Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Renewed Middle East Conflict Fuels Safe-Haven Demand, Gold and Oil Enter a New Phase of Synchronized Trends

On March 31, 2026, global financial markets experienced a day of intensified geopolitical risk escalation on Monday, driving safe-haven assets back into focus. The situation in the Middle East deteriorated beyond expectations after Yemen’s Houthi forces launched their first attack on Israel, triggering widespread market anxiety. The potential expansion of the Iran conflict has heightened investor concerns over Red Sea shipping routes and oil transportation across the Arabian Peninsula.

Although the Federal Reserve has clearly signaled a firm stance of no rate cuts this year, monetary policy appears increasingly constrained in the face of extreme geopolitical risks. Spot gold recorded its second consecutive daily gain on Monday, holding steady near USD 4,502 per ounce in early Asian trading. Amid the tug-of-war between fundamentals and risk sentiment, gold has notably decoupled from the traditional interest rate cycle, demonstrating strong resilience and bullish momentum.

Multi-Asset Market Performance & Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equity Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 45,216.14, up 49.50 points (+0.11%). Amid rising risk aversion, capital rotated into defensive blue-chip value stocks, supporting the index above the 45,000 level.
S&P 500 (SP500): Approximately 6,370, down 108.31 points (-1.67%). Markets reassessed the impact of geopolitical risks on supply chains, exposing the vulnerability of high-valuation assets under macro uncertainty.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1!): Closed at 23,007.25, down 132.50 points (-0.57%). Tech stocks faced pressure as markets repriced inflation expectations and rising real interest rate concerns.

Stock Highlights

Tesla (TSLA) and Intel (INTC): Fell by 1.81% and 4.50%, respectively. Intel’s sharp decline reflects semiconductor sector concerns over potential trade barriers and rising energy costs.
Amazon (AMZN): Closed at USD 200.95, up 0.81% against the broader market trend, highlighting investor preference for mega-cap companies with strong cash flows.

2. Foreign Exchange Market

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): At 100.569, up 0.08%. The dollar’s safe-haven appeal strengthened amid geopolitical tensions, holding above the 100 level.
USD/JPY: At 159.869, up 0.08%, approaching the key 160 resistance level. Despite expectations of potential intervention by the Bank of Japan, yield differentials continue to support carry trades.
EUR/USD: At 1.14567, down 0.04%. Rising energy cost risks in Europe are capping the euro’s upside.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): At USD 4,527.63 per ounce, up USD 16.62 (+0.37%). Despite a stronger dollar, gold remains well-supported as a core safe-haven asset.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): At USD 70.006 per ounce, down 0.05%, consolidating around the USD 70 level.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): At USD 106.44 per barrel, up 1.11%. Rising energy prices are reinforcing inflation expectations and further limiting the scope for rate cuts.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Developments