Amillex Daily FX Review | Geopolitical Tensions Surge; Oil Rally Sparks Inflation Fears, Weighing on Gold

July 24, 2026 — In Friday’s early Asian session, spot gold traded near $4,048.76/oz following a notable decline of nearly 2% on Thursday. The key driver behind this market turbulence was a sharp escalation in regional tensions, with security threats to critical maritime straits and rumors of major actions jolting energy markets. Brent crude surged over 6% on Thursday, topping $100/bbl. This surge in oil prices quickly raised global inflation expectations, forcing markets to reassess central bank policy paths. Rising rate-hike expectations heavily pressured non-yielding gold.

Looking ahead, market sentiment is caught between safe-haven demand and hawkish rate-hike expectations driven by inflation. High oil prices raise second-round inflation risks that may keep policymakers hawkish, pressuring gold in the short term. However, the evolving crisis provides strong underlying safe-haven support. Should tensions escalate further, gold retains momentum for a sudden rebound. Investors should closely monitor energy market dynamics and upcoming macro inflation data.

Analyse fondamentale et de la performance des actifs

1. Marché boursier américain

Performance de l'indice

Indice industriel Dow Jones (DJI): Down 507.07 points (-0.97%) at 51,717.16. Heavyweight stocks dragged the market below the 52,000 level as tech earnings sparked broader risk-off sentiment.
S&P 500 (SP500): Down 4.94 points (-0.07%) at 7,421.74. The index oscillated narrowly above 7,400. Surging mega-cap CapEx capped valuations, though defensive sectors offset some tech losses.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1 !): Up 8.50 points (+0.03%) at 28,629.25. The index entered a tug-of-war after early gains, showing clear divergence between AI hardware suppliers and software/EV giants.

Points saillants de l'action

Tesla (TSLA): Plunged 14.52% to $319.69. Q2 earnings revealed negative free cash flow and margin pressure. Management declared 2026 a “mega-CapEx year” (focusing on Robotaxi and Optimus), triggering intense pricing-in of near-term ROI risks.
Alphabet (GOOG): Dropped 7.13% to $317.69. Despite strong cloud growth, a steep hike in CapEx guidance sparked worries over AI ROI, adding pressure to high-valuation growth stocks.
Amazon (AMZN): Fell 4.57% to $233.66. Concerns over debt issuance and CapEx for cloud and AI infrastructure weighed on sentiment alongside the broader tech sell-off.
Intel (INTC): Slipped 2.33% to $100.23. The semiconductor sector consolidated at high levels as markets re-evaluated direct beneficiaries of mega-cap CapEx spending.
Pomme (AAPL): Declined 1.30% to $321.66. Backed by solid cash flow and its device ecosystem, Apple showed relative resilience during the tech pullback.

2. Marché des changes

Indice du dollar américain (DXY): At 101.427, down 0.01% (-0.009). The Fed remains in wait-and-see mode. Elevated US Treasury yields balanced out risk-off sentiment, keeping the dollar flat near 101.40.
EUR/USD: At 1.13792, up 0.02% (+0.00024). European fundamentals faced mild pressure, leaving the euro consolidating below 1.1400 without a strong directional catalyst.
USD/JPY: At 163.856, down 0.01% (-0.012). High US-Japan yield differentials kept yen carry trades active, with the pair hovering under resistance near 164.00.

3. Métaux précieux et matières premières

Métaux précieux

Or au comptant (XAUUSD): At ~$4,046.82/oz, down 0.07% (-2.960). Gold consolidated in a high range after breaking $4,000. Geopolitical risks and de-dollarization trends supported dips, though high yields capped upside.
Argent au comptant (XAGUSD): At $57.6225/oz, down 0.07% (-0.03750). Silver held strong in the $57–$58 range, driven by industrial demand and safe-haven flows.

matières premières

Pétrole brut WTI (XTIUSD): At $92.67/bbl, down 0.15% (-0.14). Escalating tensions and supply concerns kept oil firm above $90, with markets monitoring secondary inflation risks.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Trends

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Down 0.34% (-218) at $64,832. Ranged sideways after failing to break overhead resistance, influenced by risk-off sentiment in tech stocks.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Down 0.37% (-7.01) at $1,869.90. Continued to lag Bitcoin as tightening risk appetite directed capital toward traditional safe havens and macro assets.

5. Événements clés du jour