Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Double Pressure from High Dollar Index and Hawkish Signals; Gold Hits Periodic Lows while Oil Plummets Below the 70 Mark

On June 25, 2026, global financial markets experienced severe turbulence during Wednesday’s US trading session. As the US dollar index surged to a 13-month high and Federal Reserve officials continued to release hawkish signals, the momentum of gold bulls faced a severe test. In Thursday’s early Asian session, spot gold maintained low-level trading around $3,997/oz, having previously plummeted to a near seven-month low of $3,959.04/oz during the session. Market bets on Fed rate hikes this year intensified again, which, combined with a structural pullback in inflation expectations, collectively weakened the anti-inflation and safe-haven appeal of precious metals, putting significant short-term pressure on gold prices.

Concurrently with the decline in precious metals, the commodities market also underwent structural adjustments, with the crude oil market experiencing a massive sell-off. WTI crude oil tumbled over 4% on Wednesday, breaking below the $70 mark for the first time since early March this year, hitting a low of $69.89/barrel. Although earlier supply chain uncertainties had triggered market worries about rising inflation, the panic over supply disruptions was substantially alleviated as logistics bottlenecks in core maritime shipping lanes gradually improved. Profit-taking by macro funds resonated with short-term improvements on the supply side, driving the price center of crude oil downward rapidly. Moving forward, the market will continue to focus on core inflation data from major economies and further verification of the Federal Reserve’s tightening policy path.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. US Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 51,854.17 points, up 182.00 points or 0.35% intraday. Amidst the divergence of macro capital, traditional value stocks and large-cap blue chips demonstrated strong defensive resilience. The index firmly held the 51,000-point mark, with market funds settling structurally within cyclical sectors.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Closed at 7,370 points (displayed as 7.37K), significantly down 107.33 points or 1.44% intraday. Dragged down by deep pullbacks in some high-valuation heavyweight stocks and specific growth sectors, the S&P 500 exhibited a high-volume decline. This indicates apparent profit-taking selling pressure above the 7,400 level, accompanied by intense sector rotation of funds.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Closed at 30,078.00 points, bucking the trend with a massive surge of 563.75 points or 1.91% intraday. Core tech assets and the semiconductor/AI infrastructure mainlines exploded with powerful Alpha ($\alpha$) effects once again. The structural divergence in earnings expectations among tech giants prompted the Nasdaq 100 to become the primary liquidity sink for the entire market, driving the index to break through the historic 30,000-point milestone.

Stock Highlights

Apple (AAPL): Closed at $293.08, down slightly by 0.41%. Amidst severe volatility in global tech stocks, Apple demonstrated strong institutional core-holding resilience. The stock price maintained a high-level, low-volume consolidation above $290, awaiting new fundamental catalysts.
Tesla (TSLA): Closed at $375.53, down 1.59% intraday. Affected by internal capital diversion within growth stocks and the rising premium of global supply chain policy uncertainties, the stock price has recently retraced from high levels and is testing key technical support below.
Intel (INTC): Closed at $131.65, down 0.48%. It showed relative stagnation despite the overall strength in the semiconductor sector, reflecting market capital’s cautious wait-and-see attitude toward its painful transition phase and the slope of long-term fundamental recovery.
Amazon (AMZN): Closed at $234.27, up slightly by 0.07%. With solid expectations for its cloud business and consumer fundamentals, the stock price fluctuated narrowly above $230, performing basically in line with the broader market.
Google (GOOGL): Closed at $345.29, down slightly by 0.24%. During the intermission of the AI mainline revaluation, the stock price underwent normalized technical digestion within its historic high range.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

US Dollar Index (DXY): Currently at 101.632, up slightly by 0.046 points or 0.05% intraday. Intertwined with confusion over the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path and the stickiness of inflation expectations, the US dollar index exhibited narrow, sawtooth-like fluctuations around 101.50. Current macro pricing primarily revolves around global policy uncertainty premiums, and the defensive value of the US dollar as a liquidity axis remains solid.
USD/JPY (USDJPY): Positioned at 161.746, down slightly by 0.064 points or 0.04% intraday. The Yen remained under persistent pressure above the 161 mark. Despite marginal containment from potential verbal interventions by the Bank of Japan, the underlying logic of carry trades remained unshaken against the backdrop of substantially high US-Japan interest rate differentials, meaning the continuous capital outflow trend still acted as a strong speed bump for the exchange rate.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): Positioned at 1.13500, down slightly by 0.07% intraday. The overall macroeconomic sentiment in the Eurozone is in a low-level pullback phase, limiting the Euro’s upward breakthrough momentum during the US dollar’s sideways consolidation. The exchange rate continues to search for a medium-term technical equilibrium point below 1.1400.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Positioned at $3,997.64/oz, down slightly by $1.66 or 0.04% intraday. Gold entered a “large convergence” pattern of ultra-high-level sideways trading below the $4,000 threshold. Safe-haven sentiments driven by geopolitical uncertainties formed a strong bull-bear balance against the suppression of non-yielding assets by the Fed’s “higher for longer” interest rate logic.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Positioned at $57.455/oz, up slightly by $0.014 or 0.02% intraday. Silver demonstrated excellent resilience to volatility above $57. The resonance between speculative long positions and industrial demand expectations allowed it to display stronger downward elasticity than gold at historic highs.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Positioned at $70.66/barrel, up $0.21 or 0.30% intraday. Driven by a rebound in the supply-side geopolitical premium in the Middle East and better-than-expected inventory drawdowns, crude oil gradually stabilized above the $70 psychological resistance level. In the short term, the commodity market’s repricing of the geopolitical premium provided a safety cushion for oil prices at the bottom.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Last traded at $60,847, down $140 or 0.23% intraday. Following a deep technical correction in the previous period, BTC engaged in a fierce long-short battle around the key psychological pivot of $60,000. The dual squeeze of a phase-specific tightening in macro liquidity and the outflow of risk-averse capital toward traditional hard assets (such as gold and the US dollar) suppressed short-term risk appetite.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Positioned at $1,618.66, down $1.06 or 0.07% intraday. The Beta attribute of ETH continued to weaken under the current macro environment where risk aversion dominates. Its exchange rate pair against BTC remained under pressure. The market capital’s reassessment of the Web3 ecosystem and on-chain activity premiums caused it to extend its bottom-grinding trend following a high-level pullback.

5. Today’s Focus