October 3, 2025 – The U.S. government shutdown entered its third day, with economic data releases disrupted, heightening market uncertainty. Major U.S. equity indices showed divergence: chip stocks drove the Nasdaq to an intraday record high, while the Dow Jones and S&P 500 turned lower. Pharmaceutical stocks, after a strong rally, retreated, while Chinese ADRs extended gains. Precious metals fell sharply after cautious signals from Federal Reserve officials.

Equities: Chip Stocks and Chinese ADRs Outperform, Pharma Retreats on Profit-Taking

The Nasdaq set an intraday record high, boosted by chip stocks. Nvidia rose more than 2% in early trading, marking a third straight record close. AMD climbed nearly 4%, and Broadcom advanced more than 2%.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones both turned lower intraday, dragged by healthcare. The sector fell nearly 0.6%, with Pfizer, Merck, and Eli Lilly each down more than 1%, ending their two-day rally.

Chinese ADRs extended their rebound, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising more than 2% intraday. Alibaba at one point surged over 5% in early trading.

Tesla’s Q3 deliveries came in at 497,000 units, beating expectations, but the stock reversed after an early rally and fell nearly 1.7%.

Chip Stocks Strength: OpenAI’s employee share sale reportedly valued the company at $500 billion, highlighting the boom in the AI ecosystem and boosting Nvidia and other suppliers to new highs.

Pharma Pullback: Gains in prior sessions, coupled with the fading impact of tariff exemptions on pharmaceuticals, triggered sector rotation into technology.

Chinese ADR Resilience: Valuation recovery and policy expectations supported sentiment, with markets also eyeing potential U.S.-China thawing signals.

Precious Metals: Gold and Silver Retreat Sharply on Hawkish Fed Signals

COMEX gold futures fell more than 1%, while spot gold dropped about 1%, pulling back from fresh intraday records.

Silver sold off more sharply, with futures down more than 3% and spot prices sliding over 2%.

Fed’s Caution: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said “rate cuts must be approached very cautiously to avoid policy reversals,” dampening easing expectations.

Profit-Taking: After four straight record-setting sessions, some investors locked in gains. Nonetheless, the government shutdown and geopolitical risks remain medium- to long-term supports for gold.

FX and Commodities: Dollar Holds Steady, Oil Consolidates

FX Market: The U.S. dollar index moved narrowly as traders weighed shutdown risks against diverging policy paths between the Fed and ECB.

Oil Market: Crude prices remained rangebound, caught between OPEC+ supply expectations and U.S. inventory drawdowns, with no clear short-term direction.

Today’s focus

U.S. Government Shutdown Developments: If the deadlock persists, Friday’s scheduled nonfarm payrolls report will be delayed, adding to uncertainty.

Fed Speeches: Remarks from Fed officials including John Williams and Raphael Bostic could offer clues on policy direction in a shutdown environment.

U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls (TBD): If released, key metrics will be job growth, unemployment rate, and wage trends.

Eurozone PPI Data: Offers insight into inflation pass-through, influencing ECB policy expectations.

Corporate Earnings: Reports from consumer giants such as PepsiCo will shed light on demand resilience.