Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Gold Surges 2% as Safe-Haven Demand Clashes With Fed Uncertainty

February 19, 2026 — Global financial markets pushed higher amid intensifying geopolitical uncertainty. Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, combined with a stalemate in the Russia-Ukraine peace talks in Geneva, triggered a renewed rush into safe-haven assets. Spot gold surged more than 2% on Wednesday and continued to trade around the USD 4,970 level during the Asian session.

On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes exposed deep internal divisions among policymakers. With inflation remaining resilient, some officials even floated the possibility of renewed rate hikes, while others maintained a firm preference for rate cuts should incoming data soften. This policy uncertainty has left both bulls and bears highly conflicted near the psychologically important USD 5,000 level.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 49,662.66, up 0.26%
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,878.68, down 0.03% The index is consolidating near record highs as market pricing shifts from a “momentum-driven” narrative toward a more data-dependent framework. Investors remain cautious ahead of the 7,000 mark, awaiting further confirmation of inflation persistence.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): 24,940.25, down 0.06% The tech sector showed internal divergence. While memory-chip stocks advanced, mega-cap technology names faced valuation pressure amid two-way expectations on the future rate path.

Stock Highlight

Tesla (TSLA): USD 411.32, up 0.17%
Shares remained range-bound as rising risk-aversion kept price action subdued.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 97.719, up 0.03%
Supported by hawkish language in the Fed minutes referencing the possibility of renewed rate hikes, the dollar recouped some recent losses. Market-implied odds of a June rate cut have dropped sharply from 64% to below 50%.
EUR/USD: 1.17871, up 0.04%
Despite the dollar’s rebound, recent economic resilience in the eurozone and significant policy divergence within the Fed have limited downside pressure on the pair.
USD/JPY: 154.801, up 0.02%
Policy uncertainty following the inauguration of Japan’s new prime minister has kept yen carry trades balanced near the 155 level.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): USD 4,963.95/oz, down 0.27%
After testing the historic USD 5,000 level, gold faced technical profit-taking. The Fed minutes dampened near-term rate-cut enthusiasm, driving a short-term pullback. However, geopolitical risks continue to underpin medium-term buying interest.
Spot Silver (XAG/USD): USD 76.77/oz, down 0.53%
Elevated volatility at high levels reflects the sensitivity of speculative positioning to shifting inflation expectations.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD): USD 65.22/barrel, up 0.22%. Oil prices remain supported by geopolitical risk premiums tied to Middle East tensions and potential military intervention, firmly breaking above the USD 65 threshold.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): USD 66,383, down 0.06%. After a sharp correction in January, Bitcoin has entered a base-building phase. As the Fed reinforces a “higher for longer” stance, cryptocurrencies—still treated as risk assets—are undergoing a repricing of their liquidity premium.
Ethereum (ETH/USD): USD 1,954.20, down 0.08%. Continued underperformance relative to Bitcoin and commodities suggests that under the current risk-off environment, capital remains anchored to traditional hard assets.

5. Today’s focus