Vous consultez actuellement Amillex Daily Commentary Review | Weak NFP Dampens Rate Hike Expectations, Geopolitical Tensions Boost Oil Risk Premium

Analyse quotidienne d'Amillex | Faibles chiffres de l'emploi non agricole : les anticipations de hausse des taux sont revues à la baisse, les tensions géopolitiques accentuent la prime de risque pétrolière

On Monday, August 10, 2026, during the early Asian session, the global commodities market exhibited a mild upward trend, driven by macro policies and geopolitical developments. Spot gold traded around $4,346/oz, primarily influenced by the surprisingly weak US July non-farm payrolls (NFP) report. The softer-than-expected labor market data effectively suppressed market expectations for Fed rate hikes, pressuring the US dollar index lower and providing solid downside support for gold. Although profit-taking near record highs led to minor consolidations, the bullish structure for gold remains robust, bolstered by expectations of a pivot in monetary policy and safe-haven flows.

Concurrently, the risk premium in the crude oil market spiked again, with WTI crude edging higher to trade near $78.73/barrel. On the news front, the deadlock in the Middle East situation and stalled diplomatic negotiations—coupled with specific preconditions required to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—have directly heightened supply-side concerns. Looking ahead, if diplomatic efforts in the Middle East remain fruitless, supply risks will continue to support range-bound strength in oil prices. Meanwhile, the gold market will closely monitor upcoming US inflation data to validate further evolution of policy pivot expectations.

Analyse fondamentale et de la performance des classes d'actifs

1. Marché des actions américaines

  • Performance de l'indice
    • Indice industriel Dow Jones (DJI) : At 54,042.39, up 152.00 points (+0.28%). Supported by cyclical sectors and blue-chip heavyweights, the Dow maintained a steady upward trend with strong buying interest near the 54,000 mark.
    • Indice S&P 500 (SP500) : At 7,757.27, down 3.06 points (-0.04%). The index traded in a narrow range near historical highs around 7,750 amid light volume, as market participants await key US inflation data later this week.
    • Nasdaq 100 Futures (NQ1!): At 29,881.00, up 46.25 points (+0.16%). Tech stocks diverged, with the index building momentum to establish support ahead of the 30,000 psychological barrier.
  • Points saillants des actions individuelles
    • Tesla (TSLA) : At $328.58, jumping 2.83%. As a market leader, it saw significant capital inflows, forming a technical breakout at high levels.
    • Intel (INTC) : At $101.65, rising 1.84%. Value recovery in the semiconductor sector continued, with the stock steadily holding above the $100 psychological resistance level.
    • Alphabet / Google (GOOG): At $354.30, falling 0.96%. Constrained by short-term profit-taking, the stock underwent a minor technical pullback from recent highs.
    • Apple (AAPL) & Amazon (AMZN): At $313.33 (+0.29%) and $274.48 (+0.82%), respectively. Both traded steadily, providing liquidity support to the broad market during sideways consolidation.

2. Marché des changes

  • Indice du dollar américain (DXY) : At 99.643, up 0.04%. The dollar index fluctuated tightly between 99.50 and 100.00. Uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s interest rate trajectory kept market activity cautious, compressing overall volatility.
  • EUR/USD : At 1.15555, down 0.03%. The euro hovered near 1.1550 as ECB policy wait-and-see stance combined with weak regional fundamentals, limiting upward momentum.
  • USD/JPY : At 157.916, up 0.07%. Yield differential expectations between the US and Japan dominated, pushing the pair toward 158.00. Carry trade demand and a temporary fading of the yen’s safe-haven appeal kept the yen under pressure.

3. Métaux précieux et matières premières

  • Métaux précieux
    • Or au comptant (XAUUSD) : At $4,338.97/oz, down 0.07%. Gold consolidated stably within a high channel above $4,300. Despite holding costs in a high interest rate environment, long-term allocation and safe-haven demand provided firm support on dips.
    • Argent au comptant (XAGUSD) : At $63.74/oz, up 0.28%. Silver slightly outperformed gold, supported by industrial demand expectations and gold-to-silver ratio rebalancing, oscillating at elevated levels between $63 and $64.
  • matières premières
    • Pétrole brut WTI (XTIUSD) : At $79.00/barrel, rebounding strongly by 2.23%. Heightened geopolitical risks and supply uncertainty were priced in again, driving crude oil near the $80 psychological resistance level with expanded risk premiums.

4. Actifs crypto et dynamique macroéconomique

  • Bitcoin (BTCUSD) : At $64,980, up 0.19%. Bitcoin formed a narrow base around $65,000. As global macro liquidity undergoes repricing, risk appetite remains cautious, resulting in low-volatility sideways movement.
  • Ethereum (ETHUSD) : At $1,913.65, up 0.24%. Ethereum rebounded slightly in tandem with the broader market, establishing a consolidation base below $1,900. Correlation between crypto assets and traditional high-risk equities remains high.

5. Événements à suivre aujourd'hui

  • Aucun