute against the backdrop of recovering risk appetite in the overall US stock market.
Apple (AAPL): Reported at $297.01, down slightly by 0.34%. It experienced a technical callback near historical highs, but the overall retracement amplitude remained controllable, and it continues to play the role of a safe-haven defensive pool.
2. Foreign Exchange Market
Dollar Index (DXY): Currently reported at 101.043. Up slightly by 0.05% during the day. The Dollar Index fluctuated within a narrow range above the 101 mark. Although recent macroeconomic data or the Federal Reserve’s stance led the market to adjust the interest rate cut path, the relative weakness of non-US currencies provided the US dollar with certain interest rate differential and liquidity premium support.
Euro/US Dollar (EURUSD): Reported at 1.14227. Down slightly by 0.04% during the day. Sluggish economic prosperity in Europe and potential geopolitical premiums limited the upside of the Euro. The exchange rate continued its inventory game around 1.14, lacking fundamental-driven breakthrough momentum.
US Dollar/Japanese Yen (USDJPY): Reported at 161.560. Down slightly by 0.02% during the day. Depreciation pressure on the Yen remains heavy, maintaining its operation at a high level around 161.5. Although verbal interventions from Bank of Japan officials still serve as warnings, Yen short-selling arbitrage trades remain active under the macroeconomic constraint that the substantial US-Japan interest rate differential is difficult to narrow quickly.
3. Precious Metals and Commodities
Precious Metals
Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Reported at approximately $4,178.99/ounce. Down $12.52 or 0.30% during the day. As risk appetite in the US stock market recovered periodically and the Dollar Index maintained resilience, gold experienced a slight technical correction at high levels. In the short term, bullish sentiment has stabilized slightly, and funds are looking for new macro catalysts (such as a revival of inflation expectations or a rebound in safe-haven premiums).
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Reported at $64.6055/ounce. Down 0.75% during the day. The high-volatility characteristic of silver emerged once again. Resonating with the retracement of gold and macro uncertainties on the industrial demand side, its intraday performance was weaker than that of gold.
Commodities
Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Reported at $74.80/barrel. Up slightly by 0.08% during the day. In the short term, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range below the $75 resistance level. The risk premium from potential disruptions on the Middle East supply side intertwined with concerns over global macroeconomic demand, leaving the commodity market as a whole in a sideways consolidation phase of fundamental long-short wrestling.
4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Latest reported at approximately $63,890. Down slightly by 0.09% during the day. After surging earlier, BTC continued to fluctuate below the key pivot level of $64,000. Under the current background where the macro interest rate path remains unclear, incremental liquidity for digital assets is relatively limited, and the market is dominated by inventory games and technical adjustments.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Reported at approximately $1,723.46. Down 0.16% during the day. Its overall performance extended its relative weakness against BTC, reflecting a shift in global macro risk appetite toward traditional high-liquidity hard currencies, causing speculative premiums in the crypto derivatives market to converge to some extent in the short term.
5. Focus Today
France Flash Manufacturing PMI
France Flash Services PMI
Germany Flash Manufacturing PMI
Germany Flash Services PMI
UK Flash Manufacturing PMI
UK Flash Services PMI
BOC Governor Macklem speech
US Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI
US Markit Flash Services PMI
