Amillex Daily Market Commentary | December NFP Misses Expectations, but Falling Unemployment Signals Ongoing Labor Market Resilience

January 12, 2026, following the release of the year’s first Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday, global markets have entered a renewed repricing phase as investors assess mixed signals from the U.S. labor market. December job growth came in at just 50,000, well below the 73,000 expected, extending the hiring slowdown seen late in 2025. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, helping to cushion market sentiment and ease immediate recession concerns. Structurally, weakness in manufacturing employment contrasted with continued hiring in the government sector, highlighting an uneven labor market backdrop. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations, suggesting wage pressures remain contained. As the first fully normalized labor report following recent government shutdown disruptions, the data reinforce a narrative of softer hiring alongside stable employment, prompting markets to shift out of holiday trading mode and refocus on macro fundamentals heading into 2026.

Asset Classes and Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market

Показатели индекса

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 49,504.07, up 0.48%. Supported by defensive sectors and large financial stocks, the index continued to show solid resilience.
S&P 500 Index: Rose 0.65% to 6,967, marking a new all-time closing high and underscoring persistent bullish sentiment across the market.
Nasdaq Composite: Gained 0.81% to 23,671.35. Ongoing momentum in AI-related themes and a rebound in heavyweight technology stocks provided strong support to the index.

Stock Spotlight

Tesla (TSLA): Experienced sharp volatility within the $440–$450 range. With the large-scale rollout of FSD v14 and regulatory approval for Robotaxi operations in select cities, Tesla has continued its transformation from a pure EV manufacturer into a leading AI robotics player. Short-term support is seen near $430; a sustained break above $450 could open the door to a test of previous highs.

2. Валютный рынок

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Remained firm near 99.1, trading at elevated levels. Despite expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical risk premiums and safe-haven demand continued to underpin the dollar.
EUR/USD: The euro remained under pressure amid a stronger dollar and easing inflation in the eurozone, last trading around 1.1637. Policy divergence between the ECB and the Federal Reserve remains the primary drag.
USD/JPY: The yen weakened notably, with USD/JPY breaking toward 157.8. While the Bank of Japan has hinted at rate hikes, this has yet to offset yield differentials that continue to weigh on the yen, pushing it toward recent lows.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Драгоценные металлы

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Saw profit-taking at elevated levels, trading around $4,500/oz. Despite the recent pullback, expectations of lower real interest rates and ongoing structural demand from central banks continue to provide underlying support.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Remained highly volatile, last trading near $82/oz.

Товары

WTI Crude Oil: Settled at approximately $59.1/barrel, rebounding from early-year lows.

Key drivers: Recent U.S. measures targeting Venezuelan oil exports have drawn market attention. While global supply conditions remain broadly loose, these short-term disruptions have helped keep oil prices supported within the $55–$60 range.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTC): Held above the $91,000 level during the Asian session, posting a modest 24-hour gain of around 0.6%. Price action remains range-bound, reflecting institutional positioning amid a macro data lull. With key inflation data still pending this week, the market lacks a clear directional catalyst, and BTC is undergoing technical consolidation between $90,000 and $92,000.
XRP (XRP/USD): Traded around $2.06, with daily volatility declining as prices enter a consolidation phase following a period of strong gains. After last year’s sharp rally, the asset is facing noticeable short-term profit-taking pressure as prior bullish catalysts are priced in.

5. Focus for Today