On March 1, 2026, as global commodity markets entered a new trading cycle, they generally faced pressure due to rising macroeconomic uncertainties. In the trading session just passed, spot gold prices fell into a low-level consolidation around $4,009/oz. Looking back at previous performance, gold prices dropped by a cumulative 11.2% in June, leading to a significant overall decline of 14.14% in the second quarter. This marked the largest quarterly drop since 2013, as well as the first quarterly decline since 2024. The core logic behind this adjustment lies in the fact that persistent inflation concerns triggered by the external environment instead forced the market to strengthen its systemic expectations that the Federal Reserve might adopt more aggressive monetary policies (such as further rate hikes). Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the outlook for global supply chains made market sentiment increasingly cautious. Previously overcrowded safe-haven premiums faced long-unwinding pressure, causing gold prices to break below key technical support.
At the same time, the energy market also entered a strategic stalemate, with US crude oil prices currently trading around $70/bbl. Impacted by the interplay of negotiations among major global oil-producing nations and logistics risks in key maritime shipping channels, both long and short positions in crude oil fell into a deep standoff, leading to a sharp plunge of nearly 29% in oil prices overall during the second quarter. On the macroeconomic fundamental side, the intertwining of supply-side friction and macro uncertainties caused the commodity pricing logic to transition from the traditional “risk premium” to “tightening pressure.” The core driving force for the market ahead will depend on the forward interest rate guidance of major central banks and the performance of the latest inflation data. If macroeconomic tightening expectations fail to achieve marginal relief, gold and oil assets overall are expected to maintain high-level volatility and a technical repair pattern of base-building.
Multi-Asset Market and Fundamental Analysis
- US Stock Market
Index Performance
• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 52,324.22. Up 136.01 points within the day, a gain of 0.26%. The index continued its narrow-range volatile upward pattern above its previous historical highs. While digesting the uncertainty of macro policy expectations at the end of the quarter, capital was moderately allocated toward blue-chip value stocks with stable cash flows and defensive attributes, providing downside support to lift the index.
• S&P 500 Index (SP500): Closed at 7.44K (approximately 7,440 points). Jumped 86.41 points within the day, a gain of 1.18%. After consolidating sideways in the previous period, the S&P index unleashed strong bullish momentum, surging in a single day to break through key technical resistance levels. This indicates that against the backdrop of resilient internal corporate fundamentals, the risk appetite of institutional funds has significantly recovered.
• Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Closed at 30,541.25. Up slightly by 17.75 points, a gain of 0.06%. Core technology growth assets showed a noticeably divergence trend within the day. Although technical selling pressure on some high-Beta chip heavyweights capped the index’s upward momentum, the index managed to hold firmly above the key pivot line of 30,500 points, anchored by the resilient defense of the core AI ecosystem and mega-cap leaders.
Stock Highlights
• Intel (INTC): Closed at $139.63, skyrocketing 6.01% within the day. As the absolute leader driving the tech growth sector today, the market is heavily pricing in its advanced manufacturing capacity release and potential policy tailwinds. Short covering combined with institutional accumulation drove a explosive, high-volume surge in the stock price.
• Apple (AAPL): Closed at $289.36, jumping 2.70% within the day. During the market rebalancing phase, Apple attracted a massive influx of risk-hedging capital by virtue of its strong global hardware ecosystem premium and high cash-return defensive power. The stock price established a solid right-side upward channel above $280.
• Tesla (TSLA): Closed at $420.60, up 2.13% within the day. Marginal improvements on the production and delivery front of its core business, alongside the continuous fermentation of the autonomous driving narrative, pushed the stock price successfully through the $410 resistance band, with short-term bullish sentiment on the rise.
• Alphabet Class A (GOOGL): Closed at $357.37, up 1.05% within the day. Expectations for AI commercialization and the continuous expansion of cloud business fundamentals provided solid support for its valuation.
• Amazon (AMZN): Closed at $238.34, bucking the trend with a minor decline of 0.75%. Some funds engaged in phase-based profit-taking and position rotation at previous highs, triggering a technical retracement in the stock price within the day. - Forex Market
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Closed at 101.279. Rebounded 0.11% within the day. Despite recent complex macroeconomic variables, because the Federal Reserve’s attitude toward the monetary policy path remains neutral-to-hawkish, the market’s underlying logic of “Higher for Longer” regained support during the data vacuum, allowing the US dollar to secure phase-based defensive buying pressure above the 101 mark.
• USD/JPY (USDJPY): Closed at 162.742. Moved slightly higher by 0.09% within the day. Depreciation pressure on the Yen intensified further, with the exchange rate accelerating toward the major 163 threshold. Although verbal interventions from Bank of Japan officials remained frequent and strong, under the rigid macroeconomic backdrop where the core interest rate differential between the US and Japan still hovers at historical highs, the willingness to unwind Yen carry trades was extremely low, and capital continued to flow out.
• EUR/USD (EURUSD): Closed at 1.14099. Fell 0.10% within the day. Constrained by the phase-based rebound of the US Dollar Index, the Euro faced pressure below the 1.15 mark. The European Central Bank’s relatively more dovish policy tone, combined with weakening local economic recovery momentum within the region, limited the upside rebound space for the Euro. - Precious Metals and Commodities
Metales preciosos
• Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Closed at approximately $3,996.22/oz. Down $11.22 within the day, a loss of 0.28%. Gold prices encountered phase-based profit-taking by bulls on the eve of challenging the historical $4,000 psychological milestone. As US stock market risk appetite strongly warmed up during the day, the temporary push of safe-haven liquidity into traditional hard currency weakened, leading to a short-term technical stabilization and consolidation in gold prices.
• Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Closed at $58.3780/oz. Down 0.36% within the day. Due to its combination of industrial demand attributes and higher high-Beta speculative characteristics, silver’s intraday volatility continued to outpace gold while gold was locked in a high-level tug-of-war. It is currently undergoing a secondary test of the technical support strength at the $58 line.
Commodities
• WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Closed at $70.43/bbl. Down slightly by 0.10% within the day. Following a high-volume breakout in the previous period, oil prices have now fallen into a wide-range seesaw battle near $70.50. Although the pricing of potential supply disruptions from geopolitical premiums remains, macroeconomic worries over the recovery slope of future long-term manufacturing and overall commercial demand left oil prices in a short-term state of balance between long and short forces. - Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics
• Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Closed at $58,388. Dropped sharply by $138 within the day, a loss of 0.24%. After failing to break through previous key resistance bands, and in the absence of an effective catalyst to drive an upward breakout, Bitcoin suffered from partial profit-taking and an outflow of high-fear positions in the short term. The price was forced to retest the key pivot level at $58,500, with the technical outlook shifting into a weak sideways consolidation.
• Ethereum (ETHUSD): Closed at $1,569.80. Up slightly by 0.02% within the day. Ethereum’s overall performance was marginally stronger than the BTC chain. However, in a macroeconomic environment where the crypto market as a whole lacks systemic inflows of incremental capital, its capacity to absorb on-chain activity as a digital asset is facing severe compression from the US dollar’s risk-free high-interest-rate environment, maintaining a low-level range base-building pattern. - Focus Today
• Eurozone June Preliminary Core CPI YoY
• Eurozone June Preliminary CPI YoY
• US June ADP Employment Change
• US June ISM Manufacturing PMI
• US June ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid
• Bank of Canada Governor Macklem Speech
• European Central Bank President Lagarde Speech
• Bank of England Governor Bailey Speech
• Federal Reserve Governor Waller Speech
