Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Weaker Dollar Drives Gold to Five-Day Rally, Easing Geopolitical Expectations Weigh on Oil

April 2, 2026 — Global commodity markets showed a notable recovery trend amid the interplay of multiple macroeconomic factors. Spot gold extended its recent strong rebound, recording gains for the fifth consecutive trading session and steadily trading near the $4,800/oz level intraday. The primary driver behind this rally is the pullback of the U.S. Dollar Index from recent highs, which has created upward room for precious metals.

At the same time, although market sentiment has stabilized following earlier volatility, the repricing of inflation expectations and real interest rate trajectories has allowed gold to demonstrate strong resilience and sustained buying support after its first-quarter correction.

On the macro front, expectations of a marginal easing in geopolitical tensions have become a key factor in suppressing safe-haven premiums. As involved parties signal a potential end to military actions, previously heightened market anxiety has eased. This shift has directly triggered a correction in energy markets, with crude oil prices falling by more than 1% to around $98.85 per barrel.

Currently, the market is in a phase shaped by the dual forces of “cooling tensions” and “policy dynamics.” While short-term safe-haven demand has softened, continued weakness in upcoming macroeconomic data could enable gold to consolidate above $4,800 and potentially initiate a new structural uptrend.

資産パフォーマンスとファンダメンタル分析

1. 米国株式市場

インデックスパフォーマンス

S&P 500（SP500）： Around 6,530 points (6.53K), up 2.91%. After recent volatility, the index shows strong rebound momentum, with market sentiment shifting from defensive to risk-on, and earnings growth expectations being repriced.
ダウ・ジョーンズ工業株平均（DJI）： 46,565.74, up 224.23 points (+0.48%). Blue-chip value stocks remain resilient, holding above the 46,000 level and demonstrating adaptability to the current interest rate environment.
ナスダック100（NQ1）： 24,169.00, down 0.11%. Diverging from the broader rally, reflecting sector rotation as AI-driven premium capital flows into semiconductor hardware and application segments.

株式ハイライト

インテル（INTC）： $48.03, surged 8.84%, leading the market as investors price in process technology breakthroughs and supply chain localization benefits.
Google (GOOC) & Tesla (TSLA): Up 3.42% and 2.56% respectively. Tech giants show mixed performance, but growth stocks are benefiting from valuation recovery as rate expectations stabilize.
アップル（AAPL）： $255.63, up 0.73%, trading steadily above the $250 range with moderate performance.

2. 外国為替市場

米ドル指数（DXY）： 99.516, down 0.04%. Hovering below the key 100 level, with reduced bullish momentum as the Fed’s policy signals become more balanced.
ユーロ/米ドル: 1.15946, up 0.04%. The euro remains weak within a long-term consolidation range, with markets awaiting updated Q2 economic projections from the ECB.
米ドル/円: 158.658, down 0.08%. The yen finds support near 160, with carry trade unwinding and potential BOJ intervention limiting further depreciation.

3. 貴金属・コモディティ

貴金属

スポットゴールド（XAUUSD）： ~$4,786.98/oz, up 0.61%. Gold remains elevated above $4,700 despite prior sharp gains, supported by safe-haven demand and structural central bank balance sheet dynamics.
スポットシルバー（XAGUSD）： $75.712/oz, up 0.90%. Silver outperforms gold again, reflecting additional support from improving industrial demand expectations.

商品

原油（XTIUSD）： $97.93/barrel, down 1.24%. Prices faced selling pressure near the $100 level, as concerns grow that elevated oil prices could trigger secondary inflation and dampen demand.

4. 暗号資産とマクロダイナミクス

ビットコイン（BTCUSD）： $68,454, up 0.52%. Trading sideways below the $70,000 level, with markets watching ETF inflows and liquidity conditions.
イーサリアム（ETHUSD）： $2,150.93, up 0.50%. Moving in line with the broader market, lacking independent catalysts and remaining in a low-volatility consolidation phase.

5. 今日の焦点