Amillex Daily Market Commentary | U.S. Jobs Data Reshapes the Narrative, Gold Faces Resistance at 5,100

12 February 2026 — After the sharp volatility seen earlier this year, global precious metals markets have entered a phase of intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. During Thursday’s Asian session, spot gold hovered around the USD 5,060 level, while silver traded in a narrow range above USD 85.

U.S. January nonfarm payroll data released earlier today came in significantly stronger than expected, with job gains of 130,000 versus market forecasts of 70,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.3%, beating expectations. This unexpectedly resilient labor market has quickly altered rate-cut expectations, with traders pushing the anticipated timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut from June to July. As a result, both the U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields rebounded, placing pressure on gold prices after they briefly touched an intraday high of USD 5,120 before pulling back.

From a macro perspective, while strong employment data provides short-term support for the Fed’s relatively hawkish stance, structural tailwinds for gold remain intact. These include sustained central bank gold purchases—particularly from the People’s Bank of China, which has been buying gold for 15 consecutive months—as well as the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Overview

1. U.S. Equity Markets

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 50,121.40, down 0.13% on the day. The index continues to hold firmly above the psychological 50,000 level.
S&P 500 (SP500): 6,941.67, down 0.07%. The index is showing caution near the key 7,000 resistance zone.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): 25,228.75, down 0.24%. Growth and technology stocks saw selective profit-taking amid recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields.

Stock in Focus

Tesla (TSLA): USD 428.27, up 0.72%. As a heavyweight constituent, Tesla showed notable resilience despite broader market weakness.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 96.907, up 0.02%. The dollar remains range-bound below the 97 level as markets reprice stronger-than-expected labor data and recent hawkish remarks from Fed officials.
EUR/USD: 1.1876, up 0.05%. The euro edged higher on technical recovery in Eurozone fundamentals, seeking near-term support around the 1.19 level.
USD/JPY: 153.19, down 0.02%. The yen remains relatively stable, as expectations around the U.S.–Japan yield spread appear to have reached short-term equilibrium, keeping the pair in consolidation.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Metales preciosos

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): USD 5,061.84/oz, down approximately 0.44%. After its sharp rally and successful hold above USD 5,000, gold is facing pressure as safe-haven demand eases and rate-cut expectations are pushed back.
Spot Silver (XAG/USD): USD 82.31/oz, down 2.37%. Silver’s industrial exposure has come under pressure amid concerns over slowing global growth, triggering profit-taking in long positions.

Commodities

Crude Oil (WTI): USD 65.01/barrel, up 0.12%.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): USD 67,408, up 0.53%. After a sharp correction earlier, Bitcoin is finding buying interest near the USD 67,000 level, suggesting risk assets remain attractive amid still-accommodative liquidity conditions.
Ethereum (ETH/USD): USD 1,952.7, up 0.62%. ETH rebounded alongside the broader market, with signs of fading bearish momentum near the key pivot below USD 2,000.

5. Today’s Focus