Amillex Daily Market Commentary | Inflation Fears Resurge, Gold Pressured at Highs While Crude Oil Fluctuates Higher

On June 30, 2026, during the early Asian trading session on Tuesday, global multi-asset markets showed divergent trends due to supply chain disruptions and a resurgence of tight inflation expectations. Uncertainties in the external environment have directly intensified market concerns over future rising inflation, which in turn has allowed the expectation of a prolonged high-interest-rate environment to regain the upper hand. Constrained by the prospects of tightening monetary policy, the rebound momentum of spot gold was significantly suppressed, with intraday trading hovering around $4,020/oz, showing an overall narrow range of consolidation.

In contrast, the energy market demonstrated stronger resilience, supported by raw material and supply chain premiums in this round. Driven by potential supply disruption risks and safe-haven buying, WTI crude oil is currently trading around $70.23/bbl. At present, macro bulls are caught in a tug-of-war between commodity attribute premiums and the constraints of high real interest rates. The market focus going forward will be on the actual progress of global supply chain recovery. If supply-side pressures fail to ease effectively, commodity prices may continue to receive structural support, while gold prices will need to find a new equilibrium amid the saw-toothed battle between inflation expectations and elevated interest rates.

Asset Performance and Fundamental Analysis

1. US Stock Market

Index Performance

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Closed at 52,188.21 points, up 307.03 points or 0.59% intraday. Amid macro uncertainties, funds rotated toward traditional value blue-chip sectors, supporting the Dow to run steadily above the 52,000 mark.
S&P 500 Index (SP500): Closed at approximately 7.35K (7,350 points), slightly down 3.47 points or 0.05%. Bulls and bears locked horns near historical highs, with the broader market fluctuating within a narrow range around the flatline as the market prices in cross-quarter liquidity adjustments and macroeconomic resilience.
Nasdaq 100 Index (NQ1!): Closed at 30,067.00 points, slightly up 14.25 points or 0.05% intraday. Although core AI and semiconductor assets showed some resilience, internal sector divergence limited the upside for the tech index, keeping it above the 30,000 psychological threshold for technical bottoming.

Stock Highlights

Tesla (TSLA): Priced at $411.84, surging sharply by $32.13 or 8.46% intraday. Driven by specific industry catalysts or better-than-expected fundamentals, Tesla became the core focus of today’s trading, attracting massive bullish momentum and bucking the trend with a substantial rally.
Google (GOOGL): Priced at $353.65, significantly up $16.26 or 4.82%. Expectations of ongoing monetization in AI infrastructure and cloud business supported its stock price to hit a recent high, leading the performance among tech giants.
Amazon (AMZN): Priced at $240.14, up $7.45 or 3.20%. Resilient consumer spending and optimistic expectations for cloud capital expenditures provided upward momentum.
Intel (INTC): Priced at $131.72, up $3.40 or 2.65%. The valuation repair logic at the bottom of the semiconductor sector continued to guide capital inflows.
Apple (AAPL): Priced at $281.74, down $2.04 or 0.72% intraday. Against the backdrop of rallies in other mega-cap tech stocks, Apple performed relatively weakly, with capital engaging in temporary profit-taking and position adjustments at the cross-quarter juncture.

2. Forex Market

US Dollar Index (DXY): Currently at 101.185, up slightly by 0.074 points or 0.07% intraday. Amid a macroeconomic backdrop of unclear Fed monetary policy paths intertwined with inflation expectations, the US Dollar Index generally maintained range-bound fluctuations above the 101 level, with the market awaiting further macro data guidance this week.
USD/JPY (USDJPY): Currently at 161.954, up slightly by 0.010 or 0.01% intraday. Devaluation pressure on the Yen has yet to show any substantial relief, with the exchange rate firmly capped near the 162 level. Despite market vigilance over verbal interventions from the Bank of Japan, the objective existence of the US-Japan interest rate differential continues to limit the Yen’s rebound space.
EUR/USD (EURUSD): Currently at 1.14147, down slightly by 0.00091 or 0.08% intraday. As the expansionary momentum of Europe’s domestic economic prosperity slowed down at the margin, the Euro lacked sustained long momentum to break above 1.1400, giving back small gains in tandem with the narrow fluctuations of the US Dollar.

3. Precious Metals and Commodities

Qimmatbaho metallar

Spot Gold (XAUUSD): Priced at $4,005.76/oz, down $10.92 or 0.27% intraday. After hitting historical highs in the previous period, gold prices experienced a high-level retracement today. Along with a phased cooling of safe-haven sentiment, some bullish capital chose to lock in profits above the $4,000 psychological round number.
Spot Silver (XAGUSD): Priced at $58.08250/oz, down $0.22505 or 0.39% intraday. As a high-elasticity asset, silver’s decline was slightly larger than gold’s. After experiencing the extreme release of previous bullish sentiment, it is currently consolidating technically around the $58 mark.

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil (XTIUSD): Currently at $70.77/bbl, down $0.13 or 0.18% intraday. In the tug-of-war between potential supply disruptions and slowing macro demand expectations, oil prices entered a sideways pattern after breaking through the $70 resistance level in one go. Short-term bullish sentiment has cooled somewhat as the market reassesses new geopolitical risk premiums.

4. Crypto Assets and Macro Dynamics

Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Last traded at $59,784, down $380 or 0.63% intraday. Facing psychological and technical resistance at the $60,000 round mark, BTC underwent a significant pullback to build momentum. Expectations of a phased tightening in macro liquidity, combined with selling pressure from high-level profit-taking, capped short-term upward momentum.
Ethereum (ETHUSD): Last traded at $1,599.12, down $11.50 or 0.71% intraday. ETH continued its relatively weak performance, with the $1,600 psychological pivot facing pressure of a breakdown. Under the current macro pricing structure of marginal risk aversion, incremental capital for digital assets remains relatively scarce, and market liquidity is preferentially concentrating in traditional safe havens and core US equity assets.

5. Today Focus