Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Sudden Escalation in the Middle East Amplifies Volatility, Oil Prices Surge on Gap Up as Gold Faces Pressure

On Monday, July 13, 2026, during early Asian trading, unexpected events in the Middle East triggered another round of severe turbulence across global financial markets. As navigation risks sharply escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical bottleneck for energy transit, the risk premium in crude oil markets surged instantaneously. US crude opened with a gap up of over 3%, quickly reclaiming the vicinity of $73.66/barrel. Anticipation of transit disruptions through the strait ignited deep market fears regarding a secondary supply-side disruption, thoroughly unlocking upside momentum for short-term oil prices.

Conversely, spot gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, delivered a relatively muted intraday performance, trading around $4,070/oz with notably constrained gains. This escalation in regional tensions directly stimulated global secondary inflation expectations, subsequently solidifying market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a tight monetary policy. Amid bets on dual strength in real interest rates and the US dollar, bullish offensive momentum for gold—a non-yielding asset—was partially locked down. Looking ahead, key focus remains on actual transit dynamics in the Strait of Hormuz and the latest remarks from Federal Reserve officials; the interplay between risk premiums and interest rate constraints will dictate the direction of short-term secondary market dynamics.

Asset Class Movements & Fundamental Analysis

1. 미국 주식 시장

지수 성과

다우존스 산업평균지수(DJI): Reported at 52,642.27 points. Up 150.01 points intraday, an increase of 0.29%. The Dow performed solidly, supported by industrial and traditional blue-chip sectors, as market digestion of soft-landing expectations drove capital flows into reasonably valued large-cap value stocks.
S&P 500 지수(SP500): Reported at approximately 7,580 points (7.58K). Up 31.75 points intraday, an increase of 0.42%. After breaching the major 7,500-point threshold, the index maintained high-level consolidation, as rebounds in traditional cyclical sectors and select leading consumer/tech stocks offset pullbacks in high-valuation technology sectors.
나스닥 100 지수(NQ1!): Reported at 29,990.50 points. Down 41.75 points, a decrease of 0.14%. Heavyweight tech stocks saw divergent trends, with the index facing pressure near the 30,000-point mark, while high-level consolidation in long-end yields exerted marginal pressure on high-P/E growth stocks.

주식 집중 분석

테슬라(TSLA): Reported at $407.76, 위로 0.30%. The stock stabilized and consolidated above the $400 psychological mark as investors digested the latest delivery data and autonomous driving policy expectations.
애플(AAPL): Reported at $315.32, down slightly by 0.28%. Consolidating at high levels around $315, as global supply chain disruptions and wait-and-see sentiment surrounding consumer electronics replacement cycles capped its short-term upward momentum.
인텔(INTC): Reported at $109.84, falling sharply by 2.40%. Sector rotation within semiconductors intensified; constrained by the competitive landscape and scrutiny over capital expenditure return cycles, the stock experienced a clear technical pullback.
Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOGL): Reported at $245.34 (-0.69%) and $357.18 (-0.48%), respectively. Mega-cap tech platform stocks faced general pressure, reflecting cautious market pricing regarding cloud service growth and the monetization of AI capital expenditures ahead of a major earnings season.

2. 외환 시장

미국 달러 지수(DXY): Reported at 101.111. 위로 0.15% (+0.146) intraday. The US Dollar Index demonstrated resilience at the 101 mark, primarily driven by sticky inflation expectations supporting a Federal Reserve policy tilt toward keeping rates “Higher for Longer,” which limited its downside.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): Reported at 1.13986. Down 0.14% (-0.00164). The Euro pulled back below the key psychological level of 1.1400, as weak manufacturing economic data in the Eurozone and persistent US-Europe interest rate differentials led to notable selling pressure on Euro rallies.
미국 달러/엔(USDJPY): Reported at 161.964. 위로 0.16% (+0.259). The Yen approached the 162 level, as the massive interest rate differential between the US and Japan kept carry trades active. Despite rising threats of potential verbal intervention by the Bank of Japan, the momentum of capital outflows showed no substantive reversal.

3. 귀금속 및 원자재

귀금속

금 현물(XAUUSD): Reported at approximately $4,082.03/oz. Fell sharply intraday by $37.03, 아래에 0.90%. Gold experienced profit-taking after spiking higher; rising US Treasury real yields and a rebounding US dollar presented short-term headwinds for the non-yielding asset, causing safe-haven buying to temporarily diminish.
은 현물(XAGUSD): Reported at approximately $59.17/oz. Down 1.15% (-$0.69). Silver’s high volatility was on full display; amid expectations of a slowdown in industrial goods coupled with gold’s pullback, the broader precious metals sector saw temporary profit-locking by capital.

상품

WTI 원유(XTIUSD): Reported at $74.16/barrel. Strongly rebounded by 3.55% (+$2.54). Geopolitical risk premiums were re-priced, compounded by risks of localized supply disruptions in the Mediterranean and Middle East, driving oil prices to break through the $74 resistance in one stroke and making it the top-performing physical asset of the day.

4. 암호화 자산 및 거시 경제 동향

비트코인(BTCUSD): Reported at approximately $64,217. Up slightly by 0.74% (+$473) intraday. BTC showed resilience at the $64,000 support level; as market liquidity stabilized, the crypto market entered a range-bound consolidation phase following previous deleveraging.
이더리움(ETHUSD): Reported at approximately $1,834.07. 위로 1.58% (+$28.56). ETH outperformed the broader market, with a slight uptick in on-chain network activity and capital inflows into the Layer 2 ecosystem providing rebound momentum for the price.

5. 오늘의 초점