Amillex Daily Market Review | Shifts in Geopolitical Expectations Trigger Market Volatility, Gold Rises While Crude Oil Declines

April 8, 2026, the financial market showed significant divergence during the early Wednesday Asian session. Influenced by news that the United States and Iran have reached a consensus on a ceasefire agreement and that follow-up negotiations are about to begin, safe-haven sentiment experienced a phase of disturbance. Spot gold demonstrated resilience amid market adjustments, rising more than 2.5% intraday, breaking through the key resistance level of $4820, and trading around $4823. Meanwhile, the energy market showed weakness. U.S. crude oil (WTI) saw a significant decline due to easing geopolitical supply concerns, dropping more than 19% and testing the $91.27 level intraday. The market is closely watching whether it can find effective support at the $90 psychological level.

From a macro perspective, the volatility in this round of market movements is mainly driven by the repricing of geopolitical risk premiums and cautious expectations regarding the policy environment. Despite signs of easing tensions, capital allocation to precious metals remains firm. Investors are turning their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes to assess the future interest rate path. If the minutes release a hawkish signal, precious metals may face technical correction pressure near the $4850 level. In the short term, the trajectory of the crude oil market will depend on global inventory changes and further developments in supply expectations, while the gold market will need to focus on liquidity conditions following data releases.

Asset Classes Market Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. 米国株式市場

インデックスパフォーマンス

Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Reported at 25,091.75. Surged 720.75 points intraday, with a gain of 2.96%. Technology stocks showed extremely strong upward momentum, as the market is pricing in better-than-expected progress in AI commercialization, with capital significantly concentrating in leading growth stocks.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Reported at 6,610 (approximately 6.61K). Slightly up by 0.44%. Despite gains in tech heavyweights, the overall rise was relatively moderate compared to the Nasdaq due to drag from energy and traditional industrial sectors, reflecting clear sector divergence.
ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均（DJI）: Reported at 46,584.46. Fell 85.42 points intraday, down 0.18%. As a representative of value stocks, the Dow underperformed amid the tech-driven rally, with heavyweight components weakening due to concerns over an economic slowdown.

株式ハイライト

Intel (INTC): Reported at $52.91, rising 4.19% against the broader market trend, reflecting optimism over improved yields in advanced process nodes and growth in its foundry business.
Apple (AAPL) & Tesla (TSLA): Under pressure, falling 2.07% and 1.75% respectively. Apple retreated to around $253.50, reflecting capital rotation within the tech sector toward high-performance computing (HPC) assets as global consumer electronics demand stabilizes.

2. 外国為替市場

米ドル指数（DXY）: Reported at 98.913. Down 0.61% intraday. The dollar fell below the 99 level, mainly due to the rebound of non-dollar currencies and marginal weakening of U.S. rate expectations, with safe-haven capital shifting from the dollar to hard assets.
米ドル/円: Reported at 158.506. Declined 0.69% intraday (yen appreciation). As the dollar weakens, the yen has strengthened its defensive stance near the 160 level, with partial unwinding of carry trades.
ユーロ/米ドル: Reported at 1.16813. Up 0.73%. The euro strengthened passively amid dollar weakness, but without significant improvement in European fundamentals, this rebound mainly reflects a contraction in dollar premium.

3. 貴金属および商品

貴金属

スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）: Reported at $4,804.58 per ounce. Rose another 2.10% intraday. Gold maintains a strong upward channel above the $4,800 level. The market is deeply pricing in fluctuations in the global central bank credit system and potential declines in long-term interest rates.
スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）: Reported at $76.188 per ounce. Surged 5.22% intraday. Silver shows stronger elasticity than gold, with the recovery of the gold-silver ratio reflecting extremely active speculative sentiment and resonance with industrial restocking expectations.

商品

原油（XTIUSD）: Reported at $96.65 per barrel. Experienced a cliff-like drop intraday, plunging 12.53%. The sharp fall reflects extreme market concerns over a global demand slowdown, possibly influenced by the removal of certain supply-side restrictions or sudden easing of geopolitical tensions, rapidly stripping away the previously elevated risk premium in oil prices.

4. 暗号資産とマクロダイナミクス

ビットコイン（BTCUSD）: Reported at $71,506. Slightly down 0.60% intraday. Despite the Nasdaq surge, BTC failed to rally in tandem, indicating significant profit-taking pressure above the $70,000 level, with its “digital gold” attribute recently overshadowed by the strong performance of physical gold.
イーサリアム（ETHUSD）: Reported at $2,235.27. Down 0.20%. Performance remains relatively subdued, as institutional liquidity is currently highly concentrated in U.S. AI core assets and precious metals, with the crypto market entering a short-term phase of capital rotation.

5. 今日の焦点