Last week, the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.40, marking its third consecutive weekly decline. Spot silver soared 6.38% to USD 61.97/oz, setting a new all-time high. U.S. tech stocks led losses, with the Nasdaq down 1.62%, while the Dow Jones rose 1.05% against the trend. Bitcoin hovered around the USD 43,000 level.

Market narratives centered on “policy divergence trades” and “AI bubble validation,” driving intense cross-asset volatility.

Weekly Performance and Fundamental Analysis Across Asset Classes

1. FX Market: Dollar Falls to Three-Week Low, Broad Gains in Non-USD Currencies

米ドル指数:

Down 0.6% for the week to 98.40. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps in December and launched a short-term bond purchase program (USD 40 billion in the first month). However, Chair Powell’s less-than-hawkish tone accelerated dollar selling.

主要な通貨の変動:

EUR/USD broke above 1.1700

GBP/USD reached 1.3300

AUD/USD rose in tandem

USD/JPY formed an inverted V pattern: rising to 156.50 early in the week before retreating as BOJ tightening expectations intensified

主な推進要因:

Fed policy easing: Powell acknowledged that U.S. nonfarm payroll data may be systematically overstated (by roughly 60,000 jobs per month), implying actual employment growth could already be negative

BOJ pivot approaching: Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that rate hikes will occur “more than once”, with markets pricing in a 90% probability of a December hike

2. Precious Metals: Expanding Silver Supply Deficit Attracts Record Speculative Inflows

Spot silver: +6.38% to USD 61.97/oz, third consecutive weekly gain

Spot gold: +2.48% to USD 4,300.38/oz

基本サポート:

Structural supply shortage: The Silver Institute estimates a 2025 global silver supply deficit of 117 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall

Rising financial demand: Fed rate cuts compressed real yields, pushing retail speculative participation to 40% (BIS data)

Institutional views: RBC forecasts average gold prices of USD 4,600 in 2026, while Goldman Sachs sees silver potentially breaking above USD 100

3. Equities and Bonds: Tech Rout Deepens, U.S. Yield Curve Steepens

米国株式のパフォーマンス:

Dow Jones: +1.05%

S&P 500: –0.63%

Nasdaq: –1.62%

Sector Divergence:

Banks and rate-sensitive stocks led gains

Technology stocks sold off sharply (Oracle –10%+, Broadcom –11%)

債券市場:

10-year Treasury yield: +5 bps for the week

30-year yield: hit its highest level since September

Core Tension:

Disappointing AI order monetization (Oracle’s Q2 revenue miss) intensified valuation compression in high-growth sectors.

4. Energy and Industrial Metals: Geopolitics vs. Supply-Demand Imbalance

原油：

WTI: flat on the week at USD 59/barrel

Brent: followed a similar pattern

Bullish and Bearish Forces:

Supply risks: The U.S. seized Venezuelan oil tankers carrying crude worth USD 80 million, with Iranian Revolutionary Guard involvement raising escalation risks

Demand pressure: India increased Russian oil purchases, Iraqi output recovered, and EIA inventories rose by 2.8 million barrels, exceeding expectations

Institutional outlook: Goldman Sachs and Citi expect continued downside pressure in 2026 due to oversupply

5. Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin Range-Bound Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

Bitcoin: weekly volatility fell to 8%, trading sideways

Ethereum: declined in tandem

Policy Environment:

The U.S. SEC stepped up scrutiny of stablecoins

The PBOC reiterated its stance against illegal crypto speculation

On-chain Data:

Whale addresses accumulated 15,000 BTC during the week

Derivatives open interest declined 12% month-on-month

Key Events and Policy Developments – In-Depth Analysis

1. Fed Policy Split Highlights Institutional Constraints

Voting breakdown: 9 in favor vs. 3 opposed

Goolsbee and Schmid opposed the cut

Milan advocated a 50 bps cut

Short-term bond purchases: USD 40 billion in the first month; Barclays projects USD 525 billion total by 2026

Political pressure: Trump criticized the cut as “too small,” hinting that future Fed leadership should support more aggressive easing

2. Global Central Banks Shift Toward Tightening

Bank of Japan: Ueda emphasized that hikes are “not the end,” with neutral rates possibly exceeding 0.75%

ECB: Executive Board member Schnabel stated that “the next move could be a rate hike,” with markets pricing a 30% probability in 2026

Spillover risks: A BOJ hike could trigger carry trade unwinds, intensifying capital outflows from emerging markets

3. Rising Geopolitical Risks Disrupt Supply Chains

Russia–Ukraine stalemate: Zelensky rejected unilateral troop withdrawals, while U.S.–EU disagreements over territorial concessions widened

Venezuela tensions: The first-ever U.S. seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers raises the risk of retaliation and a higher oil risk premium

Key Economic and Market Events to Watch This Week

1. Central Bank Decisions & Policy Events

BOJ rate decision (Dec 19): A 25 bps hike to 0.75% could push USD/JPY below 155

ECB & BOE decisions (Dec 18): Hawkish signals could drive EUR/USD toward 1.1800

連邦準備制度理事会の講演者:

Williams (Dec 15)

Milan (Dec 16)

Focus on 2026 policy path guidance

2. Economic Data Releases

U.S. Nov Nonfarm Payrolls (Dec 16): Consensus +35k; a print below 100k would reinforce easing expectations

U.S. Nov CPI (Dec 18): Core CPI below 3.0% YoY could cap any dollar rebound

Eurozone PMI Flash (Dec 15): A return above the expansion threshold may lift cyclical stocks

3. Corporate Earnings & Tech Events

Micron earnings (Dec 16): AI memory demand in focus

ByteDance Volcano Engine Conference (Dec 18): AI computing cost reductions may impact tech valuations

SpaceX IPO progress: Valuation reportedly nearing USD 800 billion, with Starlink revenue expectations fueling aerospace sector interest