Amillex Daily Market Commentary | On the Eve of Key Employment Data, Markets Enter the “Calm Before the Storm”

On January 9, 2026, ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payroll release, global financial markets entered a cautious “slowdown mode.” Investors shifted from aggressive, year-start positioning to a more defensive and observant stance, causing overall risk appetite to decline. Risk assets were generally consolidating at high levels, with volatility patterns changing as markets began repricing key macroeconomic variables. Silver, in particular, experienced significant short-term volatility, dropping sharply from $82.6 to around $75.5. This decline reflected both technical corrections triggered by high prices and easing concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on silver imports, which could have disrupted global supply chains. Market sentiment quickly moved from prior one-sided buying to active rebalancing, creating an overall atmosphere resembling a calm before the storm，appearing stable on the surface but with underlying turbulence.

マルチアセット市場のパフォーマンスとファンダメンタル分析

1. U.S. Equity Markets

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 49,000, down 0.94% on the day. The market’s cautious stance ahead of nonfarm data kept the index under pressure.
S&P 500: Closed at 6,920, retreating from yesterday’s all-time high.
Nasdaq: Showed relative resilience, rising slightly by 0.16% to 25,600. Despite broad weakness in the semiconductor sector, software giants like Alphabet (Google) were supported by robust cash flow expectations from AI applications, helping the index maintain flexibility.

Stock Highlights

Tesla (TSLA): Despite overall market fluctuations, Tesla recently oscillated sharply between $435–$450.

2. Forex Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): Continued to strengthen, testing resistance at 98.9, currently hovering near 98.85.
USD/JPY: Broke the 157 level, with short sentiment spreading; currently around 157.15.
EUR/USD: Support levels shifted lower, pressured around 1.16; currently near 1.1640.

Summary: The market widely expects the Fed to implement at least two rate cuts this year, but the exact timing and pace of policy remain highly uncertain.

3. 貴金属および商品

貴金属

Spot Gold (XAU/USD): Held steady on Thursday as markets entered a wait-and-see phase ahead of key data, closing around $4,452.64/oz.
Spot Silver (XAG/USD): Volatility significantly increased, dropping sharply by 4.29% on Thursday, breaking key support at $77.05/oz, and testing the important $75 upward trend line.

商品

WTI Crude Oil: After two consecutive days of decline, oil rebounded strongly on Thursday with a single-day gain of over 3%, closing at a two-week high. The short-term rebound was mainly driven by technical recovery and low-level buying, though the market remains highly attentive to geopolitical developments and actual supply fulfillment.

ドライバー: Precious metals markets are primarily influenced by repricing ahead of nonfarm data and Fed policy expectations, while energy markets continue to navigate supply-side uncertainty and short-term demand recovery. Cross-asset volatility has risen in tandem.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTC): Trading slightly below $90,000, showing resilience after recent selling pressure. Overall trading volume remains high, indicating active repositioning. Short-term trends remain in a consolidation range, with strong downside support.
Ethereum (ETH/USD): Supported by significant corporate accumulation and renewed institutional interest, remaining above $3,100. Market attention and activity for ETH remain elevated, with short-term volatility manageable.

5. Today’s Focus