現在ご覧いただいているのは Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Framework for Extended US-Iran Ceasefire Agreement Begins to Take Shape, Gold Rebounds in V-Shape While Oil Prices Remain Under Pressure

アミレックス・デイリー・マーケット・コメンタリー｜米イラン停戦延長合意の枠組みが具体化し始め、金価格はV字回復、一方原油価格は依然として圧力にさらされる

On May 29, 2026, the global commodities market was reshuffled once again amid sharp volatility in the Middle East situation. During Thursday’s U.S. trading session, spot gold experienced a steep plunge and once touched a two-month low of USD 4,366.52 per ounce. However, following the major news that the United States and Iran had reached a framework agreement to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, market risk-off sentiment shifted dramatically amid intense volatility. As the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from elevated levels, bullish capital flowed back into the market, triggering a dramatic V-shaped rebound in gold prices. During Friday’s Asian session, spot gold stabilized around USD 4,492 per ounce, once again testing the psychological USD 4,500 per ounce level. This round of intense volatility highlighted gold’s extremely high elasticity and market depth as a core defensive asset favored by institutional bulls under the current complex geopolitical landscape. 

In contrast, the energy market displayed a completely different trajectory. The memorandum of understanding on the ceasefire extension directly eased market concerns over disruptions to crude oil supply chains. U.S. crude oil (WTI) came under pressure and moved lower during Thursday’s session, falling below the key psychological level of USD 90 per barrel, and is currently maintaining weak consolidation around USD 88.44 per barrel. Looking ahead, although the U.S.-Iran agreement still awaits final approval from U.S. President Trump and localized frictions remain, the risk premium in the commodities market has already entered a phase of repricing. In the short term, crude oil prices may continue testing the USD 85 per barrel support level, while the gold market, after digesting the geopolitical easing, will gradually shift its focus back toward Federal Reserve policy logic and core inflation data guidance. 

資産市場のパフォーマンスとファンダメンタル分析 

1. 米国株式市場 

インデックスパフォーマンス 

  • ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均（DJI）: Reported at 50,674.06 points. The index posted a slight daily gain of 24.98 points, up 0.05%. After successfully holding above the historic 50,000-point milestone, the index entered a phase of high-level narrow-range consolidation. Traditional value and industrial heavyweight stocks remained stable, lacking additional macro catalysts for further upside, as the market awaits directional guidance from a new round of core economic data. 
  • S&P500指数（SP500）: Reported at 7,520 points. The index gained 1.24 points during the day, up 0.02%. The S&P 500 currently remains within historical high territory, with strong sector rotation characteristics visible across the market. Against the backdrop of abundant overall liquidity but cautious marginal capital inflows, funds partially rotated out of cyclical traditional sectors and concentrated into mega-cap technology stocks with stronger defensive qualities and more abundant cash flows. 
  • ナスダック100指数（NQ1！）: Reported at 30,287.25 points. The index fell 19.75 points during the day, down 0.07%. Despite the mild pullback, the Nasdaq’s technical structure remains intact after breaking above the 30,000-point psychological threshold. The strong moat of core technology assets and continued monetization expectations for AI infrastructure remain the core foundation supporting the index’s high-level consolidation. 

主要銘柄 

  • アップル（AAPL）: Reported at USD 312.51, rising USD 1.66 during the day, up 0.53%. Driven by broad gains in large-cap technology stocks and defensive fund concentration, Apple demonstrated strong resilience and leadership, with its share price steadily climbing above the USD 310 level, highlighting the company’s moat effect. 
  • アマゾン（AMZN）: Reported at USD 274.00, rising USD 2.15 during the day, up 0.79%. Growth potential in cloud services and improving retail margins made Amazon one of the stronger performers among technology heavyweight stocks during the session. 
  • グーグル（GOOG）: Reported at USD 390.13, rising USD 1.30 during the day, up 0.33%. The stock price is approaching the USD 400 milestone, as the market continues pricing in AI advertising system upgrades and optimized computing cost structures. 
  • テスラ（TSLA）: Reported at USD 442.10, rising USD 1.74 during the day, up 0.40%. Tesla continued high-level consolidation above USD 440 while awaiting further catalysts for its long-term growth narrative. 
  • インテル（INTC）: Reported at USD 120.89, falling USD 0.88 during the day, down 0.72%. Pressured by its manufacturing process transition period and intensifying competition in foundry services, Intel significantly underperformed the broader semiconductor sector. 

2. 外国為替市場 

  • 米ドル指数（DXY）: Currently reported at 98.970. The index edged down 0.022 during the day, down 0.02%. The dollar continued consolidating below the 99 level. Although resilient labor market conditions make it difficult for Federal Reserve rate path expectations to be revised sharply downward, the moderate recovery in non-U.S. major economies and the advancement of diversified asset allocation by global central banks have significantly limited the dollar’s upside potential. 
  • 米ドル／円（USDJPY）: Currently reported at 159.250. The pair edged up 0.004 during the day, with a gain of 0.00%. Depreciation pressure on the Japanese yen remains elevated, with the exchange rate approaching the key psychological red line of 160. Although Bank of Japan officials continue verbal intervention, carry trades remain active under the macro backdrop of historically wide U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials, making it difficult for capital outflow pressure to fundamentally reverse in the short term. 
  • ユーロ／米ドル（EURUSD）: Currently reported at 1.16554. The pair edged up 0.00062 during the day, up 0.05%. The euro remains in a basing phase around the 1.16 level. The mismatch between the pace of local European inflation slowdown and central bank rate cut expectations has left the euro lacking strong breakout momentum even as the dollar weakens, resulting in relatively tangled price action. 

3. 貴金属および商品 

貴金属 

  • スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）: Reported at approximately USD 4,499.71 per ounce. Gold rose USD 4.13 during the day, up 0.09%. Gold prices continued to display strong high-level consolidation characteristics near the key psychological level of USD 4,500. From a macro perspective, current gold pricing logic has partially diverged from the traditional framework centered on U.S. Treasury real yields. Its pricing system increasingly incorporates sovereign credit hedging demand amid the global multipolarization process, as well as deeper pricing for the long-term upward shift in the inflation center of fiat currency systems. 
  • スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）: Reported at approximately USD 76.0175 per ounce. Silver rose 0.36400 during the day, up 0.48%. Silver demonstrated stronger active buying momentum than gold. In addition to following gold’s monetary attribute for catch-up gains, rigid industrial demand from advanced manufacturing and the green energy transition (such as photovoltaics and semiconductors) jointly pushed up silver’s volatility and valuation elasticity within the current commodity spectrum. 

商品 

  • WTI原油（XTIUSD）: Currently reported at USD 90.58 per barrel. Oil prices fell USD 0.59 during the day, down 0.65%. Oil prices faced certain profit-taking pressure after stabilizing above the USD 90 level. Although supply-side support from OPEC+ production cuts and potential geopolitical risks continues to provide a floor for prices, concerns over slowing marginal growth in medium- to long-term global macroeconomic demand have caused bullish sentiment to moderate around the USD 91 level. 

4. 暗号資産とマクロ経済動向 

  • ビットコイン（BTCUSD）: Latest reported price at USD 73,709. Bitcoin rose USD 190 during the day, up 0.26%. After a previous technical correction, Bitcoin is currently consolidating within the USD 73,000 to USD 74,000 range. As a high-beta digital risk asset, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to inflection points in global marginal liquidity. With macro liquidity conditions yet to see another explosive expansion, capital is searching for new consensus foundations. 
  • イーサリアム（ETHUSD）: Latest reported price at USD 2,012.22. Ethereum rose USD 5.61 during the day, up 0.28%. Ethereum is barely stabilizing above the key pivot level of USD 2,000. The marginal slowdown in on-chain ecosystem activity has caused Ethereum to underperform relative to Bitcoin and traditional hard assets like gold, reflecting capital concentration toward assets with higher certainty when market risk aversion and defensive sentiment dominate. 

5. Today’s Key Focus 

  • Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Japan) 
  • Preliminary Germany CPI MoM 
  • イングランド銀行総裁ベイリー氏の演説 
  • Canada GDP MoM