Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Macro Tightening Expectations Disturb Commodities, Gold Under Pressure at High Levels While Crude Oil Regains Upward Momentum

On Monday morning, May 18, 2026, during the early Asian trading session, the global commodities market entered a phase of divergence amid the interplay of macroeconomic changes and supply chain expectations. Spot gold traded near USD 4,542 per ounce and is currently facing a short-term downside test of the key USD 4,500 per ounce psychological level. Market concerns over inflation triggered by supply chain anxiety continue to persist, which to some extent has strengthened macro expectations that major central banks may maintain high interest rates for a prolonged period or even tighten further. Driven by expectations of hawkish monetary policy, the U.S. Dollar Index continues to strengthen, directly squeezing liquidity for non-yielding assets such as gold, causing gold prices to remain under pressure at elevated levels amid the tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and rising real interest rates.

In contrast, the energy market has reacted more sensitively and directly to supply-demand risk premiums. U.S. crude oil opened today with a gain of more than 1%, trading near USD 102.27 per barrel. Although external statements once attempted to ease market panic, uncertainty surrounding the relevant regional situation remains elevated, and the risk of potential supply disruptions has become the main driving force supporting the structural strength in oil prices. Moving forward, all parties will continue to closely monitor the latest developments in fundamental data and marginal changes in macro policies, while the overall commodities market is expected to maintain a high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Reported at 49,530.94. Fell 537.07 points intraday, down 1.07%. Influenced by inflation concerns arising from geopolitical risk premiums, heavyweight industrial stocks saw significant profit-taking, pushing the index below the psychological 50,000-point level.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Reported at 7,410. Fell 92.74 points, down 1.24%. Hotter-than-expected CPI data weakened market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts within the year, resulting in a technical pullback after previous valuation expansion.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Reported at 29,004.50. Fell 227.25 points, down 0.78%. Although interest rate pressure created downside pressure on growth-oriented technology stocks, the safe-haven characteristics of AI infrastructure-related assets offset part of the losses.

Individual Stock Highlights

Intel (INTC): Reported at USD 108.77, plunging 6.18%. After surging sharply at the beginning of 2026, the stock experienced severe volatility due to market reassessment of the profitability timeline for its foundry business.
Tesla (TSLA): Reported at USD 422.24, dropping sharply by 4.75%. Concerns over global trade friction and rising raw material costs led to the rapid exit of speculative positions.
Apple (AAPL): Reported at USD 300.23, rising against the market trend by 0.68%. Amid market volatility, investors favored core assets with strong cash flow and solid fundamentals, highlighting AAPL’s “safe-haven” characteristics.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Reported at 99.376. Rose 0.11% intraday. Despite geopolitical volatility, resilient U.S. inflation data reinforced the “Higher for Longer” interest rate narrative, allowing the dollar to gain support above the 99 level.
USD/JPY (USDJPY): Reported at 158.87. Up 0.06%. Although expectations of verbal intervention by the Bank of Japan remain, the wide U.S.-Japan interest rate differential continues to limit the motivation for unwinding yen carry trades.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): Reported at 1.16116. Slightly down 0.11% intraday. The divergence between weak European economic fundamentals and sticky inflation left the euro lacking rebound momentum amid dollar strength.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Metales preciosos

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Reported at USD 4,485.30 per ounce, falling sharply by USD 52.98 intraday, down 1.17%. After previously reaching new highs, gold prices encountered a phase of technical retracement due to a stronger dollar and persistently high real interest rates, retreating below the 4,500 level.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Reported at USD 84.240 per ounce. Down 1.50%. Silver volatility remained significantly higher than gold, and as hot money exited safe-haven metals, silver faced additional pressure from slowing industrial demand expectations.

Commodities

Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Reported at USD 106.52 per barrel. Strongly up 1.16%. The deadlock in the Middle East and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz created substantial disruptions to supply, allowing crude oil to continue pricing in a “risk premium” above the USD 100 level.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Reported at USD 77,089. Fell 0.42% intraday. After facing selling pressure near the USD 90,000 level, BTC continued consolidating within the USD 75,000 to USD 80,000 range.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Reported at USD 2,108.41. Down 1.00%. ETH continued to underperform BTC, reflecting that under heightened macro uncertainty, capital preferred assets with “digital gold” characteristics rather than application-layer protocols.

5. Today’s Focus