Stai visualizzando Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Cooling Policy Expectations Push Gold Prices Back Up; Supply-Demand Uncertainties Stir Commodity Markets

Commento giornaliero di Amillex sui mercati | Le aspettative di un allentamento delle politiche monetarie spingono nuovamente al rialzo i prezzi dell'oro; le incertezze sulla domanda e sull'offerta agitano i mercati delle materie prime.

On July 6, 2026, the global financial markets presented a complex, mixed long-short pattern during Monday’s early Asian session. Spot gold edged higher, trading near $4,190/oz, primarily catalyzed by the lagged effect of recent weakening macro employment data. The sluggish growth significantly reduced market bets on future Federal Reserve rate hikes, while the periodic retreat of the US dollar index and Treasury yields lowered the holding cost of non-yielding assets, providing critical fundamental support for precious metal bulls.

Meanwhile, the focus of the energy market is heavily locked onto policy changes on the supply side of commodities. Influenced by expectations of multilateral talks among relevant oil-producing nations, US crude oil is currently fluctuating within a narrow range around $68.38/bbl. Although the market expects this round of dialogue to center on core issues such as easing sanctions and asset adjustments, rumors regarding changes in capacity facilities have once again cast a shadow over the future supply-demand balance. This potential supply-side uncertainty has, to some extent, offset the cautious sentiment in the oil market. Looking ahead, until the key multilateral dialogues become clear, the repeated switching of market premiums will continue to dominate the short-term direction of major commodity assets.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. US Stock Market

Index Performance

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 52,905.28 points. It rallied strongly by 595.06 points intraday, an increase of 1.14%. After a previous period of sideways consolidation, the Dow gained upward momentum again. Weighted value stocks and traditional cyclical sectors were favored by capital, indicating a macro capital preference for allocating toward defensive, high-dividend assets with stable cash flows during periods of policy uncertainty.
  • S&P 500 Index (SP500): Closed at 7.48K (approximately 7,480 points). It edged up by 0.01 points intraday, ending virtually flat. The index faced obvious selling pressure at historical highs, with the broader market locked in a long-short tug-of-war before the major 7,500-point mark. Severe divergence in the performance of tech giants capped the index’s overall gains.
  • Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1): Closed at 29,929.75 points. It surged by 373.75 points intraday, an increase of 1.26%. The continued resilience of core AI infrastructure assets, combined with the strong rebound of some oversold tech leaders, supported the Nasdaq as it fluctuated at a high level near the 30,000-point mark.

Stock Highlights

  • Apple (AAPL): Closed at $308.63, jumping by $14.25, a gain of 4.84%. Against the macro backdrop of fundamental revaluation for global tech stocks, Apple attracted concentrated capital chasing due to its recent robust supply chain performance and the logic of cost reduction and efficiency gains in AI terminals, allowing its stock price to successfully hold above the psychological $300 level.
  • Tesla (TSLA): Closed at $393.45, plunging by $31.85 intraday, a decline of 7.49%. Under the dual pricing of market expectations for a delayed rate-cut path and global policy uncertainties surrounding electric vehicles, liquidity pressure on high-valuation growth stocks spiked sharply, causing the stock price to retreat after encountering strong technical resistance above $400.
  • Intel (INTC): Closed at $120.35, dropping by 5.25%. Divergence within the semiconductor industry was highly apparent. The slowdown in traditional process technology and the PC recovery slope left some non-core AI chip assets under pressure amid a high-interest-rate macro environment.
  • Amazon (AMZN): Closed at $242.67, ticking up by 0.40%, maintaining a high-level consolidation in sync with the broader market, supported by its cloud business fundamentals.
  • Google (GOOGL): Closed at $359.91, down slightly by 0.36%, experiencing short-term profit-taking at highs amid regulatory pressures and expectations of AI search competition.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

  • US Dollar Index (DXY): Currently trading at around 100.880. Intraday change of 0.00% (virtually flat). The US dollar index fluctuated within a narrow range below the 101 mark. The market is currently pricing in a relatively neutral interest rate path from the Federal Reserve. The stickiness of inflation expectations provides solid baseline support for the greenback, but it lacks a powerful hawkish catalyst to push the exchange rate further up.
  • USD/JPY (USDJPY): Trading at 161.555. Up slightly by 0.11% intraday. Depreciating pressure on the yen intensified once again, with the exchange rate approaching the 162 mark. Despite frequent verbal interventions from Bank of Japan officials, the USD/JPY interest rate differential remains in historical high territory, keeping yen carry trade activity vibrant and maintaining a continuous outflow of capital.
  • EUR/USD (EURUSD): Trading at 1.14373. Up slightly by 0.01% intraday. The euro consolidated below the 1.15 mark. Weakness in the Eurozone’s internal core annual economic growth fundamentals capped its rebound momentum and breakthrough space during the US dollar’s periodic stagflation.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Metalli preziosi

  • Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Gold prices maintained strong resilience at highs, trading at around $4,175.93/oz. It edged up by $0.90 intraday, a gain of 0.02%. Although the Fed’s interest rate path scaled back the frequency of rate cuts, global policy uncertainties and geopolitical risk premiums jointly drove safe-haven capital into gold following technical corrections, keeping the metal within a historic upward channel above $4,100.
  • Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Trading at around $62.6230/oz. It rose by $0.22 intraday, a gain of 0.35%. Silver exhibited a dual resonance of safe-haven properties and industrial demand expectations, ensuring its continued attractiveness as a high-volatility asset since the start of the year.

Commodities

  • XTIUSD Crude Oil (WTI): Currently trading at around $68.50/bbl. It fell by $0.61 intraday, a decline of 0.88%. Affected by slowing macroeconomic data such as global manufacturing PMIs, market concerns arose over medium-to-long-term demand for crude oil. The oil price failed its upward test of the $70 resistance level, causing short-term bullish sentiment to cool as prices returned to the consolidation range.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

  • Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Last traded at around $63,672. It edged up by $85 intraday, a gain of 0.13%. Following a prolonged technical correction, Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilizing around the key pivot level of $63,000–$64,000. As macro liquidity tightened periodically, risk appetite for crypto assets turned noticeably cautious after failing to break through previous highs.
  • Ethereum (ETHUSD): Trading at around $1,791.06. It rose by $6.86 intraday, a gain of 0.38%. ETH’s recent performance has been relatively weaker than BTC and traditional hard currencies (such as gold). This reflects that within a market structure dominated by macro long-short battles and safe-haven sentiment, the alpha premium of digital assets has temporarily yielded to more defensive traditional assets, with ETH currently consolidating existing capital below the $1,800 threshold.

5. Focus Today

  • US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI