Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Geopolitical Stalemate Supports High Consolidation as Markets Await US CPI for a Breakout

On Wednesday, August 12, 2026, during the early Asian session, spot gold was trading near $4,373/oz, pulling back slightly from its previous two-month high near the $4,400/oz threshold. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain the primary anchor supporting commodity prices. Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed unless the US changes its stance and accepts its ceasefire conditions, driving US crude oil up to a one-week high near $83.50/bbl. However, after several consecutive days of gains, profit-taking by some investors capped short-term upward momentum, keeping the market in a delicate tug-of-war balance.

Looking ahead, market focus has fully shifted to incoming US macroeconomic data. The upcoming US July Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases this week will serve as crucial metrics for evaluating the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. If inflation rebounds above expectations, it could reinforce market anticipations of the Fed maintaining high interest rates or delaying rate cuts, thereby providing support for the US dollar and pressuring gold. Conversely, if inflation continues to cool, the dual resonance of geopolitical safe-haven demand and monetary easing expectations could drive gold to retest and challenge the highs above $4,400.

Asset Performance & Fundamental Analysis

1. US Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): At 53,797.39, down 184.02 points (-0.34%). Dragged down by profit-taking in heavyweight blue-chips and traditional cyclical sectors, the Dow faced mild pressure below the 54,000 mark, reflecting capital rebalancing away from high-valuation value stocks amid prolonged wait-and-see interest rate expectations.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): At 7,739.48, up a marginal 0.53 points (+0.01%). The index traded in an extremely narrow range throughout the session, with bulls and bears locked near 7,750. Sector divergence was significant; tech heavyweights and defensive sectors offset each other, keeping the broader market in a high-level consolidation zone.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): At 29,669.75, up 43.75 points (+0.15%). Despite noticeable selling pressure on certain megacap tech stocks, resilience in semiconductors and AI infrastructure names supported a modest gain, though sentiment remained cautious ahead of the 30,000 psychological barrier.

Stock Highlights

Alphabet (GOOG): At $343.80, down 3.84%. Rattled by regulatory compliance rumors and antitrust policy uncertainty, market sentiment split over short-term ROI on capital expenditures, prompting strategic portfolio adjustments.
Amazon (AMZN): At $272.27, down 2.09%. Shares fell under pressure following re-evaluations of consumer resilience and short-term downward revisions to cloud computing growth forecasts.
Apple (AAPL): At $304.91, down 1.09%. Consolidating above the $300 round level, the stock remains constrained by hardware supply chain adjustments and macro expectations of sluggish end-user demand.
Tesla (TSLA): At $332.81, up 0.58%. Progress in autonomous driving commercialization and valuation re-ratings for its energy storage business helped it outperform the broader market.
Intel (INTC): At $97.71, up 0.19%. Hovering steadily near $98, supported on the downside by official CHIPS Act subsidy disbursements and ongoing capacity restructuring plans.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

US Dollar Index (DXY): At 99.808, flat (0.00%). The index consolidated tightly below the 100 mark. With markets in a observation phase ahead of tariff policy debates and inflation data, neutral Fed remarks slowed US Treasury yield momentum, leaving the dollar without a clear macro catalyst for a directional breakout.
EUR/USD: At 1.15431, up 0.01%. The euro stagnated in front of resistance at 1.1550. As ECB rate-cut expectations are fully priced in and regional economic momentum remains weak, an independent bullish breakout remains unlikely.
USD/JPY: At 159.262, down 0.02%. The pair fluctuated just below the key 160 psychological and intervention threshold. Although the Bank of Japan issued hawkish verbal warnings, wide US-Japan yield differentials continue to encourage carry-trade selling, limiting yen rebounds.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Metalli preziosi

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): At $4,382.91/oz, up $14.665 (+0.34%). Gold maintained its high consolidation above $4,350. Global central bank reserve diversification away from the dollar, sovereign debt sustainability concerns, and geopolitical risk premiums collectively form a solid macroeconomic foundation for elevated gold prices.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): At $65.01/oz, up $0.3255 (+0.50%). Silver continued to outperform gold, extending gains after breaking $64. Structural supply tightness combined with safe-haven and industrial demand synergies reinforced a strong bullish trend.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): At $83.80/bbl, up $0.47 (+0.56%). Crude steadily tested the $84 resistance level. Supply-side geopolitical threats combined with peak summer travel inventory drawdowns pushed short-term energy risk premiums higher.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): At $63,653, up $110 (+0.17%). Bitcoin underwent technical consolidation in the $63,000–$64,000 range. After digesting profit-taking selling, the market is absorbing macro liquidity expectations, with liquidity premiums returning to neutral and price action contracting near highs.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): At $1,881.06, up $0.34 (+0.02%). ETH traded sideways around the $1,880 pivot level. Lacking independent ecosystem catalysts, it tracked the broader crypto market’s wait-and-see stance.

5. Key Events Today