Actualmente estás viendo Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Gold Breathers as US Dollar Retreats from Highs, Geopolitical Uncertainty Pumps Crude Oil Rebound

Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Gold Breathers as US Dollar Retreats from Highs, Geopolitical Uncertainty Pumps Crude Oil Rebound

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During Monday’s Asian trading session on June 29, 2026, the global commodity market showed a divergent recovery performance. Spot gold traded around $4,069/oz, mainly benefiting from a slight easing of market tension over the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike expectations, coupled with a mild retreat of the US dollar index from recent highs, which reduced the short-term holding cost of non-yielding assets. After experiencing a high-level correction earlier, gold showed technical support above the psychological level of $4,000/oz. Currently, bulls have resumed a small-scale offensive driven by marginal improvements in macro liquidity. Although inflation constraints and the long-term suppression of real interest rates still exist, the short-term weakness of the US dollar provides phased upward momentum for gold prices ahead of the release of core economic data this week.

In contrast to the volatile but resilient precious metals, the energy market recorded a significant premium again due to potential risks in the supply chain. US crude oil jumped over 1% at the opening, returning to the vicinity of the $70/bbl mark, as the latest evolution of the geopolitical situation injected a risk premium back into oil prices. Due to the escalation of military contacts in the relevant region over the weekend, the ownership control and passage uncertainty of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane, surged abruptly. Market concerns over energy supply disruptions outperformed the previous logic of supply-demand rebalancing in the short term. Looking ahead, although the meeting between the US and Iran scheduled for Tuesday in Doha may bring potential easing expectations to the market, the vulnerability of the energy supply chain will continue to provide bottom support for oil prices before substantial diplomatic results are delivered.

Market Performance and Fundamental Analysis of Assets

1. US Stock Market

Index Performance

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 51,881.18 points. It fell slightly by 45.02 points, or 0.09%, within the day. After the previous continuous gains, the index showed a narrow sideways consolidation pattern below the important level of 52,000 points, as capital maintained a game of existing funds between traditional value stocks and large-cap heavyweights.
  • S&P 500 Index (SP500): Closed at 7.35K (approximately 7,350 points). It edged down by 3.47 points, or 0.05%, within the day. Despite the overall sideways and slightly lower status due to the divergent performance of index components, the broader market still demonstrated strong resilience at historical highs.
  • Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1): Closed at 29,399.50 points. It rose against the trend by 31.25 points, or 0.11%. The localized strengthening of core tech assets became the main driving force supporting the Nasdaq against broader market selling pressure.

Stock Focus

  • Apple (AAPL): Traded at $283.78, rising significantly against the trend by 3.14%. As a core technology blue-chip, Apple showed a strong money-attracting effect in this round of adjustment. Amid macro uncertainties, funds tended to gravitate toward trillion-dollar giants with strong cash flows and technological moats.
  • Amazon (AMZN): Traded at $232.69, up 2.50%. The e-commerce and cloud service giant also received buying support, indicating liquidity divergence within the tech sector.
  • Tesla (TSLA): Traded at $379.71, up 1.22%. Continuing its high-elasticity characteristics, the stock price continued to fluctuate within its historical high range.
  • Google-A (GOOGL): Traded at $337.39, down 1.84%.
  • Intel (INTC): Traded at $128.32, plunging 3.42% within the day. Its weak performance amidst a localized rally in tech stocks reflected market concerns about the recovery pace of the traditional manufacturing side of semiconductors, with funds accelerating out of relatively weak non-core tech targets.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

  • US Dollar Index (DXY): Currently trading at 101.350. It fell slightly by 0.02% within the day. Although the US dollar index has generally maintained a narrow fluctuation above the 101 mark recently due to policy uncertainties and repeated inflation expectations, market traders are waiting for clearer macroeconomic indicators or statements from Fed officials, leaving long and short forces in a relatively balanced tug-of-war in the short term.
  • EUR/USD (EURUSD): Traded at 1.13876. It rose slightly by 0.02% within the day. Due to the unresolved structural growth pressures in some core European economies recently, the Euro faced certain resistance in breaking upward and is currently mainly consolidating passively following the narrow fluctuations of the US dollar.
  • USD/JPY (USDJPY): Traded at 161.744. It was virtually flat within the day (down 0.00%). The historical interest rate differential between the US and Japan remains at an extremely high level, fundamentally supporting the activity of carry trades. Despite market vigilance over potential verbal interventions or marginal policy tweaks by the Bank of Japan, the Yen remains under continuous endogenous depreciation pressure above 161.70.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Metales preciosos

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Traded at $4,068.20/oz. It fell by $12.33, or 0.30%, within the day. Gold prices suffered a minor technical pullback within the high-level ascending channel. As the US dollar index and long-term US Treasury yields gained brief support at key technical levels, some safe-haven funds chose to take profits locked in phases after gold prices hit historical high ranges.
  • Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Traded at $58.5785/oz. It fell by 1.03% within the day. Silver continued its consistent high Beta characteristics. Against the backdrop of gold’s minor pullback, the selling pressure on silver was further magnified, and the market is testing the technical support level around $58.

Commodities

  • WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Traded at $70.40/bbl. It fell by $0.49, or 0.69%, within the day. Oil prices showed signs of bulls slowing down at high levels after rushing above $70. On the macro level, the market is cautiously pricing in the cooling of global industrial demand expectations, entering a complex game with potential supply-side disruption risks in regions like the Middle East, leading to a wide-amplitude volatile structure for oil prices in the short term.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

  • Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Latest traded at $59,238. It fell by $235, or 0.40%, within the day.
  • Ethereum (ETHUSD): Currently trading at $1,559.95. It fell by $9.46, or 0.60%, within the day.

5. Focus Today

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