Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Resurgent Fed Rate Hike Expectations Weigh on Gold; Supply and Demand Outlook Adjustments Drag Down Oil Prices

On June 24, 2026, global commodity markets experienced a clear divergence driven by the interplay of macroeconomic policies and market sentiment. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s recent “higher for longer” tightening signals and rising market expectations for interest rate hikes, the US Dollar Index climbed strongly to a more than one-year high. This significantly suppressed the momentum of spot gold bulls, causing gold prices to fluctuate at low levels around the $4,100/oz mark during the early Asian session. At the same time, due to a marginal improvement in external uncertainty expectations, previously accumulated market correction pressure was heavily released, leading to a high-level pullback in major commodity prices.

The cooling of the external environment exerted more direct downward pressure on the energy market. Driven by expectations of supply chain recovery and the anticipation that major transportation channels will remain smooth, US crude oil vibrated lower to around $72.85/barrel, hitting a near four-month low. In the short term, due to the dual impact of profit-taking by institutional speculative long positions and macroeconomic liquidity tightening, the rapid upward pace of core assets such as gold and crude oil has slowed down. Moving forward, investors need to closely monitor the actual recovery progress of global shipping logistics as well as the upcoming US inflation and employment data to gauge the sustainability of the US Dollar Index at its highs and signals of a bottoming-out release for commodities.

عملکرد بازار و تحلیل بنیادی دارایی‌های مختلف

1. US Stock Market and Core Stocks

عملکرد شاخص

شاخص S&P 500 (SP500): Reported at approximately 7,470 points. Declined by 27.79 points or 0.37% within the day. The index faced temporary profit-taking pressure near historical highs, exhibiting defensive retracement characteristics overall.
شاخص نزدک ۱۰۰ (NQ1): Reported at 29,774.75 points. Bucked the trend to rise by 108.75 points or 0.37%. Driven by the Alpha attributes of large-cap tech growth stocks, the technology sector demonstrated strong resilience, partially offsetting the broader market’s downward pressure.
میانگین صنعتی داو جونز (DJI): Reported at 51,672.18 points. Edged down by 45.98 points or 0.09% within the day. Value stocks and traditional cyclical sectors diverged, with the index maintaining a sideways consolidation pattern above the 50,000 mark.

تمرکز سهام

تسلا (TSLA): Reported at $381.61, dropping sharply by 5.79%. Impacted by recent supply chain uncertainty expectations and capital rotation toward large-cap tech leaders, the stock price saw a significant intraday pullback with a notable surge in trading volume.
اینتل (INTC): Reported at $132.28, plunging by 6.14%. Deep divergence occurred within the semiconductor sector as the market gradually priced in uncertainties regarding its business transition period, resulting in a strong willingness for capital outflow.
اپل (AAPL): Reported at $294.30, easing by 0.91%. The stock price underwent technical consolidation just below the $300 psychological level.
Google-A (GOOGL): Reported at $346.13, falling by 1.02%. Profit-taking from the AI theme led to high-level volatility in the stock price.
آمازون (AMZN): Reported at $234.11, up slightly by 0.57%. It showed relative resilience among the falling tech giants, with fundamentals supporting defensive inflows of capital.

۲. بازار ارز خارجی

شاخص دلار آمریکا (DXY): Reported at 101.372. Edged down by 0.017 points or 0.02% within the day. Due to the Federal Reserve’s recent neutral-to-dovish stance, the market priced the macro interest rate path into a plateau phase, leaving the US dollar in a narrow range-bound consolidation above the 101 mark.
دلار آمریکا/ین ژاپن (USDJPY): Reported at 161.554. Edged down by 0.01% within the day. Although Bank of Japan officials recently reiterated verbal interventions, carry trades remained active because the US-Japan interest rate differential is still at a historical high, keeping the Yen in a normalized oscillation under deep depreciation pressure above the 161 mark.
یورو/دلار آمریکا (EUR/USD): Reported at 1.13814. Virtually flat within the day. Weak European economic growth momentum limited the room for a Euro rebound, causing the exchange rate to continue moving with low volatility within its key pivot range.

۳. فلزات گرانبها و کالاها

فلزات گرانبها

طلای اسپات (XAUUSD): Reported at approximately $4,110.80/oz. Edged up by $0.76 or 0.02% within the day. Geopolitical uncertainties and the long-term de-dollarization reserve demands from global central banks provided gold prices with strong resilience against declines at historical highs above $4,100.
نقره اسپات (XAGUSD): Reported at approximately $61.8445/oz. Advanced by 0.28455 points or 0.46% within the day. Silver benefited from the dual resonance of a precious metal safe-haven premium and industrial demand expectations from clean energy, with its volatility continuously outperforming gold.

کالاها

نفت خام WTI (XTIUSD): Reported at $73.40/barrel. Declined by $0.28 or 0.38% within the day. As the short-term premium from Middle East tensions marginally faded, the market’s focus shifted back to concerns over slowing global economic growth and sluggish energy demand from major consuming countries, putting oil prices under pressure below the $74 mark.

۴. دارایی‌های رمزنگاری‌شده و پویایی‌های کلان

بیت کوین (BTCUSD): Last reported at $62,769. Rebounded slightly by 118 points or 0.19% within the day. After experiencing earlier profit-taking, BTC showed signs of forming a bottom near the high-level pivot of $62,000, though total global liquidity remains constrained under the high interest rate environment.
اتریوم (ETHUSD): Reported at $1,668.16. Climbed by 3.12 points or 0.19% within the day. ETH’s performance was largely in sync with the broader market; in the short term, its on-chain activity dividend as a digital asset has not been fully released, and capital preferred traditional hard currencies or large-cap growth stocks.

۵. تمرکز امروز