Vous consultez actuellement Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Inflation Pressures Gold Below Key Support as Macro Bull-Bear Battle Sends Oil Prices Sharply Lower

Commentaire quotidien d'Amillex sur les marchés | L'inflation fait chuter l'or sous un support clé, tandis que la bataille macroéconomique entre acheteurs et vendeurs entraîne une forte baisse des prix du pétrole

On May 28, 2026, global multi-asset markets remained deeply entrenched in correction territory amid tightening policy expectations and a complex macro battle between bullish and bearish forces. During Thursday’s session, spot gold traded near USD 4,459 per ounce, extending the weak momentum seen on Wednesday when prices fell to a two-month low and approached the critical USD 4,400 psychological level. As inflationary pressures continue to rise, market expectations for major central banks to maintain high interest rates or even further tighten monetary policy have intensified significantly, with elevated real yields becoming a sword hanging over bullish positions. Although the market recently disclosed preliminary informal documents related to trade and bilateral memorandum understandings, briefly triggering a decline in geopolitical premiums, subsequent official statements expressing dissatisfaction with the negotiation progress once again cast a shadow over the easing process. Under the dual pressure of tightening fundamentals and policy uncertainty, bullish momentum has steadily retreated, leaving gold facing a critical test of key support levels in the short term.

Meanwhile, the energy market also suffered a ruthless wave of profit-taking and sentiment-driven volatility. U.S. crude oil recorded a single-day decline of more than 4% on Wednesday, decisively breaking below the important USD 90 per barrel threshold. Although optimistic headlines regarding “positive progress” in multilateral negotiations repeatedly surfaced in the market, accelerating the removal of prior supply disruption risk premiums, official rhetoric from both sides has remained highly aggressive, leaving substantial uncertainty surrounding the implementation of any future agreements. This contradictory sentiment — where “external tensions remain unresolved while demand expectations weaken first” — has led to structural adjustments in bullish capital positioning. Looking ahead, if major officials continue releasing hawkish signals following upcoming fundamental economic data, the broader commodity market may face deeper liquidity pressure, while the actual evolution of supply-demand dynamics will remain the core variable determining whether oil prices can establish a sustainable bottom defense.

Analyse fondamentale et de la performance des actifs

1. Marché des actions américaines

Performance de l'indice

  • Indice industriel Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 50,649.07 points, rising 182.02 points intraday, or 0.36%. After stabilizing above the 50,000-point milestone, the index continued to demonstrate strong cyclical resilience, with capital moderately rotating toward traditional value stocks and defensive heavyweight sectors during the macro policy tug-of-war.
  • Indice S&P 500 (SP500): Closed around 7,470 points (quoted at 7.47K), up 27.75 points intraday, or 0.37%. The index maintained a steady upward consolidation near historical highs as markets gradually absorbed the ongoing battle between inflation expectations and the policy interest rate trajectory, while overall risk appetite remained stable.
  • Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ1!): Reported at 29,993.75 points, down 53.50 points intraday, or 0.18%. Technical selling pressure emerged near the critical 30,000-point threshold, while divergence among core technology assets limited further upside breakthroughs for tech-led indices.

Focus sur les actions individuelles

  • Intel (INTC): Internal logic within the semiconductor sector underwent correction, placing pressure on key individual names. Intel fell 1.42% intraday to USD 121.77, significantly dragging on Nasdaq performance.

2. Marché des changes

  • Indice du dollar américain (DXY): Currently at 99.286, up 0.07% intraday. Although long-term rate cut expectations continue to create pressure, weak internal growth momentum across major overseas economies, combined with safe-haven demand and elevated absolute interest rate differentials, continue to provide the U.S. dollar with phased support above the 99 level.
  • EUR/USD (EURUSD): Quoted at 1.16209, down 0.04% intraday. Weak economic growth momentum within the eurozone continued limiting the euro’s rebound potential, while the currency pair maintained a narrow low-level consolidation range near 1.16 as the U.S. dollar remained stable.
  • USD/JPY (USDJPY): Reported at 159.582, up 0.04% intraday. Depreciation pressure on the Japanese yen has yet to fundamentally ease, with the pair steadily approaching the critical 160 psychological threshold. The significant structural interest rate differential between the United States and Japan remains the core driver of active carry trade positioning, while the marginal effectiveness of verbal intervention continues to diminish.

3. Métaux précieux et matières premières

Métaux précieux

  • Or au comptant (XAUUSD): Quoted at USD 4,454.80 per ounce, down USD 1.63 intraday, or 0.04%. Gold prices continued consolidating at historically elevated levels. Although slightly pressured by the modest rise in the U.S. Dollar Index during the session, downside risks remain deeply constrained by long-term inflation expectations and systematic geopolitical premium support.
  • Argent au comptant (XAGUSD): Quoted at USD 74.7775 per ounce, rising USD 0.13400 intraday, or 0.18%. Silver continued outperforming gold, as the resonance between industrial demand expectations and speculative bullish sentiment allowed it to display higher beta characteristics within the current pricing structure.

matières premières

  • Pétrole brut WTI (XTIUSD): Quoted at USD 93.08 per barrel, surging USD 1.05 intraday, or 1.14%. Supported by potential supply-side disruption risks and ongoing pricing of Middle East geopolitical tensions, bullish sentiment in crude oil strengthened significantly. Oil prices successfully stabilized above USD 90, as markets continued repricing the structural premium embedded within global commodity supply chains.

4. Actifs crypto et évolutions macroéconomiques

  • Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Latest price at USD 74,408, up 0.10% intraday. Following previous periods of intense volatility, BTC has entered a temporary liquidity consolidation phase above the USD 74,000 level, with both bulls and bears remaining relatively cautious amid uncertainty surrounding the macro interest rate trajectory.
  • Ethereum (ETHUSD): Quoted at USD 2,024.21, rising USD 2.57 intraday, or 0.13%. ETH demonstrated certain resilience around the key USD 2,000 pivot level, although the absence of a trend-level breakout in on-chain beta activity has caused its relative elasticity within digital assets to continue underperforming both beta chains and traditional hard-asset gold.

5. Événements clés à suivre aujourd'hui

  • New Zealand Annual Budget Report
  • Discours du président de la Banque nationale suisse, Schlegel
  • U.S. Core PCE Price Index MoM
  • U.S. Preliminary Quarterly GDP Growth Rate
  • U.S. Preliminary GDP Price Index QoQ
  • Demandes initiales d'allocations chômage aux États-Unis
  • U.S. New Home Sales Annualized
  • Bank of Canada Press Conference