Amillex Daily Market Commentary | External Premium Reshapes Range, Gold Rebounds 3.5%, Oil Faces Divergence at High Levels

On April 1, 2026, global commodity markets reached a key turning point on Tuesday amid sharp external volatility. Spot gold surged on strong safe-haven demand, with intraday gains approaching 3.5%, successfully reclaiming the $4,650/oz level and currently stabilizing around $4,674. This move was primarily driven by escalating uncertainty, which rapidly lifted market pricing of potential risks. As recent signals from relevant parties suggest that the coming period will be a निर्णing phase for developments, the appeal of safe-haven assets has significantly strengthened. Gold’s swift recovery of prior losses highlights the resilience of bullish momentum under macro uncertainty, with markets closely watching whether this level can turn into firm support to withstand further volatility.

In contrast to gold’s strength, the energy market showed a pullback after a surge, as bullish and bearish signals intertwined. U.S. crude oil faced resistance after hitting intraday highs on Tuesday and is currently trading at $102.51/barrel. While supply concerns once drove premiums higher, easing sentiment—following indications of potential resolution pathways—offset earlier tension, leading to a rapid retreat from intraday highs. Currently, oil prices are in a high-level tug-of-war, with bulls focusing on actual supply disruptions while bears position for a shift in expectations. In the short term, oil may fluctuate widely around the $100 psychological level, as the market transitions from pure risk pricing toward a deeper assessment of future supply-demand rebalancing.

Asset Classes & Fundamental Analysis

1. U.S. Equities

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 46,341.51, up 1,125.37 points (+2.49%). The Dow significantly outperformed, reflecting large-scale capital inflows into traditional value stocks with stable cash flows amid macro uncertainty.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1): 24,017.50, up 0.43%. Tech stocks maintained gains, though upside was limited, with caution evident above the 24,000 level as rising rate expectations pressure growth valuations.
S&P 500 (SP500): ~6,340, down 0.39%. Sharp style rotation within the index saw profit-taking in heavyweight tech stocks offset gains in energy and industrial sectors, leading to consolidation at elevated levels.

Stock Highlights

Large-cap tech: Broad-based gains. Intel (INTC) led with a 7.14% increase, while Google (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA) rose 5.14% and 4.64%, respectively. Apple (AAPL) closed at $253.79, up 2.90%. Price action suggests renewed capital inflows into AI infrastructure and semiconductor sectors following recent corrections.

2. Foreign Exchange

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): 99.728, down 0.13%. The dollar remains under pressure below the 100 level, as policy dynamics slightly compress its safe-haven premium despite persistent inflation uncertainty.
EUR/USD: 1.15748, up 0.19%. The euro found support above 1.15, supported by stronger-than-expected inflation data that prompted repricing of tightening expectations.
USD/JPY: 158.762, up 0.02%. The yen remains weak. Despite intervention concerns, carry trades continue to dominate under sustained U.S.-Japan rate differentials.

3. Precious Metals & Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): $4,708.26/oz, up $41.19 (+0.88%). Gold extended its historic rally, breaking above $4,700 as markets continue pricing in long-term credit risks and geopolitical uncertainty, reinforcing its safe-haven premium.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): $75.110/oz, down 0.04%. Silver remains range-bound near $75, showing more industrial-driven hesitation compared to gold’s strength.

Commodities

Crude Oil (XTIUSD): $102.46/barrel, up 0.62%. Oil holds above the key $100 psychological level, supported by supply disruption concerns and structural capacity gaps amid the global energy transition.

4. Crypto Assets & Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): $68,225, up 0.01%. BTC is consolidating near $68K with notably reduced volatility, reflecting limited upside momentum in a high-rate environment.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): $2,112.80, up 0.44%. ETH remains weak and range-bound, underperforming BTC as market preference for application-layer assets declines.

5. Key Events to Watch