Global financial markets entered a period of heightened volatility as competing bullish and bearish macroeconomic forces continued to shape investor sentiment. During Thursday’s Asian session, spot gold consolidated around USD 4,448 per ounce. Although bulls launched a strong rally yesterday and briefly pushed prices close to the historic USD 4,500 psychological milestone, concerns over inflationary pressures stemming from external developments ultimately halted the advance. 

Persistent supply chain disruptions and inflation risks have prompted markets to reassess the future path of monetary policy. Expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for a longer period have resurfaced, placing significant pressure on gold’s premium valuation. As a result, gold may enter a short term consolidation phase before establishing its next directional move. 

Meanwhile, the tug of war in the energy market has also intensified, with crude oil trading near USD 95.44 per barrel. While firm rhetoric surrounding trade restrictions and potential blockades helped oil prices advance for three consecutive sessions, reports of localized ceasefires and the establishment of pilot zones have eased concerns over escalating risks, limiting further upside momentum. As institutional investors continue to rebalance portfolios cautiously, commodity markets appear to be moving away from pure safe haven driven enthusiasm. The direction of risk assets will likely depend on tangible developments in supply chains and shifts in inflation data. 

자산 성과 및 기본적 분석 

1. 미국 주식 시장 

지수 성과 

다우존스 산업평균지수(DJI): Closed at 50,692.07, falling 621.07 points or 1.21% on the day. The resurgence of the “higher for longer” interest rate narrative triggered outflows from value stocks and traditional heavyweight sectors, leaving the index under noticeable pressure below the 51,000 level. 

S&P 500(SP500): Ended at 7,541.39, down 4.57 points or 0.06%. Sector rotation within technology stocks and increased demand for defensive assets kept the index trading in a narrow range near record highs, demonstrating continued structural resilience. 

나스닥 100 (NQ1!): Finished at 30,435.25, declining 198.00 points or 0.65%. Uncertainty surrounding the future interest rate path continued to weigh on high valuation growth stocks, leading to another round of profit taking. 

주요 주식 종목 

애플(AAPL): Closed at USD 310.26, down 1.57%. The stock retreated modestly alongside broader weakness in major technology names but maintained key support above the USD 300 psychological level. 

Amazon (AMZN): Ended at USD 250.02, falling 2.53%. Growth oriented technology stocks faced pressure as investors rotated toward more defensive assets amid expectations of tighter financial conditions. 

인텔(INTC): Outperformed the market, surging 4.43% to close at USD 112.71. Improving semiconductor fundamentals and industry specific tailwinds made Intel one of the strongest performers within the technology sector. 

2. 외환 시장 

미국 달러 지수(DXY): Currently trading at 99.425, down 0.13% on the day. While inflation concerns continue to limit the Federal Reserve’s room for rate cuts, growing demand for non U.S. assets and hard currency alternatives has created technical resistance ahead of the key 100 level. 

유로/달러: Trading at 1.16113, up 0.11%. The euro benefited from modest dollar weakness and continued to fluctuate around the 1.16 level. However, relatively soft economic fundamentals in Europe limited further upside potential. 

USD/JPY: Trading at 159.921, down 0.11%. The pair remains close to the sensitive 160 threshold. Although markets remain highly attentive to the Bank of Japan’s policy direction, the substantial interest rate differential between the United States and Japan continues to support carry trade activity. 

3. 귀금속 및 원자재 

귀금속 

금 현물(XAUUSD): Trading at approximately USD 4,445.84 per ounce, up USD 21.125 or 0.48% on the day. The combination of inflation concerns and safe haven demand supported a strong advance above the USD 4,400 level, bringing prices once again within reach of the historic USD 4,500 milestone. 

은 현물(XAGUSD): Trading near USD 73.25 per ounce, up 0.71%. Silver continued to follow gold higher and successfully moved above the USD 73 level, reflecting sustained investor demand for hard assets. 

상품 

WTI 원유(XTIUSD): Trading at approximately USD 97.07 per barrel, down 0.83% on the day. While trade restrictions and blockade concerns continue to provide medium term support, progress in localized ceasefire efforts has reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium, leaving oil prices trapped in a battle between bulls and bears near the USD 97 level. 

4. Cryptocurrency Market and Macro Developments 

비트코인(BTCUSD): Currently trading at USD 64,210, up 0.26% on the day. Following a period of significant volatility, Bitcoin is attempting to establish a base around the USD 64,000 area. However, shifting expectations regarding interest rates continue to limit broader momentum across digital assets. 

이더리움(ETHUSD): Trading at approximately USD 1,813.93, up 0.18%. Performance remained largely in line with the broader cryptocurrency market. In the current environment dominated by inflation and safe haven themes, traditional hard assets and gold continue to attract stronger institutional inflows. 

5. 오늘 주목해야 할 주요 사건들 

• Speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock 

• Switzerland CPI Monthly Rate 

• Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde 

• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims 

• Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey