Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Fed Decision Meets Inflation Uncertainty, Gold Holding Firm Around the 5000 Level

On 18 March 2026, global financial markets are sitting right in the middle of a complex macro environment. Concerns over energy supply triggered by specific geopolitical security developments have continued to support safe-haven demand, keeping gold prices well supported. During early Asian trading, spot gold moved within a narrow range and held above the key USD 5000.72/oz level.

Although risk premium remains elevated, the market is also facing bearish pressure from renewed inflation concerns. Slight movements in US Treasury yields together with a softer US Dollar Index are shaping a mixed structure for gold around the USD 5000 psychological level.

At the same time, energy market volatility has intensified. US crude oil climbed sharply to USD 95.22 per barrel as supply concerns worsened, reinforcing worries about cost-push inflation across major economies.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Overview

1. US Equity Market

Index Performance

DJI (Dow Jones): 46,993.26, up 0.10% intraday. The index remains trapped below the 47,000 psychological level, with investors staying cautious ahead of the Fed announcement.
SPX (S&P 500): 6,724.47, up 0.01%. Risk appetite remains limited due to uncertainty over future rate direction.
NDX (Nasdaq 100): 25,050.50, up 0.14%. Investors are reassessing valuations of growth stocks under a hawkish-neutral Fed outlook.

Stock Focus

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): USD 399.27, up 0.94%. Despite a generally quiet broader market, Tesla remained relatively strong and is approaching the key USD 400 level.

2. Forex Market

DXY (US Dollar Index): 99.580, up 0.02%. Expectations for unchanged Fed rates are already largely priced in, with further movement depending on any change in the dot plot outlook.
USD/JPY: 159.018, up 0.02%. The pair remains above 159, while yen weakness continues under interest rate differential pressure.
EUR/USD: 1.15363, down 0.03%. The euro remains under pressure from USD resilience and geopolitical risk premium, failing to break out of its current range.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Metalli preziosi

Gold (XAU/USD): USD 5,001.29/oz, down 0.09%. Safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical tension is currently offset by reduced expectations for rate cuts and higher holding costs.
Silver (XAG/USD): USD 79.29/oz, up 0.01%. Silver remains relatively steady, supported by its dual role as both industrial and financial asset.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTI/USD): USD 95.44/barrel, down 0.37%. A mild technical pullback followed recent strong gains, but supply-side support remains firm as concerns around the Strait of Hormuz continue.

4. Crypto and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): USD 73,750, down 0.24%. Crypto sentiment remains soft ahead of the Fed decision, reflecting defensive positioning under tighter liquidity expectations.
Ethereum (ETH/USD): USD 2,314.0, down 0.18%. ETH remains weak, with price still consolidating near lower support levels.

5. Today’s Focus