Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Easing Inflation Concerns from Crude Oil Volatility Drives Strong Gold Rebound Back Above the 4,200 Level

June 12, 2026 — Global financial markets witnessed a turning point amid a dramatic reversal in the macroeconomic landscape. During Thursday’s U.S. trading session, concerns that soaring crude oil prices would fuel inflation and force interest rates to remain elevated for an extended period suddenly eased. Spot gold, after approaching the key psychological level of USD 4,000 per ounce intraday, attracted strong buying momentum and surged more than 3% in a single session. In early Asian trading today, gold stabilized around USD 4,222 per ounce. The catalyst behind this bullish comeback was a sharp decline in key external friction risks. As the relevant multilateral agreement entered its final drafting stage and is expected to be formally signed this weekend, commodity risk premiums fell significantly. International oil prices plunged nearly 6% from recent highs, with U.S. crude retreating to around USD 85.80 per barrel.

The cooling of external friction risks and the temporary easing of inflation expectations have effectively realigned the short-term macro narrative. Market focus has shifted once again from “runaway inflation risks” back to the “policy cycle game.” As crude oil’s marginal impact on inflation pressure diminishes, constraints on the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate path have eased somewhat. Gold demonstrated strong institutional support after revisiting key liquidity zones. Looking ahead, if the agreement is successfully signed over the weekend, commodity market premiums may face further compression, allowing gold to rebuild a solid confidence anchor above USD 4,200. Conversely, if unexpected developments arise, a rebound in commodity prices combined with renewed safe-haven demand could once again significantly influence precious metals pricing.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 50,854.07 points. The index surged 930.07 points during the session, gaining 1.86%. It decisively broke above the 50,000-point psychological level, indicating that amid macroeconomic uncertainty, capital has clearly rotated into traditional value stocks with stable cash flows and defensive characteristics. Value-style arbitrage trading remained active.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Stood at 7.27K (approximately 7,270 points). The index declined 119.66 points, down 1.62% on the day. Although both the Dow and Nasdaq posted gains, the S&P 500 remained under pressure due to constituent weight adjustments and selling from certain cross-asset hedging funds. Sector rotation and divergence across industries were particularly intense throughout the session.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Closed at 29,568.25 points, rising 103.50 points or 0.35%. Despite valuation pressures from elevated U.S. Treasury yields, the resilience of AI-related and core technology assets supported modest gains. Defensive concentration within the technology sector remained evident.

Key Stocks

Intel (INTC): Closed at USD 116.96, soaring 9.27% during the session. Improved semiconductor cycle fundamentals and potential policy support attracted significant capital inflows, making it the leading performer within the technology sector.
Tesla (TSLA): Closed at USD 399.15, up 4.60%. The stock approached the USD 400 level as investors continued to price in its core role in policy-driven growth and high-tech infrastructure development.
Apple (AAPL): Closed at USD 295.63, gaining 1.39%. As a high-barrier blue-chip stock, Apple continued to serve as a market safe haven during periods of volatility, maintaining a steady upward trajectory.
Amazon (AMZN): Closed at USD 241.51, up 1.47%.
Alphabet-A (GOOGL): Closed at USD 357.77, edging up 0.39%.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Currently trading around 99.764. The index gained 0.089 points, up 0.09% intraday. Markets continue to digest recent macroeconomic data. Diverging global growth dynamics, coupled with fundamental support for the Federal Reserve’s “higher for longer” policy stance, have helped the dollar maintain a firm tone above 99.50 amid safe-haven demand.
USD/JPY: Trading at 160.182, up 0.13% on the day. Depreciation pressure on the Japanese yen intensified further as the pair pushed above the key 160 level. Although verbal intervention from the Bank of Japan remains possible, carry trade activity continues to thrive given the historically wide interest rate differential between the United States and Japan, making a fundamental reversal in capital flows difficult.
EUR/USD: Trading at 1.15717, down 0.06% intraday. Weak economic growth momentum within Europe and geopolitical uncertainties have limited the euro’s upside. The currency encountered significant technical resistance below 1.16 and continued to underperform other non-U.S. commodity-linked currencies.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Trading around USD 4,228.53 per ounce. The metal gained USD 17.56, or 0.42%, during the session. The combination of geopolitical risk premiums and rising long-term inflation expectations continues to attract safe-haven inflows, supporting a resilient consolidation pattern near historic highs.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Trading at USD 67.86 per ounce, up USD 0.44 or 0.65%. Silver displayed stronger price elasticity, with bullish sentiment supported by expectations of recovering industrial demand alongside its safe-haven appeal as a precious metal.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Trading at USD 86.90 per barrel. The contract slipped USD 0.33, down 0.38% on the day. Following a sustained rally, oil encountered technical profit-taking pressure below the USD 87 level. However, geopolitical supply uncertainties and relatively tight global energy inventories continue to provide solid fundamental support.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Trading at USD 63,556. The cryptocurrency remained largely stable, slipping just USD 2 with virtually no percentage change. After an extended period of volatility, Bitcoin entered a narrow consolidation phase around the USD 63,500 level. In a high-interest-rate environment, tighter liquidity conditions continue to limit breakout momentum, while markets await a new macro catalyst in the form of potential rate cuts.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Trading at USD 1,678.30. The asset rose USD 58.27, posting a gain of 3.60% despite broader market consolidation. With Bitcoin’s price action becoming increasingly stagnant, Ethereum demonstrated notable catch-up strength, reflecting improving on-chain activity and structural capital rotation within the crypto market.

5. Today’s Key Economic Events