November 4, 2025 — U.S. equities were mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq rising on strength in Amazon and Nvidia while the S&P 500 and Dow turned lower intraday. Cryptocurrencies plunged sharply, with Bitcoin down over 4% below $106,000 and Ethereum losing more than 8%. Spot gold rebounded back above $4,000 after an intraday dip, while oil prices found support as OPEC+ paused production increases. The market’s key themes centered around the ongoing tug-of-war between the “AI infrastructure arms race” and “policy uncertainty.”
U.S. Equities: Tech Stocks Lead Gains as AWS and OpenAI Sign $38B Compute Deal
Nasdaq rose 1% early in the session, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Dow fell 0.3%.
Amazon’s AWS signed a $38 billion compute agreement with OpenAI. OpenAI will use hundreds of thousands of Nvidia GPUs to support its $1.4 trillion AI infrastructure initiative.
Microsoft announced a $7.9 billion investment to expand AI cloud infrastructure in the UAE, and IREN received a $9.7 billion cloud order.
Core logic: Explosive AI capital expenditure (Google issued €3 billion in bonds) offset macro concerns, but the U.S. government shutdown (Day 34) continued to cap overall market breadth.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin Hits 2-Week Low Amid Regulatory and Technical Pressures
Bitcoin dropped over 4% to $105,600, its lowest since October 17.
Ethereum plunged 8% to $3,590, with Solana and BNB both falling over 5%.
Regulatory headwinds: The U.S. SEC intensified scrutiny of stablecoins, while China’s central bank reiterated its crackdown on speculative crypto trading.
Commodities: Gold Rebounds in V-Shaped Recovery; Aluminum Hits 2-Year High
Spot gold reversed from an intraday low of $3,960, closing up 0.36% to $4,017.
Policy shift: China scrapped its gold tax exemption policy; BullionVault said this could dampen demand in the world’s largest consumer market.
Industrial metals:
LME aluminum rose 0.9% to $2,909/ton, the highest since May 2022, up over 7% for October.
LME copper gained 0.2% to $10,903/ton, approaching record highs.
Oil: WTI crude slipped 0.5% below $61, as OPEC+ paused production hikes but demand concerns lingered.
Forex & Bonds: Dollar Steady, SOFR Rate Posts Sharpest Rise in 2 Years
FX: The U.S. dollar index held at 98.60, with the yen under pressure near 153.
Money markets: The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) spiked 18 basis points to 4.22%, the largest one-day jump since 2023, signaling month-end liquidity strain.
Europe: German DAX rose 0.8%, while the UK FTSE 100 edged down 0.04%.
Today’s focus:
RBA rate decision
Eurozone & U.S. PMI and employment data: Weak readings could reinforce easing expectations.
U.S. government shutdown: If unresolved, the October Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov 7 release) may be delayed.
Earnings:
AMD, Qualcomm (after hours): AI chip orders to validate OpenAI partnership outlook.
Palantir: U.S. commercial revenue growth above 50% could ignite AI data stock momentum.
BOE policy meeting: Market expects no change, but a wider vote split could heighten GBP volatility.
