Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Gold Narrowly Fluctuates as Rate Cut Expectations Adjust, Inventory and Demand Resonance Supports Elevated Oil Prices

On May 14, 2026, the global asset pricing logic continued to adjust amid ongoing data-driven market dynamics. Influenced by the potential impact of inflation trends on the monetary policy path, spot gold recorded its second consecutive trading day of decline on Wednesday, while maintaining narrow fluctuations around USD 4,700/oz during Thursday’s Asian session. As recent key data demonstrated strong resilience, market expectations for a policy pivot have moderated, and stable real interest rates have created short-term valuation pressure on precious metals, pushing gold into a consolidation phase driven by position adjustments. Investors are currently closely monitoring labor market conditions and upcoming economic indicators to assess the balance between long-term growth momentum and cost pressures. In the absence of clear incremental information, the gold market overall remains in a high-level wait-and-see mode.

In the energy market, international crude oil prices remained above the USD 100 threshold, supported by tight supply and resilient demand. WTI crude oil traded around USD 101/barrel today. Although prices posted a slight decline on Wednesday due to macroeconomic volatility, intraday prices once touched USD 102.72/barrel. The underlying support for oil prices mainly comes from continued fundamental improvement: the latest statistics showed a larger-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories, reflecting a rebound in seasonal demand. Meanwhile, the structural tight balance on the global supply side has yet to ease, and the market is closely watching key trade developments for potential guidance on the global supply chain. Overall, under the combined effects of inventory drawdowns and fundamental premiums, the energy market’s price center remains firm, and high-level fluctuations are expected to continue in the short term.

عملکرد بازار دارایی و تحلیل بنیادی

1. U.S. Stock Market

عملکرد شاخص

شاخص نزدک ۱۰۰ (NQ1!): Reported at 29,628.75. Up 149.50 points intraday, with a gain of 0.51%. Against the backdrop of fluctuating inflation expectations, growth technology stocks continue to serve as a safe haven for capital. The index remains in an upward channel above the 29,600 level, reflecting the market’s continued pricing of AI infrastructure investment.
شاخص S&P 500 (SP500): Reported at 7.4K (approximately 7,400 points). Down 11.88 points intraday, with a decline of 0.16%. The index saw a narrow pullback near historical highs, mainly dragged down by non-technology heavyweight sectors.
میانگین صنعتی داو جونز (DJI): Reported at 49,697.96. Down 68.01 points intraday, with a decline of 0.14%. Traditional blue-chip stocks remained weak, and the market showed clear profit-taking tendencies ahead of the psychological 50,000-point level.

نکات برجسته سهام

گوگل (GOOG): Reported at 402.62, surging 3.94%. As a core heavyweight leader, it reflects the market’s high confidence in the profitability of major technology companies.
تسلا (TSLA): Reported at 445.27, up 2.73%. In the broader volatile U.S. equity market, high-beta growth assets remained active.
اپل (AAPL): Reported at 298.87, up 1.38%. The stock price rebounded steadily, moving toward the USD 300 milestone.

۲. بازار ارز خارجی

شاخص دلار آمریکا (DXY): Reported at 98.466. Slightly up 0.01%. Although the Federal Reserve’s policy stance remained neutral, weakening growth expectations in other major economies kept the U.S. dollar fluctuating at elevated levels around 98.5, with safe-haven attributes dominating.
یورو/دلار آمریکا (EUR/USD): Reported at 1.1716. Slightly up 0.02%. The contradiction between Eurozone inflation data and slowing economic growth limited the euro’s rebound, with the exchange rate remaining in weak consolidation near the 1.17 level.
دلار آمریکا/ین ژاپن (USDJPY): Reported at 157.85. Slightly down 0.02%. Although a technical narrow correction appeared, the dominance of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential remains intact, leaving the yen under pressure near the 158 level.

۳. فلزات گرانبها و کالاها

فلزات گرانبها

طلای اسپات (XAUUSD): Reported at approximately USD 4,695.20/oz. Slightly up 0.13% intraday. Gold prices continue to show strong stagnation at high levels. Although safe-haven sentiment remains, resistance near the USD 4,700 level is evident.
نقره اسپات (XAGUSD): Reported at USD 84.240/oz. Down 1.50%. Silver prices have experienced increased volatility recently, with significant profit-taking emerging intraday as the market corrects previously overextended long positions.

کالاها

نفت خام (XTIUSD): Reported at USD 101.11/barrel. Up 0.06%. Oil prices returned above the USD 100 level as the market priced in potential risk premiums from Middle East tensions and supply-side risks among major oil-producing countries. The short-term bullish structure remains intact.

۴. دارایی‌های رمزنگاری‌شده

بیت کوین (BTCUSD): Reported at USD 79,446. Up 0.20%. BTC continued to consolidate below the USD 80,000 threshold. As safe-haven sentiment in traditional financial markets fluctuates, inflows into crypto assets as high-risk assets have slowed.
اتریوم (ETHUSD): Reported at USD 2,264.00. Up 0.27%. ETH remained relatively weak, reflecting that market capital is favoring macro assets and Bitcoin with stronger certainty.

5. Today’s Key Focus