Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Gold Volatility Tests $4,600 as Inflation Expectations Ease but Tug-of-War Intensifies

March 26, 2026 — Global gold markets saw another round of sharp volatility on Wednesday (March 25). Spot gold surged nearly 3% intraday, briefly testing the key $4,600 level before pulling back under profit-taking pressure, closing at $4,506.49.

The core driver behind this move lies in the market’s complex balancing act between macro risks and inflation expectations. On one hand, ongoing global uncertainty continues to inject safe-haven demand into gold. On the other, signals from major oil-producing nations have helped cap oil price gains, easing concerns over a second wave of inflation and indirectly tempering expectations for more aggressive rate hikes.

Market Overview & Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones (DJI): 46,429.49 (+0.66%)
Markets are digesting the Federal Reserve’s March decision to hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%.
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,597.90 (0.00%)
Ongoing rotation between growth (tech) and defensive sectors.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ): 24,398.25 (+0.13%)
Long-term support from AI-driven productivity expectations remains intact, though rising bond yields are capping short-term upside.

Stock Focus

Tesla (TSLA): $385.95 (+0.76%)
Slight outperformance as markets price in improved demand and capital expenditure outlook for the first half of 2026.

2. Forex Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 99.683 (+0.05%)
Consolidating just below the 100 level, supported by relative yield advantages over other major currencies.
USD/JPY: 159.464 (flat)
Yen remains weak near 160, as expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike are pushed further out. Intervention risks remain high.
EUR/USD: 1.15548 (-0.03%)
Euro stays soft, reflecting energy import pressures and a relatively earlier shift toward monetary easing compared to the Fed.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Metalli preziosi

Gold (XAU/USD): $4,531.35 (+0.54%)
After hitting record highs in January, gold is in a medium-term correction phase. Despite elevated real yields, geopolitical risks—especially from the Middle East—continue to support prices above $4,500.
Silver (XAG/USD): $71.72 (+0.66%)
Silver shows stronger elasticity than gold, driven by expectations of industrial demand recovery and physical supply constraints.

Commodities

Crude Oil (WTI): $91.78 (+0.07%)
Holding above $90 as markets price in geopolitical risks, particularly potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and tight supply from major producers.

4. Crypto Market

Bitcoin (BTC): $71,331 (+0.04%)
Consolidating above $70K as institutional positioning stabilizes; market awaits new macro catalysts.
Ethereum (ETH): $2,167.9 (-0.01%)
Continues to trade below the $2,200 level, underperforming relative to gold and Bitcoin.

5. Today’s Key Focus