December 8, 2025 — The U.S. Dollar Index slid to 99.00, a five-week low; spot gold closed at USD 4,196.14/oz, while silver surged 3.32% for the week; London copper broke above USD 11,375/ton to a record high; all three major U.S. equity indices closed higher, led by the Nasdaq.

Weekly Performance & Fundamental Analysis Across Asset Classes

1. FX Market: Dollar Falls for Two Straight Weeks, Yen Rate-Hike Expectations Rise

U.S. Dollar Index:

Down 0.8% for the week to 99.00, marking the second consecutive weekly decline.

Major Currency Moves:

EUR/USD broke above 1.1650

GBP/USD touched 1.3300

USD/JPY fell below 155.00, marking its largest weekly decline since late September

关键驱动因素：

Fed Rate-Cut Probability Surges to 90%:

ADP employment fell by 32,000 (vs. expected +10,000), while initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000 (a three-year low). The conflicting data reinforced hopes for monetary easing.

BOJ Rate-Hike Signals:

Governor Kazuo Ueda stated the BOJ would “weigh the pros and cons of a rate hike.” The probability of a December hike climbed to 70%, pushing Japanese government bond yields to their highest levels since 2007.

2. Precious Metals: Silver Leads with Record High, Gold Consolidates at Elevated Levels

Spot Silver: +3.32% for the week to USD 58.25/oz

Spot Gold: -0.5% for the week to USD 4,196.14/oz

基本面分析：

Silver Supply-Demand Imbalance:

Explosive growth in photovoltaic demand, coupled with global inventories falling to a 10-year low. A spike in leasing rates highlights severe spot market tightness.

Safe-Haven & Rate-Cut Resonance:

Fed rate-cut expectations supported gold, though dollar resilience limited upside.

3. Commodities: Copper Hits Record High, Geopolitical Premium in Oil Eases

Copper Market:

LME copper rose over 2% to USD 11,375/ton

Shanghai copper main contract surged past RMB 90,000/ton

关键驱动因素：

Supply Disruptions:

A mining accident at Glencore’s Chile operations forced output cuts. LME canceled warrants surged, with Mercuria withdrawing 50,000 tons.

Tariff Avoidance Trade:

Traders rushed to ship physical copper to the U.S., driving regional spot premiums sharply higher.

Oil Market:

WTI crude closed flat for the week at USD 59.33/barrel

Bull-Bear Tug of War:

Progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks dampened geopolitical risk premiums

However, U.S. EIA inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels, exceeding expectations and capping gains

4. Equities & Bonds: U.S. Tech Stocks Lead, Japanese Bonds Face Heavy Selling

U.S. Equity Performance:

S&P 500: +0.3%

Nasdaq: +0.4%

Dow Jones: modest gains

Sector Highlights:

Tech stocks (Microsoft, Meta) outperformed on rate-cut optimism

Energy stocks underperformed

Bond Market Developments:

U.S. 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.138%

Japanese yield curve steepened sharply (30-year JGB yield rose to 3.445%)

5. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Stabilizes Above USD 93,000, Regulatory Overhang Persists

Major Tokens:

Bitcoin: +1.2% for the week to USD 93,075

以太坊随后走高

Policy Risks:

The PBOC reiterated its crackdown on illegal virtual-currency financial activities

The U.S. SEC intensified regulatory scrutiny

In-Depth Analysis of Core Events & Policy Backdrop

1. Fed December Rate Cut Now a Market Consensus

Data Support:

Weak ADP jobs data and stable PCE inflation at 2.8% provide room for monetary easing.

Personnel Changes:

Trump is reportedly considering nominating dovish candidate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, reinforcing expectations for further easing in 2026.

机构观点：

JPMorgan expects a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, followed by two additional cuts in 2026.

2. BOJ Rate-Hike Expectations Trigger Global Bond Market Shock

Policy Signals:

Ueda unusually referenced smooth communication with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, implying government acquiescence to a rate hike.

Market Impact:

Heavy selloffs in Japanese bonds spilled over globally; U.S. Treasury yields followed higher, intensifying unwinding pressure on carry trades.

3. Escalating Copper Supply Crisis

Inventory Alert:

LME stocks dropped below the critical 100,000-ton threshold, worsening spot tightness.

Demand Outlook:

AI computing power expansion and power grid upgrades are driving long-term demand. The IEA warns that global copper supply could face a 20% shortfall by 2035.

本周值得关注的主要经济事件

U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision

Policy meetings by multiple central banks:

Reserve Bank of Australia

Bank of Canada

Swiss National Bank

China’s Central Economic Work Conference (mid-December)

China’s November CPI & PPI

U.S. JOLTS job openings

Eurozone GDP & CPI