On July 2, 2026, the gold market performed steadily under the dual support of economic data and macro policies. In Thursday’s early Asian session, spot gold stabilized around $4,038/oz. The previously released US ADP private employment data was weaker than expected, which not only reflected a marginal slowdown in labor market momentum but also directly pushed Treasury yields to fluctuate downward. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh’s statements on inflation expectations and risk mitigation further guided market expectations toward looser policy liquidity, directly benefiting non-yielding gold assets. Current market sentiment is dominated by bulls, and demand for safe-haven and asset allocation remains strong, driving gold prices to maintain a strong volatile tone within key ranges.
In contrast, crude oil, another pillar of the commodities market, faced macroeconomic pressure. US crude oil is currently trading around $68/bbl, primarily impacted by positive progress in external related talks. This news effectively eased market concerns about supply disruptions in major energy regions, triggering a rapid unwinding of risk premiums and profit-taking by bullish capital. The focus of the subsequent bull-bear tug-of-war will completely shift to the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report to be released tonight. As a key guide for the next policy path, its ultimate performance will directly determine whether gold can launch a new round of offensive and whether oil prices can stabilize at key support levels.
Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis
- US Stock Market
Index Performance
• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 52,310.22 points. Down slightly by 14.00 points, or 0.03% intraday. The index showed clear signs of horizontal consolidation at high levels. Capital activity for heavy-weighted value stocks declined under the current environment of policy uncertainty, with bulls and bears reaching a short-term equilibrium around the 52,300 level.
• S&P 500 Index (SP500): Closed at approximately 7,500 points (screenshot shows 7.5K). Up by 58.93 points, or 0.79% intraday. Despite divergent trends among technology growth stocks, the S&P 500 performed relatively strongly under the weight support of defensive and certain core assets, continuing to fluctuate within its historical high range.
• Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Closed at 29,960.75 points. Down by 133.50 points, or 0.44% intraday. The index encountered technical selling pressure ahead of the major 30,000-point threshold. Severe divergence in the performance of tech giants exacerbated short-term profit-taking pressure in the tech growth sector.
Stock Highlights
• Intel (INTC): Closed at $127.02, plummeting by 9.03% intraday. Affected by specific negative fundamental catalysts or industry outlook adjustments, the stock suffered concentrated institutional selling, becoming the primary drag on the Nasdaq’s performance.
• Apple (AAPL) & Amazon (AMZN) & Google (GOOGL): Mega-cap tech core assets demonstrated a strong moat effect. Among them, Apple surged 1.73% to $294.38, Amazon rose 1.41% to $241.70, and Google advanced 1.07% to $361.21. Core AI liquidity targets remain safe havens to avoid systemic risks.
• Tesla (TSLA): Closed at $425.30, up 1.12% intraday. The stock extended its recent rebound trend, finding solid support above $420. - Foreign Exchange Market
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Currently at 101.399. Down slightly by 0.013 points, or 0.01% intraday. The DXY moved in a narrow horizontal range around 101.40 overall. The market is digesting the latest inflation expectations and interest rate path shifting games, with multinational long-short capital generally adopting a wait-and-see attitude ahead of the crucial macro data window.
• USD/JPY (USDJPY): Currently at 162.532. Down slightly by 0.04% intraday. The Yen fluctuated around 162.50. Although active carry trades kept the Yen at historical lows, market vigilance over potential verbal or actual intervention by the Bank of Japan limited further upside for the pair.
• EUR/USD (EURUSD): Currently at 1.13793. Up slightly by 0.02% intraday. The Euro fluctuated narrowly below the 1.14 threshold. Relatively weak internal fundamental momentum in Europe limited its rebound space despite a softer US Dollar Index. - Precious Metals and Commodities
Precious Metals
• Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Currently at $4,043.30/oz. Up by $12.03, or 0.30% intraday. With rising global macro policy uncertainties and potential geopolitical hedging demands, gold prices maintained a highly robust upward channel above the $4,000 major threshold, with technical support levels moving steadily higher.
• Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Currently at $59.3615/oz. Up by 0.41% intraday. Silver’s performance continued to be periodically stronger than gold’s, as the resonance between safe-haven capital and the industrial commodity cycle provided a dual catalyst, keeping bullish sentiment running high.
Commodities
• WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Currently at $68.29/bbl. Down by $0.18, or 0.26% intraday. Influenced by both the weakening of global supply-side disruptions and neutral macro demand expectations, oil’s upward momentum slowed down, showing a technical retracement near medium-term moving averages in the short term. - Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics
• Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Last at $59,898. Down slightly by 0.11% intraday. In its process of challenging the $60,000 psychological barrier, BTC encountered significant technical resistance and profit-taking pressure, and is currently consolidating bottom liquidity around the $59,900 axis.
• Ethereum (ETHUSD): Currently at $1,604.96. Down by 0.17% intraday. ETH’s performance continued to be weaker than global risk assets and traditional hard currency (gold), reflecting that under the backdrop of marginally tightening macro liquidity mixed with safe-haven sentiments, existing funds within digital assets are concentrating toward high-certainty targets. - Today’s Focus
• Switzerland June CPI MoM
• US June Average Hourly Earnings MoM
• US June Non-Farm Payrolls Employment Change
• US June Unemployment Rate
• US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 27
