October 17, 2025 — Yesterday, TSMC’s stronger-than-expected Q3 results fueled optimism across the AI supply chain, driving all three major U.S. stock indexes higher. Spot gold soared past $4,250 per ounce to a record high, extending its year-to-date gains to over 60%. Meanwhile, international crude oil prices fell below $58 per barrel as concerns over a growing supply-demand imbalance deepened, and cryptocurrencies consolidated with Bitcoin holding firm above $112,000.

U.S. Equities: TSMC Leads Tech Rally as Cyclical and Defensive Sectors Rise Together

S&P 500 +0.32%, Dow Jones +0.19%, Nasdaq +0.41%, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index +1.5%+.

Top performers: AI chipmakers (TSMC +3%), rare earth stocks (Critical Metals +14%), and banking sector stocks helped stabilize the market.

Key Drivers:

TSMC Earnings Beat: Q3 revenue rose 18% year-over-year; mass production of its 2nm process is ahead of schedule, signaling sustained AI infrastructure investment.

Resilient Economic Data: U.S. September core CPI rose 2.2% year-over-year (vs. 2.0% prior), easing hard-landing fears but reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.

Precious Metals: Gold Breaks $4,250 as Exchanges Issue Risk Warnings

Spot gold hit an intraday high of $4,255 and closed at $4,232, marking a fourth consecutive record close. In China, retail gold jewelry prices surpassed 1,248 yuan per gram.

Spot silver climbed above $52, with year-to-date gains of 83%, though ETF holdings remain far below historical peaks.

Fundamental Analysis:

Policy Support: Fed rate-cut probability for October nears 100%; real yields expected to fall, underpinning gold prices.

Safe-Haven Demand: Rising geopolitical tensions (U.S. aircraft carrier deployment to the Arabian Sea) and the 16th day of the U.S. government shutdown spurred safe-haven inflows.

Regulatory Caution: Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of “sharp price volatility” and urged risk control; several banks raised minimum purchase thresholds for gold accumulation plans.

Commodities: Crude Oil Falls to $58 as Supply Surplus Deepens

WTI crude fell 1.2% to $58.30/barrel, while Brent crude slipped below $62, its lowest level since June.

Bearish Factors:

Supply Glut: EIA data showed a 4.6 million-barrel inventory build, exceeding forecasts; OPEC+ to proceed with its November production increase.

Demand Concerns: Weak global manufacturing PMI and trade tensions continue to weigh on energy consumption.

Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Holds Steady as AI Tokens Outperform

Major tokens: Bitcoin -1.29% to $112,000, Ethereum -2.6% to $4,100.

Bright Spot: AI-linked tokens gained 4.51%, with ChainOpera AI (COAI) surging 56% in a single day.

Market Sentiment: Leveraged long liquidation pressure eased, but macro uncertainty continues to cap risk appetite.

FX & Bonds: Dollar Softens Slightly, Treasury Yields Steady

U.S. Dollar Index edged down to 98.10; USD/JPY retreated to 151.50.

Treasuries: 10-year yield steady at 4.12%; the Fed’s Beige Book described the economy as showing “modest expansion.”

Today’s focus

U.S. September Housing Starts: Expected 1.31 million (vs. 1.307 million prior). A miss could fuel growth slowdown concerns.

Eurozone September CPI Final: A confirmed 2.2% YoY may limit ECB’s easing scope.

Fed Beige Book: Watch for commentary on “labor market cooling” and “persistent inflation.”

EU Fiscal Meeting: Progress on Greece’s debt restructuring could lift the euro.

TSMC Earnings Call: Focus on 2026 CapEx guidance—an upward revision may boost global semiconductor sentiment.

Morgan Stanley & American Express: Bank earnings will be key to gauging the resilience of consumer spending.