December 12, 2025 — The Nasdaq fell 0.61% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.37% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar Index edged higher while the yen remained under pressure. Spot silver surged 1% to USD 62.54/oz, hitting a new all-time high. Bitcoin tumbled 2.3% and fell below the USD 90,000 level. Market attention is sharply divided between “AI valuation correction” and “commodity supply-demand imbalances.”

Key Market Moves and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equities: Oracle Leads Tech Declines, AI Bubble Concerns Intensify

S&P 500: –0.37% to 6,861.30

Dow Jones: +0.05%

Nasdaq: –0.61% to 23,509.22

Stock Focus:

Oracle plunged 16% in after-hours trading, wiping out USD 102 billion in market cap in a single session.

Core Drivers:

Earnings Shock:

Oracle’s FY2026 Q2 revenue and cloud sales both missed expectations;

free cash flow came in at –USD 10 billion;

capital expenditure guidance was raised by USD 15 billion.

Debt Concerns:

Panmure Liberum warned that Oracle’s AI expansion relies heavily on debt financing, raising doubts about the AI sector’s overall profitability.

2. Commodities: Silver Hits Another Record High, Copper Supported by Tight Supply

Silver:

Spot silver rose 1% to USD 62.54/oz, bringing year-to-date gains to over 110%.

Drivers: surging solar (PV) demand, global inventories at 10-year lows, and speculative inflows amplifying price rallies.

Copper:

LME copper rose 0.5% to USD 11,618/ton, up more than 30% year-to-date.

Supply Risks:

Chilean mine accidents and tariff-avoidance-driven hoarding are worsening physical market tightness.

3. FX and Bonds: Dollar Rebounds Slightly, U.S. Yields Ease

Dollar Index: steady around 99.0, with Fed rate-cut optimism largely priced in.

U.S. Treasuries: 10-year yield fell to 4.14%, as safe-haven demand offset inflation concerns.

JPY: USD/JPY hovered near 156.0, cushioned by expectations of a BOJ rate hike in December.

4. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Breaks Below USD 90,000 as Institutional Outflows Grow

Bitcoin: –2.3% to USD 90,224

Ethereum: –4.1%

Sentiment Headwind:

Standard Chartered cut its 2025 year-end Bitcoin target from USD 200,000 to USD 100,000, citing fading ETF inflows and weakening institutional demand.

5. Crude Oil: Geopolitical Tensions Ease, Supply Glut Pressures Prices

Brent crude: –0.7% to USD 61.51/barrel

Bearish Drivers:

Oversupply: crude from Russia and Iran—both under sanctions—now accounts for 15% of global supply, heightening risks of offshore inventories shifting onshore.

Demand Worries: slowing global economic growth offsets the geopolitical premium from the Venezuelan tanker seizure.

Today’s focus

Germany November CPI (final, MoM)

U.K. October 3-month GDP (MoM)

U.K. October Manufacturing Output (MoM)

U.K. October Trade Balance (goods, £bn)

U.K. October Industrial Output (MoM)

France November CPI (final, MoM)

Canada October Wholesale Sales (MoM)