Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Surge in Crude Oil Intertwined with Fed Minutes, Battle for Key Gold Levels Underway

On July 8, 2026, global financial markets in the early Asian session were once again caught in a tense pattern dominated by external uncertainties and monetary policy outlooks. As regional tensions escalated and energy supply concerns intensified, US crude oil surged over 5% intraday, returning to near $72.45/barrel. However, capital did not fully translate into a unilateral breakthrough for gold prices; spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range around $4,105/oz in early trading, facing a severe test at the $4,100 round-number mark. The rapid rise in energy prices reignited market concerns over secondary inflation, which in turn boosted expectations of interest rates staying higher for longer or even further tightening. Consequently, non-yielding gold endured a tug-of-war between safe-haven demand and rising yields.

Looking ahead, market pricing power is firmly locked onto the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June monetary policy meeting to be released this week. Under the Fed’s decision-making framework, the market urgently needs to gauge the officials’ latest balancing act between “supply chain inflation risks” and “labor market cooling” from the minutes. If the minutes deliver hawkish interest rate guidance, gold may face the risk of a short-term breakdown seeking lower support. Conversely, if policy stance leans toward data dependency and wait-and-see, buying interest after bottom-building could still leverage the sentiment to drive a phase-based rebound in gold prices.

Asset Class Performance & Fundamental Analysis

1. US Equity Markets

Index Performance

S&P 500 Index (SP500): Traded at approximately 7,540 (7.54K) points, up 54.19 points intraday, or 0.72%. Driven by divergence in tech leaders and sector rotation, the S&P 500 maintained its rebound resilience, with prices holding firm near historical highs. While digesting Q2 earnings expectations and interest rate paths, institutional support for large-cap blue chips remained strong.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Traded at 29,407.75 points, slightly up 16.25 points, or 0.06%. Performance was dragged down by divergence in the semiconductor sector and pullbacks in some mega-cap tech stocks, consolidating tightly near the 29,400 mark. The market maintains a cautious assessment regarding the monetization cycle of high capital expenditures in AI infrastructure.
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Traded at 52,930.28 points, down 131.01 points intraday, or 0.25%. After breaking through the 53,000 mark, the index suffered high-level profit-taking. Traditional industrial and cyclical sectors were under pressure as funds rebalanced in the short term toward targets with defensive attributes and high cash flows.

Stock Highlights

Intel (INTC): Traded at $110.39, sharply down 9.66% (-$11.81). Impacted by short-term profit-taking in chip stocks and market concerns over earnings prospects for certain semiconductor hardware, the stock dropped significantly, weighing on the overall risk appetite of the tech sector.
Tesla (TSLA): Traded at $402.90, down 4.02% (-$16.87). Tussle intensified near the $400 round-number level, with markets closely watching its short-term delivery data and progress on autonomous driving commercialization.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

US Dollar Index (DXY): Traded at 101.175, slightly up 0.05% (+0.054) intraday. Elevated US Treasury yields provided bottom support for the US dollar. The market continued to price in the macroeconomic logic of the Fed’s policy remaining “Higher for Longer,” keeping the US Dollar Index oscillating above the 101 mark.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): Traded at 1.14039, down 0.07% (-0.00075). Weak economic fundamentals in the eurozone and cooling inflation limited the upside space for the euro, with the exchange rate continuing its weak consolidation above the 1.14 mark.
USD/JPY (USDJPY): Traded at 162.378, up 0.16% (+0.260) intraday. US-Japan yield differentials remained at historical highs, and carry trade momentum showed no obvious decline, pushing the rate closer to 162.50. The market remained on high alert for potential verbal intervention and rate hike pacing by the Bank of Japan.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Metales preciosos

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Traded at $4,103.31/oz, down 0.07% (-$2.77) intraday. After breaking through the $4,100 mark, gold prices entered a high-level consolidation phase. Although geopolitical premiums and global central bank buying provided long-term support at lower levels, rising long-term US Treasury yields imposed short-term technical resistance.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Traded at $59.75550/oz, down 0.37% (-$0.22200) intraday. Ahead of approaching the key resistance level at $60, some profit-taking investors exited, sending prices into a short-term technical correction alongside the broader precious metals sector.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Traded at $72.83/barrel, up 0.55% (+$0.40). Influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and dynamic supply adjustments by major oil producers, oil prices continued to trade firmly above $72, with geopolitical risk premiums offering phase-based support to the energy sector.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Traded at $63,524, slightly up 0.34% (+$213) intraday. Bitcoin engaged in technical bottoming in the $63,000–$64,000 range, with market sentiment seeking balance between macro liquidity tightening and expectations of institutional inflows.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Traded at $1,775.88, up 0.33% (+$5.79). Moving in high synchronization with Bitcoin, Ethereum maintained narrow consolidation above the $1,750 support level. Overall risk appetite in the digital asset market remained constrained by the macro interest rate environment.

5. Today’s Key Events