Amillex Daily FX Review | Geopolitical Tensions Surge; Oil Rally Sparks Inflation Fears, Weighing on Gold

July 24, 2026 — In Friday’s early Asian session, spot gold traded near $4,048.76/oz following a notable decline of nearly 2% on Thursday. The key driver behind this market turbulence was a sharp escalation in regional tensions, with security threats to critical maritime straits and rumors of major actions jolting energy markets. Brent crude surged over 6% on Thursday, topping $100/bbl. This surge in oil prices quickly raised global inflation expectations, forcing markets to reassess central bank policy paths. Rising rate-hike expectations heavily pressured non-yielding gold.

Looking ahead, market sentiment is caught between safe-haven demand and hawkish rate-hike expectations driven by inflation. High oil prices raise second-round inflation risks that may keep policymakers hawkish, pressuring gold in the short term. However, the evolving crisis provides strong underlying safe-haven support. Should tensions escalate further, gold retains momentum for a sudden rebound. Investors should closely monitor energy market dynamics and upcoming macro inflation data.

Asset Performance & Fundamental Analysis

1. US Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Down 507.07 points (-0.97%) at 51,717.16. Heavyweight stocks dragged the market below the 52,000 level as tech earnings sparked broader risk-off sentiment.
S&P 500 (SP500): Down 4.94 points (-0.07%) at 7,421.74. The index oscillated narrowly above 7,400. Surging mega-cap CapEx capped valuations, though defensive sectors offset some tech losses.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1!): Up 8.50 points (+0.03%) at 28,629.25. The index entered a tug-of-war after early gains, showing clear divergence between AI hardware suppliers and software/EV giants.

Stock Highlights

Tesla (TSLA): Plunged 14.52% to $319.69. Q2 earnings revealed negative free cash flow and margin pressure. Management declared 2026 a “mega-CapEx year” (focusing on Robotaxi and Optimus), triggering intense pricing-in of near-term ROI risks.
Alphabet (GOOG): Dropped 7.13% to $317.69. Despite strong cloud growth, a steep hike in CapEx guidance sparked worries over AI ROI, adding pressure to high-valuation growth stocks.
Amazon (AMZN): Fell 4.57% to $233.66. Concerns over debt issuance and CapEx for cloud and AI infrastructure weighed on sentiment alongside the broader tech sell-off.
Intel (INTC): Slipped 2.33% to $100.23. The semiconductor sector consolidated at high levels as markets re-evaluated direct beneficiaries of mega-cap CapEx spending.
Apple (AAPL): Declined 1.30% to $321.66. Backed by solid cash flow and its device ecosystem, Apple showed relative resilience during the tech pullback.

2. Forex Market

US Dollar Index (DXY): At 101.427, down 0.01% (-0.009). The Fed remains in wait-and-see mode. Elevated US Treasury yields balanced out risk-off sentiment, keeping the dollar flat near 101.40.
EUR/USD: At 1.13792, up 0.02% (+0.00024). European fundamentals faced mild pressure, leaving the euro consolidating below 1.1400 without a strong directional catalyst.
USD/JPY: At 163.856, down 0.01% (-0.012). High US-Japan yield differentials kept yen carry trades active, with the pair hovering under resistance near 164.00.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Metales preciosos

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): At ~$4,046.82/oz, down 0.07% (-2.960). Gold consolidated in a high range after breaking $4,000. Geopolitical risks and de-dollarization trends supported dips, though high yields capped upside.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): At $57.6225/oz, down 0.07% (-0.03750). Silver held strong in the $57–$58 range, driven by industrial demand and safe-haven flows.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): At $92.67/bbl, down 0.15% (-0.14). Escalating tensions and supply concerns kept oil firm above $90, with markets monitoring secondary inflation risks.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Trends

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Down 0.34% (-218) at $64,832. Ranged sideways after failing to break overhead resistance, influenced by risk-off sentiment in tech stocks.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Down 0.37% (-7.01) at $1,869.90. Continued to lag Bitcoin as tightening risk appetite directed capital toward traditional safe havens and macro assets.

5. Today’s Key Events