Amillex Daily Market Commentary: U.S. Government Shutdown Ends, Triggering Volatility in Risk Assets; Focus Shifts to Nvidia Earnings and September Nonfarm Payrolls
November 17, 2025 — The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.28% for the week to 99.26, a two-week low. Spot gold surged to a high of $4,245 before plunging more than $100 in a single session, though it still finished the week up 2.09%. The Nasdaq slipped 0.45%, while the Dow retreated after touching an intraday record high. Bitcoin fell below $95,000 as concerns over oil-market imbalances intensified.
FX Market: Dollar Loses the 99.5 Handle; Yen Weakens to 155, a Nine-Month Low
The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.28% on the week to 99.26.
EUR/USD climbed to 1.1618, and GBP/USD traded at 1.3165.
USD/JPY broke above 155 for the first time since February, fueling expectations of BOJ intervention.
Drivers:
Fed hawkishness: Several officials, including Cleveland Fed President Mester, stressed “sticky inflation,” pushing the probability of a December rate cut below 50%.
Data vacuum: With the shutdown delaying releases of NFP and CPI, markets leaned heavily on Fed commentary to recalibrate expectations.
Precious Metals: Gold Swings Sharply in a V-Shape as Safe-Haven Demand Competes with a Firm Dollar
Spot gold surged to $4,245 early in the week before tumbling more than 3% to $4,085 on Friday, still closing up 2.09% for the week.
Spot silver rose 4.61% to $50.58, with volatility markedly higher.
Fundamental Takeaways:
Upside support: The end of the U.S. shutdown coincided with rising geopolitical tensions (U.S. launches “Operation Southern Spear”), sustaining safe-haven demand.
Downside pressure: Hawkish Fed signals lifted real yields, triggering long-position unwinds. UBS noted global gold demand is at its highest since 2011, but short-term technicals remain overbought.
Energy Market: Oil Pressured by Worsening Supply-Demand Balance; OPEC Warns of Oversupply
WTI crude fell 1.8% for the week to $58.20, while Brent settled at $62.10.
Key Development:
OPEC’s monthly report revised its Q3 outlook from a “shortage” to “oversupply,” while the IEA raised its 2024 surplus forecast for the sixth straight month.
Supply–Demand Logic:
Supply pressure: U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.4 million barrels (above expectations), and Russian output hit a new high.
Limited geopolitical premium: Venezuela’s political turmoil has not disrupted supply, while demand concerns persist (China’s diesel exports up 25% in October).
Crypto: Bitcoin Falls Below $95,000 as Leverage Flush Accelerates
Bitcoin dropped 6.3% on the week to $94,800. Ethereum fell below $3,100.
Market Sentiment:
CoinGlass data shows weekly liquidations exceeded $12 billion, with leveraged long positions hit hardest. ETF outflows from institutional funds expanded.
Policy Impact:
The U.S. SEC intensified scrutiny of stablecoins, while the PBOC reiterated its stance against crypto speculation.
