現在ご覧いただいているのは Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Easing Supply Chain Expectations Trigger Sharp Oil Selloff While Renewed Tightening Expectations Reinforce Gold’s Resilience 

アミレックス・デイリー・マーケット・コメンタリー｜サプライチェーンの緩和への期待が原油価格の急落を引き起こす一方、新たな引き締めへの期待が金価格の底堅さを強める 

On May 25, 2026, the global commodities market opened with dramatic divergence. Following weekend media reports that relevant countries had reached a memorandum framework regarding the restoration of strait passage and the extension of a ceasefire, market concerns over disruptions to energy supply chains rapidly cooled. During the Asian session, bullish positions in U.S. crude oil (WTI) faced aggressive liquidation, with prices gapping down more than 5% and briefly testing a session low near USD 91.25 per barrel. The rapid unwinding of supply-demand risk premiums pushed international oil prices into a technical correction phase after previous geopolitical pricing, while market focus for the next directional move has now fully shifted toward the next round of formal talks tentatively scheduled for June 5. 

However, the partial easing of supply chain expectations failed to suppress gold’s bullish momentum. Spot gold surged more than 1% during the Asian session, continuing to trade firmly above USD 2,580 per ounce while demonstrating strong intraday upside momentum. Despite recent hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Waller urging markets to abandon dovish policy expectations, which pushed the probability of a rate hike this year to 67.1%, gold prices continued to exhibit remarkable liquidity resilience amid the bearish pressure of rising nominal interest rates. This indicates that within the multi-asset allocation framework, long-term structural demand and macro inflation anchoring effects continue to provide deep underlying support for gold. In the short term, the psychological level of USD 2,600 per ounce remains the core upside target for bullish positioning. 

資産クラスのパフォーマンスとファンダメンタル分析 

1. U.S. Equity Market 

インデックスパフォーマンス 

  • ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均（DJI）: Reported at 50,585.07. Up 294.05 points intraday, gaining +0.58%. The index successfully held above the 50,000 mark, while value blue-chip sectors demonstrated resilient rebound momentum after prior pullbacks from elevated levels. Capital flows are currently seeking a temporary balance between defensive and expansion-oriented positioning. 
  • S&P500指数（SP500）: Reported around 7.47K (7,470). Up 27.75 points intraday, rising +0.37%. The index continues to consolidate within elevated ranges, with market focus shifting from singular macro policy expectations toward defensive concentration in mega-cap technology fundamentals. 
  • ナスダック100指数（NQ1！）: Reported at 29,874.75. Strongly advanced by 316.00 points, gaining +1.07%. Technology shares significantly outperformed the broader market, as the growth certainty surrounding AI infrastructure and core hardware assets once again became the primary driver of capital inflows. 

主要銘柄 

  • テスラ（TSLA）: Reported at USD 426.01, rising 1.95% intraday. The stock received support at key technical levels, with high-beta growth equities showing early signs of elasticity amid marginal easing in liquidity expectations. 
  • アップル（AAPL）: Reported at USD 308.82, gaining 1.26% intraday. As a defensive technology leader with strong cash flow generation and a deep competitive moat, Apple continues to function as a capital “safe haven.” 
  • インテル（INTC）: Reported at USD 119.84, rising 1.13% intraday. The stock followed the broader recovery across semiconductor and AI hardware sectors. 

2. 外国為替市場 

  • 米ドル指数（DXY）: Currently reported around 99.015. Down 0.304 points intraday, declining -0.31%. The dollar faced pressure near the 99 level. Although the Federal Reserve’s stance on the long-term interest rate path remains neutral-to-hawkish, the gradual stabilization of policy uncertainties among major overseas economies has led to a marginal unwinding of previously accumulated risk premiums in the dollar. 
  • ユーロ／米ドル（EURUSD）: Reported at 1.16415. Slightly up 0.33% intraday. The pair staged a passive rebound alongside dollar weakness; however, due to persistent structural growth challenges within the Eurozone economy, the euro has yet to achieve a meaningful trend breakout. 
  • 米ドル／円（USDJPY）: Reported at 158.906. Down 0.19% intraday. The exchange rate remained in a narrow consolidation below the 159 level. Potential verbal intervention regarding monetary policy normalization by the Bank of Japan, combined with partial safe-haven inflows, provided limited support to the yen. Nevertheless, capital outflow pressures remain under the backdrop of substantial interest rate differentials. 

3. 貴金属および商品 

貴金属 

  • スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）: Reported around USD 4,572.51 per ounce. Surged USD 65.55 intraday, gaining +1.45%. Gold prices continue to rally aggressively within a historic upward channel. As the logic surrounding long-end U.S. Treasury real yields becomes increasingly weakened by inflation expectations and credit risk hedging demand, gold’s traditional status as an absolute hard currency safe haven has been significantly amplified by bullish sentiment. 
  • スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）: Reported around USD 78.4555 per ounce. Soared 3.89% intraday. Due to its dual role as both a safe-haven and industrial asset, silver’s volatility elasticity significantly outperformed gold, while speculative bullish inflows accelerated notably. 

商品 

  • WTI原油（XTIUSD）: Currently reported around USD 94.85 per barrel. Suffered a sharp decline intraday, plunging USD 5.41 or -5.40%. Previously priced-in geopolitical supply premiums within the energy market experienced a rapid unwind, while weakening global macro demand expectations placed additional pressure on the commodity’s cyclical attributes, triggering panic-style long liquidation at elevated levels. 

4. 暗号資産とマクロ経済動向 

  • ビットコイン（BTCUSD）: Latest reported price around USD 77,113. Slightly up 0.18% intraday. Amid heightened volatility across major asset classes, BTC entered a narrow consolidation range around the USD 77,000 level, suggesting that earlier profit-taking pressure has largely been absorbed as the market awaits a new macro liquidity catalyst. 
  • イーサリアム（ETHUSD）: Reported around USD 2,103.14. Slightly up 0.28% intraday. ETH has continued to underperform both BTC and traditional precious metals recently, reflecting its more pronounced risk-asset characteristics within a risk-off dominated market structure, while capital allocation appetite toward ETH remains cautious. 

5. 今日の焦点 

  • なし