Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Weak NFP Fails to Stop Strong USD, Middle East Tensions Push Oil Above $100

March 9, 2026 — Global markets started the new week under a sharply divided macro backdrop. Following last Friday’s unexpectedly weak U.S. February Non-Farm Payrolls report, the U.S. recorded a loss of 92,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate surged to 4.4%, far worse than market expectations.

The weak labour data immediately boosted speculation that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting path. Spot gold briefly surged as traders priced in looser monetary policy.

Meanwhile, the energy market staged an “epic” gap-up on Monday. Escalating Middle East tensions have reportedly expanded into a broader regional conflict. Parts of the oil fields in Iraq and Kuwait have been forced to halt production, while the Strait of Hormuz faces potential blockade risks. WTI crude opened sharply higher today, surging more than 20% at one point and reaching $111.24 per barrel, the highest level since July 2022.

Market Performance & Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Index (DJI): 47,501.55. Down 0.95%. The index has pulled back toward the 47,500 support level, reflecting rising concerns over slowing growth.
S&P 500 (SP500): 6,627.05. Down 1.59%. Risk-off sentiment is pushing funds away from high-valuation sectors.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1): 24,142.75. Down 2.14% as markets reprice the long-term interest rate outlook.

Stock Focus

Tesla (TSLA): $396.73. Down 2.17%. As a high-beta stock, Tesla was among the first hit when risk appetite dropped, falling below the $400 psychological level.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

US Dollar Index (DXY): 99.505. Up 0.66%. Rising geopolitical tensions boosted demand for the dollar as a global safe-haven asset, pushing it closer to the 100 level.
EUR/USD: 1.15313. Down 0.73%. The stronger dollar and renewed European energy inflation concerns continue to weigh on the euro.
USD/JPY: 158.451. Up 0.44%. Driven by U.S. Treasury yield volatility and carry trade flows, the yen failed to show its traditional safe-haven strength.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): $5,059.98/oz. Down 2.16%. Despite rate-cut expectations, strong USD momentum and profit-taking triggered a pullback.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): $81.85/oz. Down 3.07%. Silver declined more sharply due to recession concerns affecting its industrial demand outlook.

Commodities

Crude Oil (XTIUSD): $108.88/barrel. Up 19.18%. Supply disruptions in Iraq and Kuwait pushed oil above $100, fueling renewed stagflation fears in global markets.

4. Crypto Market & Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): $66,733. Up 1.15%. BTC showed resilience while traditional safe-haven assets like gold pulled back.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): $1,965.8. Up 1.47%. ETH slightly outperformed but remains constrained by tighter global liquidity.

5. Today’s Focus