Amillex Daily Market Commentary | US–Iran Talks Stall, Rising Geopolitical Tensions, Gold and Oil Markets Open with Sharp Volatility

April 13, 2026, during early Asian trading, financial markets experienced significant volatility as external talks failed to reach an agreement. Last Saturday, both sides fell into a deadlock over key issues such as maritime passage, energy agreements, and asset disposal, leading to a rapid escalation of localized tensions. As the US implemented port restrictions and issued strong statements, safe-haven sentiment intertwined with supply concerns. As a result, international oil prices gapped higher at the open, with US crude surging 8% intraday and briefly breaking above the $105.50 per barrel level. The market is currently closely watching the strength of support at $105. If frictions escalate further, the energy risk premium may continue to drive oil prices higher.

At the same time, the gold market showed counterintuitive movement, with spot gold falling more than 2% at the open, trading around $4,652 per ounce. The main reason for this adjustment is that renewed geopolitical tensions have weakened expectations for rate cuts. As soaring energy prices may trigger a resurgence in inflation, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged in April has risen to 98.4%, and the potential rise in real interest rates is exerting short-term pressure on gold prices. Currently, gold is in a technical correction phase, and investors should be cautious of a shift in market logic from “safe-haven driven” to “rate suppression driven,” which may bring selling pressure. Investors need to pay close attention to subsequent developments, as this is highly likely to become a key guide for global asset pricing this week.

Market Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. 미국 주식 시장

지수 성과

Dow Jones Index (DJI): Reported at 47,916.57. Down 269.23 points, a decline of 0.56%. The index fluctuated narrowly below the 48,000 level, reflecting that under rising macro uncertainty, the safe-haven momentum of traditional heavyweight stocks is weakening, and funds are showing a clear defensive stance after continuous volatility.
S&P 500 지수(SP500): Reported at 6,748.22. Down 81.83 points, a decline of 1.20%. The index has pulled back significantly from historical highs, as the market is pricing in long-term interest rate concerns driven by sticky inflation, and funds are shifting from high-growth sectors to defensive or stable cash-flow sectors.
나스닥 100 지수(NQ1!): Reported at 24,968.00. Fell sharply by 313.25 points, a decline of 1.24%. High-valuation growth stocks are under heavy pressure amid expectations of tightening liquidity, with technical correction pressure further being released.

주요 주식 종목

Large-cap tech divergence: Despite the broad market decline, Tesla (TSLA) rose 0.96%, and Amazon (AMZN) surged 2.02%, showing resilience in core consumption and AI infrastructure assets. In contrast, Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) were weak, as the market remains uncertain about large-scale regulation and hardware cycles.

2. 외환 시장

미국 달러 지수(DXY): Currently around 99.129. Up 0.44%. The US dollar shows clear safe-haven attributes and “interest rate differential reversion” logic. Driven by risk aversion, the dollar reclaimed the 99 level, reflecting stronger market pricing for a prolonged high-rate environment by the Federal Reserve.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): Reported at 1.16716. Down 0.45%. Weighed by weaker Eurozone economic data and a stronger dollar, the euro has given back part of its earlier gains and is currently hovering below the 1.17 level.
미국 달러/엔(USDJPY): Reported at 159.740. Up 0.29%. The depreciation pressure on the yen is again approaching the key 160 threshold. Despite expectations of verbal intervention, carry trades remain active as long as the US-Japan interest rate differential has not materially narrowed.

3. 귀금속 및 원자재

귀금속

금 현물(XAUUSD): Around $4,665.88 per ounce. Down $83.80 intraday, a decline of 1.76%. Although gold remains in a historical high range, it saw a clear pullback due to a rebound in the US dollar and profit-taking, reflecting defensive repositioning after failing to break the 4,700 level.
은 현물(XAGUSD): Reported at $73.704 per ounce. Down 2.93%. Silver volatility significantly exceeds gold, not only dragged down by the overall correction in precious metals, but also by downward revisions in industrial demand expectations.

상품

원유(XTIUSD): Reported at $104.93 per barrel. Surged strongly with a gain of 9.63%. Oil prices broke through the $100 psychological resistance level, mainly driven by escalating Middle East tensions and potential supply disruptions. The rapid injection of geopolitical risk premium has made it one of the strongest performing safe-haven assets intraday.

4. 암호화 자산과 거시 경제 동향

비트코인(BTCUSD): Reported at $70,652. Slightly down 0.13%. Amid sharp volatility in traditional markets, BTC remains relatively stable and is currently undergoing technical consolidation around the $70,000 level.
이더리움(ETHUSD): Reported at $2,188.75. Down 0.14%. ETH continues to move in a range-bound pattern, as the market awaits clearer guidance from on-chain fundamentals and macro liquidity, and has not yet shown independent performance beyond the broader market.

5. 오늘의 초점