Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Stabilizing External Environment Boosts Market Confidence, Gold Holds Firm at High Levels While Oil Prices Retreat Under Pressure

On April 21, 2026, global markets focused on substantive progress during a key diplomatic window period. In early Asian trading, spot gold showed strong resilience, fluctuating narrowly around $4,826 per ounce. Although the relevant international agreement is about to expire, and exact confirmation of a new round of formal talks has yet to be finalized, overall market sentiment remains optimistic. As the convoy of senior U.S. officials departed this morning Beijing time, this positive signal was seen as all parties striving to seek consensus before a critical juncture. Driven by these expectations, although market volatility has not fully subsided, the moderate pullback in the U.S. Dollar Index has provided technical support for gold prices. Bulls maintained cautious trading at the current level, awaiting further policy guidance.

By contrast, the energy market remained weak due to shrinking premium expectations. U.S. crude oil faced selling pressure after the open, once falling to $85.50 per barrel, and is currently trading near $86.45 per barrel, with an intraday decline of more than 1%. The retreat in oil prices reflects the market’s positive bets that tensions may ease, as well as preliminary pricing-in of reduced supply chain disruption risks. From a macro perspective, the current movements of gold and crude oil show clear differences in sensitivity: gold prices are more supported by monetary attributes and macro uncertainty, while oil prices are directly anchored to actual risks in the supply-demand environment. If substantive positive developments emerge from intraday communications, oil prices may continue to unwind previous premiums, while gold prices need to watch for high-level correction pressure caused by changes in the U.S. dollar trend.

Market Conditions and Fundamental Analysis of Various Assets

1. U.S. Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Index (DJI): Reported at 49,442.56. Slightly down 4.87 points, a decline of 0.01%. The index displayed strong defensive characteristics below the key resistance level of 49,500 points. Capital rotated sideways among large-cap value stocks, showing the market remains cautious toward the current high-rate plateau environment.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Reported at 7,130 (7.13K). Surged 1.20% intraday. After holding firmly above 7,000 points, the S&P showed strong upward momentum, reflecting that the broad-based index is digesting macro policy uncertainty under support from earnings expectations.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1): Reported at 26,827.00. Up 0.29%. Although technology heavyweights saw volatility, the overall valuation framework found short-term balance amid the tug-of-war between AI computing demand and rate-cut expectations.

Individual Stock Focus

Apple (AAPL): Reported at $273.05, rising against the trend by 1.04%. As a stabilizing pillar of the technology sector, Apple’s strength partly offset weakness in other tech leaders.
Tesla (TSLA) and Intel (INTC): Fell 2.03% and 4.09% respectively. Capital outflows from semiconductors and terminal manufacturing sectors show concerns over gross margin pressure in hardware supply chains ahead of earnings season.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Reported at 98.097. Slightly up 0.04%. The dollar index remains range-bound and firm near the 98 level. Although the market is pricing in a possible Fed easing cycle, the lagging growth momentum of non-U.S. economies means the dollar’s “safe-haven premium” still exists.
USD/JPY (USDJPY): Reported at 158.952. Up 0.08%. Pressure on yen depreciation has not eased. As the U.S.-Japan interest rate spread remains in a historical high range, the inertia of carry trades continues pushing the yen toward the 160 psychological level.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): Reported at 1.17827. Down 0.04%. The euro remains constrained by weak Eurozone manufacturing PMI data and lacks rebound momentum under a stronger dollar backdrop.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Metales preciosos

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Reported at approximately $4,817.83 per ounce, down slightly 0.06%. After a previous historic surge, gold prices have now entered a technical consolidation phase above $4,800. Although short-term inflation expectation fluctuations caused the slight decline, the long-term logic of global central bank de-dollarization provides underlying support for gold prices.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Reported at $79.526 per ounce. Down 0.18%, with volatility significantly higher than gold, reflecting intensified speculative positioning near the $80 level.

Commodities

Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Reported at $89.11 per barrel. Strongly up 0.66%. Due to potential escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions and expectations of tighter supply, oil prices are approaching the psychological resistance zone of $90, further intensifying market concerns over “secondary inflation.”

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Reported at $76,198. Up 0.43% intraday. BTC has shown strong resilience above $75,000, reflecting that its asset attribute as “digital gold” continues attracting institutional accumulation amid current global liquidity uncertainty.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Reported at $2,322.73. Up 0.34%. ETH remains relatively weaker. Due to the diversion effect of on-chain activity and Layer 2 expansion, its aggressiveness as a beta asset is currently somewhat inferior to BTC.

5. Today’s Focus