Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Tariff War Escalates Again, Gold Surges on Safe-Haven Demand

23 February 2026 – Global financial markets saw renewed volatility during the Asian trading session. Following the government’s hardline escalation of trade policies over the weekend, safe-haven capital flowed rapidly back into the metals market. Spot gold jumped in early Asian trade, hovering around USD 5,140. On the macro front, weakening US economic fundamentals provided solid justification for gold’s upside. The latest US fourth-quarter GDP growth came in at just 1.4%, well below market expectations, confirming a sharp slowdown in economic momentum under a high-interest-rate environment. Although the US Dollar Index posted its strongest weekly gain in nearly four months last week (reaching 97.80), under a backdrop of high tariffs and weak growth — a stagflation-like outlook — the dollar’s safe-haven appeal lagged behind physical gold.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. US Equity Markets

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): 49,625.97, up 0.47% on the day. Supported by heavyweight defensive sectors, the Dow outperformed broader markets, reflecting a shift toward value stocks with stable cash flows amid macro uncertainty.
S&P 500 (SP500): 6,879.32, down 0.48%. The index faced resistance below the 6,900 level, highlighting investor caution over valuation expansion, particularly due to weakness in consumer discretionary and technology sectors.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1): 24,884.50, down 0.73%. Growth stocks came under rebalancing pressure as real interest-rate expectations fluctuated, pushing the index into a choppy downward trend.

Stock Highlight

Tesla (TSLA): USD 411.82, marginally up 0.03%. While most tech stocks declined, Tesla held steady, showing resilience supported by company-specific fundamentals.

2. Forex Exchange Market

US Dollar Index (DXY): 97.366, down 0.43%. The dollar met resistance above the 97 level as markets began pricing in potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy, with liquidity gradually rotating into non-US currencies and safe-haven assets.
USD/JPY: 154.150, down 0.57%. Narrowing interest-rate differentials and renewed safe-haven demand for the yen pushed the pair below the key 155 level.
EUR/USD: 1.18328, up 0.47%. The euro recovered some ground on dollar weakness, though fragile European fundamentals capped further upside.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Precious Metals

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): USD 5,151.26 per ounce, up 0.84%. Gold extended gains after firmly holding above the USD 5,000 psychological level, as geopolitical risk premiums and long-term inflation expectations continued to be priced in.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): USD 86.6198 per ounce, surging 2.35%. Silver showed strong high-beta characteristics, with bullish momentum clearly outperforming gold.

Commodities

Crude Oil (XTIUSD): USD 65.97 per barrel, down 0.74%. Despite lingering geopolitical risks, concerns over slowing global growth dominated short-term pricing, triggering a technical pullback near the USD 66 level.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Developments

Bitcoin (BTCUSD):USD 67,262, down 0.52%. As risk appetite softened, Bitcoin slipped below USD 70,000, with volatility suggesting a lack of fresh inflows.
Ethereum (ETHUSD):USD 1,944.3, down 0.66%. Underperformed Bitcoin, reflecting declining on-chain activity and reduced risk allocation toward secondary crypto assets.

5. Key’s Focus